Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

You know Britain ignores what is happening in other countries. I remember all the many comments about how what happened in Italy could never happen here.
The vaccines will reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. But we are going to get another wave.

cases in India are falling

@AlecTrevelyan006

cases in India are falling

Yep. They’ve had quite a severe lockdown to try and control the cases.

I assume you are not in favour of us going back into lockdown.

Cases in India are falling

That's probably why folk are ignoring it - good news never gets much coverage

With only 11% of the population jabbed I don't understand why though; given the insistence that it's "more transmissible" I wouldn't have expected a drop so soon, and isolation/social distancing's hardly an option in a lot of India

The rules vary from state to state but they’ve closed down anything that isn’t essential (and it is a stricter essential than our last lockdown), schools, a very restricted list of essential shops. Even those places that are essential work places might have a cap on the maximum number of staff they can have in. Most states require a covid test from anyone travelling into the state from elsewhere in the country and a 14day quarantine.

It's not looking good. Is it fair to say that the public have not been given much sense of the implications that a 50% more transmissive strain may have in terms of wave size compared to previous waves, even in the vaccination era?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984533/S1229_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Steps_3_and_4.pdf

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984546/S1230_LSHTM_Interim_roadmap_assessment_prior_to_steps_3_and_4.pdf

Oh goody, the old warwick wave of doom 😍

Why the panic? Because of media hype

For data wonks and chartists the Indian variant is well seeded and growing in multiple locations. The BIG question is how well will the vaccines hold and how many of the vulnerable are still to be done. ZOE has done a timely report.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-cases-by-local-authority-epidemiological-data-26-may-2021

covid.joinzoe.com/post/risk-covid-after-vaccine

@AlecTrevelyan006

cases in India are falling

A LOT are not being reported. Some very small villages that are just not counted. The numbers are most likely a huge under assessment.

Or it shows that our methods of prevention did nothing, as data from round the world has shown. Don't you think it odd how the flu magically disappeared due to all the measures yet don't work for coronavirus which is in the same family with similar transmission etc. They keep scaring us with new variants which are really samiants, they are only a few 0.1% different from the original. Your immune system isn't fooled by up to 20% differentiation. They tested the T-cells of those who SARS they still recognised SARS 2 which was 20% different.

Which is my overall point the media have been overhyping the negative to terrify us. Did you hear the story of the cruise ship which got covid? It burned through the place, what was the outcome? Same as the flu, same percentage of people died. Was this sent round the world as a good news story it's all good covid isn't as scary as we thought? No, nothing, not a peep. Just like they aren't talking about the protests for our freedom.

@user1497207191 meant to tag you in the above

Can't scare us with death or hospitalisations stats because the figures are so low. Now it's "cases".

@Ianar

Can't scare us with death or hospitalisations stats because the figures are so low. Now it's "cases".

Who was it who used to say "And what do points make...? PRIZES!"

Cos what do cases make? HOSPITALISATIONS.

I’d have thought if you wanted the backlog in the nhs cleared you’d want to keep hospitalisations as low as possible.

MN is this weird place where people simultaneously want the NHS to get back to normal while also only wanting restrictions when the nhs is in danger of getting overwhelmed. Conveniently forgetting that by the time we hit that point, we’ve already cancelled elective procedures.

There might only be 10 patients in a hospital with Covid. But the 11th patient requires a whole new ward to be converted to red, which means a wards worth of elective beds that can’t be used.

@CosmicHeat

Or it shows that our methods of prevention did nothing, as data from round the world has shown. Don't you think it odd how the flu magically disappeared due to all the measures yet don't work for coronavirus which is in the same family with similar transmission etc. They keep scaring us with new variants which are really samiants, they are only a few 0.1% different from the original. Your immune system isn't fooled by up to 20% differentiation. They tested the T-cells of those who SARS they still recognised SARS 2 which was 20% different.

Which is my overall point the media have been overhyping the negative to terrify us. Did you hear the story of the cruise ship which got covid? It burned through the place, what was the outcome? Same as the flu, same percentage of people died. Was this sent round the world as a good news story it's all good covid isn't as scary as we thought? No, nothing, not a peep. Just like they aren't talking about the protests for our freedom.

Don't you think it odd how the flu magically disappeared

It hasn't disappeared - it's just A LOT less serious than covid - so when suppressed by social distancing, it's meant close to zero fatalities.

They keep scaring us with new variants which are really samiants, they are only a few 0.1% different from the original
A rat is only a few % different from a human, DNA speaking - are you a rat?

Your immune system isn't fooled by up to 20% differentiation

Your immune system could be fooled by 0.000000001% change if it fixated on the bits that changed, or it could cope with 99.999999% change if it fixated on the bits that DIDN'T change.

They tested the T-cells of those who SARS they still recognised SARS 2 which was 20% different.

I'm aware of a report on a SINGLE SARS survivor who had developed antibodies capable of dealing with ANY Coronavirus - (see the 99.9999% comment above). This is NOT standard for SARS survivors. Perhaps in your deluded universe, people get a cold once in their lives and are then immune to all future infections???

It burned through the place, what was the outcome? Same as the flu, same percentage of people died

Nope ~712 cases resulting in 13 deaths giving an IFR of 1.8%

For Seasonal Flu, the IFR is estimated to be around 0.039%
www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3410/rr-6

With the exception of young children, who are strongly affected by flu, but very weakly by covid, covid is a MUCH more serious illness and you'd need 46 Diamond Princesses subject to influenza outbreaks to achieve the same fatalities.

We are currently on Day 8 of isolation (3rd isolation period now 🙄) because DS (11) tested positive on LFD and then confirmed by PCR, we are in a high incidence of the Indian Variant and although I have tried to get an Eagle test there are no local test sites. When I queried this, I was told the labs test for variants automatically now. Anyway, both DH and myself have had one vaccine. We both believe we had COVID in March 20-both quite ill- before you could get tested (I was working as a nurse at the time, since quit the profession) and then I randomly tested positive earlier this year during routine PCR at work. I had received vaccine 1 of the Oxford by then. I isolated, but I believe this was a false positive and did not develop symptoms. Neither did DH or my 3 children.

DS was already isolating this time when he developed symptoms as there was a confirmed case in his school bubble. He had a temp the first night and headaches for a couple of days. He is now recovered and is LFD negative. So far the rest of us have remained symptom free and LFD negative. So although its a bit rubbish to be stuck in again (4th June is the break for freedom here!), a bit of a positive story about exposure to COVID post one vaccine. I haven't isolated DS from the rest of us either. Really hope this is our last isolation period now though.