Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

@EducatingArti

It isn't just because of vaccines we've been able to come out of lockdown. Cases are very low at present which is also because of the lockdown. It remains to be seen if cases will remain low with the new more highly transmissible variant.

It's ENTIRELY because of vaccines.

R has been continuously below 1 which is the crucial thing. That resulted in the low number of cases you refer to.

R is now considerably above 1 in the regions affected by the Indian variant, so once it spreads nationally, the technical term is bugger.

@TatianaBis

You don't have to test every single variant. If you test 10% and they all the Kent variant , then it is very likely that all the strains are the Kent one. If a strain is more transmissible there will be more infections and more deaths. You don't know that it would have happened anyway and so far Covid 19 hasn't been particularly seasonal. The first wave was during our spring and early summer. It certainly didn't coincide with flu season.

I didn’t say you have to test every single variant, I said you’d have to test very single person who died of Covid to be sure which strain they died of. Testing 10% won’t answer that question precisely.

Covid started in November/December 2019 it was just that it wasn’t transported here until later.

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses, most of which cause common colds, 3 which cause serious respiratory infections, all of which are more prevalent and transmissible in winter.

Colds are more prevalent in Spring/Autumn Influenza is the winter bug.

Secondly the fact that sars-cov-2 is a member of the coronavirus family means precisely bugger all in the context you are trying to claim. It's like saying that tuna probably tastes like cod because they're both fish.

@bookworm1632

First of all it wasn’t I who misquoted it, it was misquoted in a media report. I went to fish out the original.

Secondly, I clearly said to the pp that I understood that it was of hospitalised patients, which is correct.

Your claim that the % ‘are those who died’ is incorrect. That’s the same mistake as the media report made.

Quote:

Of 341 patients admitted to UCL and NMUH who and their Covid 19 tests swabs sequenced -

“No evidence of an association between the B117 variant [ie Kent] and increased disease severity was detected, with 36% of B117 patients becoming severely ill or dying, compared with 38% with non B117 strain”.

“Those with B117 were no more likely to die than patients with a different strain with 16% dying within 28 days compared to 17% for those with a non B117 strain”.

www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/apr/uk-variant-b117-does-not-increase-disease-severity-hospitalised-patients

Colds are more prevalent in Spring/Autumn
Influenza is the winter bug.

Colds and influenza are both more prevalent in the winter months when the temperature and humidity drops, and when people spend more time inside. There’s also some evidence that nasal passages being cooler and drier in the cold air increases susceptibility.

The cold season is autumn - spring: from September/October when the weather starts to cool, to April when it starts to warm.

I'm sorry but I really don't think this is good news ref the Indian Variant. I think its going to spread out of control. I am one of the people who has been very positive and was sure everything was going to go back to normality. Sorry but this I my opinion:-(

We know from other studies that the Kent strain put significantly MORE people in hospital in the first place - it is/was probably 20-30% deadlier than the previous strains.

@bookworm1632 The B117 strain (Kent variant) was found to be more transmissible but not more deadly - study published in April.

www.contagionlive.com/view/sars-cov-2-b117-variant-more-transmissible-not-more-deadly

I didn’t say you have to test every single variant, I said you’d have to test very single person who died of Covid to be sure which strain they died of. Testing 10% won’t answer that question precisely.

If 10% of those who died are tested and they all have a particular variant than it is safe to assume the vast majority of people that have died had that variant.

@TatianaBis

Colds are more prevalent in Spring/Autumn Influenza is the winter bug.

Colds and influenza are both more prevalent in the winter months when the temperature and humidity drops, and when people spend more time inside. There’s also some evidence that nasal passages being cooler and drier in the cold air increases susceptibility.

The cold season is autumn - spring: from September/October when the weather starts to cool, to April when it starts to warm.

I'm not sure what your point is. Just because colds/flu reduce in summer in the UK it doesn't mean covid will.. Countries that are much warmer than the UK have been just as hard hit.

I’m talking about what’s occuring now.

Which is a doubling of cases in one week - during lockdown.

@unwuthering

I’m talking about what’s occuring now.

Which is a doubling of cases in one week - during lockdown.

Yes the increase in cases since last Thursday alone is very worrying.

The government are being too slow to respond again.

@unwuthering

I’m talking about what’s occuring now.

Which is a doubling of cases in one week - during lockdown.

This isn’t ‘lockdown’

@bumbleymummy there was no indoor mixing until yesterday is the point, so the fear is the doubling will accelerate now.

@AlecTrevelyan006

I remember the good old days when it was all about getting the most vulnerable vaccinated.

Now, everyone has to be vaccinated. At least twice. Preferably three times, while wearing full PPE gear and staying at home alone until 2024.

