Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

@Cornettoninja

Did they break it down any more than that *@DenisetheMenace*? They usually break it down into efficacy percentages against mild illness/severe/fatalities - I appreciate they might not have gone that in-depth yet through.

@MarshaBradyo, I agree that it’s all very open for debate and dependent on personal interpretation. I haven’t seen much to sway my current take on the situation but I’m absolutely open to the possibility of this changing. While I think it’s important that hindsight takes into account the facts/mood of the time, it’s important to have a true analysis of actual events. I’m very interested to see how everything is presented in the future.

That 97% figure has been quite widely debated. It isn't a robust study because not everyone in that group was necessarily in contact with the virus, so what they are really saying is of that group, 3% got ill. Which is not the same as saying 97% were prevented from becoming ill due to the vaccine - because some were presumably never exposed at all.

Explainer is here: twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1394043558567555073

Thanks @picturesandpickles, I wonder what the disease severity breakdown is in that 3%? I suspect I’m going to be told the sample size is too small to draw any reliable conclusions though!

@Cornettoninja

Thanks *@picturesandpickles*, I wonder what the disease severity breakdown is in that 3%? I suspect I’m going to be told the sample size is too small to draw any reliable conclusions though!

It is about 90 people in total so not much of a pool.

Cornetto me too. I’d love insight after it’s over. Whilst SAGE statements are within their remit I’d love to ask Whitty / Valance their views on timing and other stuff. Not sure if I missed it maybe they said something on it already.

@MarshaBradyo I don’t think they have, I imagine it’s politically very sensitive. I’ll be pre-ordering their memoirs in a few years though!

Yep! Not sure if they’d sign a life long NDA or maybe too professional to write them, but if they said things on timing etc I’d take it as correct.

Of the Drs in India who are recorded as dying with coronavirus, about 3% were vaccinated.
But even that is not accurate as the articles I have read quote medics saying that not all Drs who have died have been recorded in the official stats.

I really dont thimk there are many, if any, 'lockdown lovers'. Just people who see this entire situation differently and approach their lives with different levels of risk.

Load of fuss over nothing.

Oh, good one.

"The number of confirmed cases in the UK of the Covid variant of concern that was first detected in India has risen more than 160% in the past week, data shows..."

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/20/confirmed-cases-of-india-variant-in-england-rise-160-in-a-week

Only 160%!

Outbreaks are going to continue where you get pockets within a community who are not vaccinated.

Anti vaccers don't seem to care how much damage they cause. They don't care about the wider impact.

@Torvean

Outbreaks are going to continue where you get pockets within a community who are not vaccinated.

Anti vaccers don't seem to care how much damage they cause. They don't care about the wider impact.

Vaccine refusers are not the issue, this is a lie being spread to blame victims and mask government policy responsibility.

Only 55% of people have had their jabs because we are only offering to 36+ currently. There is a pool of unvaccinated people including children. Children are not anti-vax ffs, they have no option.

We are only just over a third of the way through the full vaccination programme.

This is happening because:

• the Vax programme is part way through
• this variant is more transmissible
• our border policy was poor
• TTI failed again
• UK has inadequate isolation support
• schools are inadequately mitigated

Government policy has been a bigger factor than a low percentage of vaccine hesitant people. Bolton for example has national average uptake. Plenty in hospital have had their first jab.

Plenty in hospital have had their first jab.

What’s the numbers? In ICU in particular

5 are in hospital having had their first jab. I don’t think they’re in ICU.

What I would love to know how they can say In all certainty.
That anyone under 50 who gets covid won't end up in hospital and very ill.
We know younger ages were hospitalised in the India but we saying Indian health care or lack of and plus they poorer.
But there's plenty wealthy affluent Indian people who died also .

Also we know bame especially vulnerable in uk we seen that via the 1st 2 waves yet they never been made a vaccine priority and the current hot spots up north have high amount of bame so again could easily add pressures to local healthcare.

We told numerous press conferences In the past by jvt..
Theres a lag hospitalisation will follow and sadly deaths are already baked in to cases.
Now we told cases don't matter there won't be many in hospital or deaths.

A school in my neighbouring West Midlands area has cases of the Indian variant among students. It's not linked to travel.

www.expressandstar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2021/05/19/testing-of-pupils-and-staff-under-way-after-covid-19-indian-variant-cases-identified-at-sandwell-school/

Bolton may as a whole have had a high vaccine uptake ,however the post code,s of concern ie BL3 and BL4 had a low uptake,I live in BL3 ,several Bolton schools have now had burst bubbles,and according the local news,the Royal Bolton hospital,have opened another covid ward.
They are surge testing and we have had door step visits with tests but only in the last week or so .

There are now just over 700 cases in London, out of a population of over 9m. Minimal hospitalisations. I think that's very positive news. And for what feels like the first time in over a year, Covid is not high on the news agenda. We're moving on and that's a good thing. Next I just need my holiday to go ahead!

What I would love to know how they can say In all certainty.
That anyone under 50 who gets covid won't end up in hospital and very ill.

They can’t. But equally they never have said they, so I don’t really understand your point.

They can say, with certainty, that numbers under 50 requiring hospitalisation will be much lower.

Bold fail

I think the problem was that we thought we were heading for the touch line and then another variant popped up. We need to get the whole world vaccinated or as many as possible to end the cycle. It annoys me that India were given vaccines for the poor and sold them to other countries that is criminal. And yes I have read a few articles about that fact. I hope it's fake news but knowing people maybe not.

@unwuthering

Load of fuss over nothing.

Oh, good one.

"The number of confirmed cases in the UK of the Covid variant of concern that was first detected in India has risen more than 160% in the past week, data shows..."

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/20/confirmed-cases-of-india-variant-in-england-rise-160-in-a-week

Only 160%!

It doesn’t matter how many cases there are so long as hospital admissions and deaths remain low

Exactly PP.

It doesn’t matter how many cases there are so long as hospital admissions and deaths remain low

I agree to some extent but we don't really know if hospital admissions and deaths will remain low. Many of those who are vulnerable have not yet received two doses.