Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

There was a post on here a couple of weeks ago from a lady who was being put under a huge amount of pressure to sign a document for a gp (I think she may have worked in a surgery). The gp was going to India on an extended trip. The document he wanted signing was to say that he didn’t have time to quarantine on his return because of medical demands. At the time of posting she was standing her ground. I do wonder how many other people are travelling to India, mixing with infected people unwittingly and then returning home and not isolating.

[quote Doireallyneedaname]@RockingMyFiftiesNot I read that none of those who had 2 doses died.[/quote]
Wouldn't matter either way - vaccines don't STOP death - they reduce the average person's risk - that means some die. How many depends on HOW effective the vaccine is.

Against Kent variant, we were looking at 90+% effectiveness. That means out of 10 unvaccinated people who WOULD have died, only 1 vaccinated person would.

We won't know a % for the Indian variant for months yet.... 89%? 85%? 80%? or less?? But the spread has mostly been within the younger generations early on - it's only recently started spreading to the older people.

What you CAN be certain of - if the virus is spreading, and R is above 1, then eventually the deaths will come again. It's as inevitable as the sun rising tomorrow. People struggle to grasp exponential growth which is what R>1 signifies - every epidemic starts with a handful of cases. We can call this a new wave of covid, or a new epidemic of the Indian variant.

My 4 young kids can live without catching this Indian variant thanks. And I'm sure nobody wants their kids sick with it. Highly unlikely they'll get need a vaccination any time soon.

[quote eandz13]@Belladonna12 I don't mean to be arsey but how could she be responsible for any deaths by refusing the vaccine? Other than potentially her own. You can still catch and pass on covid when you have the vaccine, it just reduces your chances of becoming severely unwell. I'm open to correction as I genuinely don't keep up to date with covid news anymore. [/quote]
Your risk of passing on covid (variants present in the UK prior to the Indian variant) is reduced between 80 and 90% following ONE dose of the vaccine.

Nobody can ever present a hospital as a totally risk free environment, but as a patient, you EXPECT doctors and nurses to try to minimise that risk. If they do not, they should be sacked.

@Belladonna12 ahh I see. Like I say I haven't really looked into it at all recently, that was just the last I'd heard. Thanks!

I don't get it either - even though most under 40s haven't been vaccinated, there's no indication it is more serious than the other strains, just more contagious. So even if lots of us young people catch it, so what? Yes, there's a risk of long Covid, but it's not large.

The vast majority of those ill enough to be hospitalised with it are older people who refused the vaccine, and I find it hard to feel too sorry for them frankly. This is why societal vaccine programmes exist and you need a minimum uptake or they don't work. These people are a perfect illustration of that. I refuse to restrict my lifestyle for the protection of anti-vaxxers. And yes, there will be a very small number of people who can't have the vaccine due to cancer treatment or whatever, but those are vanishingly small and also at risk of other diseases that we never used to shut down society for. And I say this as someone who has a very young relative with cancer.

Your risk of passing on covid (variants present in the UK prior to the Indian variant) is reduced between 80 and 90% following ONE dose of the vaccine

Where’s this from? I’ve seen lots of figures around 50% but not 80-90%.

Leonardsgirl. I got chatting to two women in a pub garden yesterday. Both late 50s/early 60s. Both nurses, one in a cancer unit. Told me they wouldn't be having jabs and they'd been hugging family and friends throughout. I was pretty shocked. I don't know anyone who has refused the vaccine.

Genuine question. Maybe they have had covid? When I was in hospital last month, every member of staff bar one ( who said she tested positive for antibodies) had covid. I'm not saying that's a good reason to turn down the vaccine but maybe it's a factor? I had covid and then my vaccine two months later which did feel a tiny bit pointless so soon after I fought it off

We don’t have much data to answer the above questions at present, but one piece of evidence which will be taken into account is an observational study of 3,235 healthcare workers based at the Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi. The group, all of whom had been vaccinated with the Covishield vaccine – as the AstraZeneca vaccine is branded in India – were subsequently tested for Covid 19. Of the 3,235, 85 were found to have the infection, 65 of whom had been fully-vaccinated and 20 of whom had had one jab. The study, reported in the Hindustan Times, observed that the hospitalisation rate was just 0.06 per cent – which means that just two of the workers can have suffered a serious enough illness as to require hospital treatment. There were no ICU admissions or deaths in the group.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-the-indian-covid-variant-a-more-potent-strain-

[quote Doireallyneedaname]Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181[/quote]
What panic are you referring to?

How is it that after a year people still don't realise why variants are an issue, vaccine or no vaccine

@Leonardsgirl

Where are these area where kids 11-22 are being affected and hospital cases are rising. I'm in London and cases don't appear to be rising in my area. Is it happening in areas we don't know about, rather than places like Bolton which are in the news?

There have been a few small areas around the country where cases have suddenly surged due to a lot of children in a secondary school being infected. It hasn't just happened in Bolton .I don't know how much that has all will translate into hospital cases rising but there's always a lag so it wouldn't be expected to happen straight away.

OP, I really haven't seen any panic from anyone.

Where do you see this?

I do see some people being cautious until we know more, but cafes were busy this morning, people going about their business. Nobody's panicking.

@Needanewhat

How is it that after a year people still don't realise why variants are an issue, vaccine or no vaccine

Doesn’t that depend on the variables of the variant?

Are you assuming it has particular ones? - which for the Indian one

Because in our area many who would benefit from the vaccine considering their heritage are refusing the vaccine.

But mainly because some people are just loving the drama now and seem stuck in this loop of panic.

Not sure whether this has been touched upon elsewhere on this forum but does anyone know the reasons for some areas having low uptake on the jabs?

I do think that it's bad timing that face masks will not be used in Secondary schools just as the new variant seems to be taking hold in some areas. That's plain stupid.

What panic are you referring to?

I was wondering the same thing.

Mary In my area it's because of religious reasons, and we have a high population in the community who fall into that demographic.

It is a concern because depending on exactly how transmissible it is, how quickly we can get people vaccinated and what other restrictions we keep in place, there is a real likelihood that it could cause a third wave of cases with a possibility of hospitalisations even being worse than the one in January this year. There is a guy that has done a Twitter thread about the different models which I will post if I can find it

@QwertyGirly

OP, I really haven't seen any panic from anyone.

Where do you see this?

I do see some people being cautious until we know more, but cafes were busy this morning, people going about their business. Nobody's panicking.

I do feel some sense of panic. Germany put the UK back on the list of ‘risk countries’ because of the Indian variant despite the UK’s vaccination programme and very low case rate. Of course the variant is already in Germany anyway so it seems like a panic move.

There are lots and lots of warnings in the media, Sage and other scientists being quoted with bleak outlooks and ‘worse than the winter wave’ scenarios.

It’s depressing and I’m feeling totally deflated. Just as things were starting to look up.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1393932001271554049.html
Here it is.

Well then isn't it just perfect timing that masks are no longer required in secondary schools as of today? That seems jolly sensible, no?

There is a significant problem with particular ethnic minorities refusing the vaccine. There is a lot of misinformation circling on private WhatsApp groups.

I know people whose relatives died from covid who still will not have the vaccine because of this (my mother is from one of the cultures in question).

@MontysRoseGarden

Wonder if those in hospital will now have the vaccinations!

Surely they won't need them.