🤣🤣

[quote picturesandpickles]@bumbleymummy there was no indoor mixing until yesterday is the point, so the fear is the doubling will accelerate now.[/quote]
Exactly. There’s been a massive push on hand washing but that’s not the major route for transmission. People are going to be sitting for ages indoors most likely in poorly ventilated rooms without wearing masks. Brilliant for an airborne respiratory virus.

Agog that the Kent variant didn't live up to the hype! It's caused a 3rd wave across Europe with many, many deaths!

@picturesandpickles

The percentages will get revised if they change, but you can't ignore what you have. The models have a method for dealing with high or low levels of certainty.

30% is 30%. If next week it is still 30% that is more evidence, if it is 15% that is more evidence.

But when the government are saying the ages range from 35-65, and x percentage had one vaccination and x percentage had two and the rest could have been vaccinated but didn’t it IS misleading when it’s based on 20 people. It suggests that 5% of people who have been fully vaccinated may still end up in hospital from this variant whereas if it’s just one person it could be due to a number of factors (such as compromised immune system). Those people who had one vaccination could have only been vaccinated a week ago and the ones who could of been vaccinated but didn’t bother might have only been eligible for a few days but I’ve heard people already saying Bolton is suffering because it has high levels of ethnic minorities who don’t want to get vaccinated. It’s just not accurate data.

You wouldn’t (shouldn’t) say an areas got a 3x increase in cases if it has gone from 4 to 12 because although it’s technically true it’s just such small numbers it’s not accurate!

That’s because you believe what the government says without analysis.

It formed part of the second wave. But even in London where it was prevalent, according to the research quoted above, it was only just over half the cases at 58%.

You wouldn’t (shouldn’t) say an areas got a 3x increase in cases if it has gone from 4 to 12 because although it’s technically true it’s just such small numbers it’s not accurate!

No, you would state the three-fold increase, it is accurate, but with low certainty of that remaining the pattern going forwards. You can be sure the mathematical experts are able to handle the numbers they are working with. They have factored all these aspects into their comments and advice to the government.

The Director of Public Health in Bedford has today said they have seen a ten-fold increase in daily cases: About three or four weeks ago we were having three or four cases a day. We are now up to 10 times that. A pattern like that should be treated as an early warning to be heeded as soon as possible.

My post was to UberMullet ^

@TatianaBis

That’s because you believe what the government says without analysis.

It formed part of the second wave. But even in London where it was prevalent, according to the research quoted above, it was only just over half the cases at 58%.

Have you looked at the dates? They only sequenced up to December 20 which was fairly near the beginning of the second wave. It certainly doesn't demonstrate that the Kent variant was only responsible for half the cases during the second wave.

@bookworm1632 It's ENTIRELY because of vaccines.

So you don't think the lockdown/restrictions have had any impact at all then?

What about early January when infection rates started to fall steeply but relatively few people had even had their first dose?

The graph of infection rates in Jan/Feb is very similar to the graph of infection rates last April. That suggest that restrictions/lockdowns DO have a massive impact.

@Belladonna12

Find later data to show that’s not representative then.

You’re the one arguing that if you test 10% of those who died “it is safe to assume the vast majority of people that have died had that variant”.

Which makes no sense scientifically, as science is based on data not assumptions. And you presume that the ‘vast majority’ of those 10% test positive for the variant, which the data to hand contradicts.

But either you’re ok with making extrapolations based on the test data or you’re not.

[quote user1497207191]**@bookworm1632* It's ENTIRELY because of vaccines.*

So you don't think the lockdown/restrictions have had any impact at all then?

What about early January when infection rates started to fall steeply but relatively few people had even had their first dose?

The graph of infection rates in Jan/Feb is very similar to the graph of infection rates last April. That suggest that restrictions/lockdowns DO have a massive impact.[/quote]
You've taken my quote and attributed a completely different argument to it.

The original claim from AP was "It isn't just because of vaccines we've been able to come out of lockdown. "

Lockdown effectively ended just before Easter - since then slowly but surely we've been emerging from it. This progress is all due to vaccinations which have taken up the mantle that the restrictions held in keeping R< 1.

[quote bumbleymummy]We know from other studies that the Kent strain put significantly MORE people in hospital in the first place - it is/was probably 20-30% deadlier than the previous strains.

@bookworm1632 The B117 strain (Kent variant) was found to be more transmissible but not more deadly - study published in April.

www.contagionlive.com/view/sars-cov-2-b117-variant-more-transmissible-not-more-deadly[/quote]
That's the study I previously rubbished.

It doesn't show anything of the kind - it ONLY looked at patients ALREADY hospitalised - just READ IT for christ's sake instead of just reading the headline!

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579

THIS study was on ~54906 people - 100x the number from your quoted study, and suggests that the Kent strain is ~ 64% more deadly.

I read the preprint paper in full actually. Did you? Interested to see how you’ve ‘rubbished it’.