Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

Because some people even those with little to fear from covid have been whipped into a frenzy of fear.

Instead of healthy fit adults thinking that the chance of having a hospital admittance with covid is very very tiny they worry unnecessarily. They haven't yet had the vaccine and they worry. There are around 1000 people in hospital with covid over the entire country.
Fear works.

Cases have gone up in my part of London by a third in a week. From a low starting point but it's the first time in a long time there's an upwards change.

People don't seem to realise that scientists would choose increased lethality over increased transmission because the latter ends up with a higher mortality rate.

What scientists are these? It’s precisely scientists who have flagged that increased transmission of a milder variant is of less concern than the influx of a more lethal strain which needs less transmission to kill more people. Scientists are not all one homogenous mass.

The mortality rate for the Kent strain is 36%, the mortality rate of general strains is 38%.

Fear works

Yes and to be fair, scientists on a pandemic committee that advises SAGE, who encouraged the use of fear to control behaviour during the pandemic, have admitted its work was “not ethical” in a new book:

One psychologist on the team, said: “Clearly, using fear as a means of control is not ethical. Using fear smacks of totalitarianism. It’s not an ethical stance for any modern government.”

Am I being really thick @TatianaBis. Are you saying that 36% of the people with the Kent variant die, and 38% for the original variant?

@NoMLMbots

Because some people even those with little to fear from covid have been whipped into a frenzy of fear.

Instead of healthy fit adults thinking that the chance of having a hospital admittance with covid is very very tiny they worry unnecessarily. They haven't yet had the vaccine and they worry. There are around 1000 people in hospital with covid over the entire country.
Fear works.

There are around 1000 people in hospital with Covid over the entire country. Yes, but this is after 3 months of lockdown plus another 3 months of heavy restrictions. 60% of the adult population have still not had both vaccines. If the new Indian variant is allowed to travel unrestricted even though the under 25's, a huge number of people could be infected. Even if the risk to every individual is low, a small proportion will still be hospitalised, plus the small proportion of people in older age groups for whom the vaccine does not prevent severe disease. A small proportion of a huge number could still be enough to cause serious problems for the NHS. That's why we still ( at this stage ) need to keep the lids on any infection. Additionally of course, a spread to lots of people could cause a problematic virus mutation even If they don't get badly affected themselves.

The mortality rate for the Kent strain is 36%, the mortality rate of general strains is 38%.
Eh?

It was very patchy. Large numbers of cases were concentrated in certain areas of Kent. And there were other areas with relatively few cases.

Yes. North Kent was quite heavily hit, Swale (where it started) and Medway (where the main hospital is) in particular. South and West Kent got off quite lightly.

Probably geography was a factor; the North Downs are a barrier and the main travel routes are east-west rather than north-south.

You could easily see the effect of Kent variant in my London borough. It was nearly a vertical line from about 30 per 100k to 1200 in a few weeks.

This, not seasonal excuses, were what put pressure on schools and other things closing.

[quote TatianaBis]@Cornettoninja

Yes I did thanks. Influenza deaths in 2018 were 29,000, 2019 was 26,000.

So there were around 30,000 extra deaths this winter from Covid beyond what we normally see. Which is distressing, but I think we need to keep things in perspective and not panic.[/quote]
Eh? What point does that prove exactly?

We basically had no flu this past winter, largely due to restrictions, so why would you presume (based on what exactly??) that in the exact same circumstances as 2018 and 2019 we wouldn’t have had the annual rates of flu deaths and covid deaths however high or low those actual figures might have been?

I’ll concede there is a crossover in risk group profiles but comparisons of the figures you’ve given mean bugger all.

Even if I was to follow your logic it would still mean that you were trying to argue 60k deaths from flu wouldn’t be a cause for alarm (which it most definitely would be given its double the figures you quoted).

@ajandjjmum

Am I being really thick *@TatianaBis*. Are you saying that 36% of the people with the Kent variant die, and 38% for the original variant?

Of hospitalised cases I understood not of all cases. But you’re right it sounds dodgy, I will investigate.

@Onedaysomedaynowadays - maybe take a look at what's happening in Asia which was having a good pandemic up to now. Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Sri Lanka etc etc. All have soaring cases.

@ajandjjmum

I’ve tracked down the original study and it was misquoted.

It was a UCL study that found that 36% of patients with the Kent variant became severely ill or died, compared to 38% of patients with other variants.

@Cornettoninja

What I’m saying is that over the winter there were 30,000 more deaths than you would expect to see in a normal winter with a flu season. It would have been a lot worse if we hadn’t locked down, no argument there.

But I think we need to keep calm and keep Covid in context. It’s fucking up all our lives, but it could be worse - it could be Ebola.

[quote TatianaBis]@ajandjjmum

I’ve tracked down the original study and it was misquoted.

It was a UCL study that found that 36% of patients with the Kent variant became severely ill or died, compared to 38% of patients with other variants.[/quote]
Thanks for doing that @TatianaBis

I would think that the study is out of date, as I don't think over 30% of those infected ended up in hospital. I suppose we're learning all the time on this one!

No worries, I need to go make supper.

@LidlMiddleLover - how do you know they've 'chosen not to be vaccinated?' Heard it on the news, or out of the mouth of a government minister who has an agenda? How do you know they've been offered a vaccine, been able to get to a centre, are eligible? And it will be all of our problem if the virus continues to seed.

I would think that the study is out of date, as I don't think over 30% of those infected ended up in hospital. I suppose we're learning all the time on this one!

These figures definitely don't refer to that as hospitalisation rates are about 6% overall.

@AbsolutelyPatsy - well said

@TatianaBis Ebola wouldn’t spread so far and would have most likely burnt itself out by now, especially with the measures we’ve had imposed. We’d have had a short, sharp disaster rather than a prolonged one. In some ways it’s arguable that would have been preferable.

Tbh I don’t see that much hysteria. Yes there’s the odd person who has completely lost any perspective (at both ends of the scale) but most people are just realistic and generally don’t feel the need to minimise or inflate circumstances to deal with the reality of the situation.

@TatianaBis

The Kent variant caused more deaths in the second wave than we had in the first wave. Increased transimissibility is a massive problem.

Unless you test every individual for the specific variant, you don’t know which variant they died of. Only 5-10% of tests are sent for genome analysis.

Coronaviruses are seasonal, so it was no surprise to see a second wave over the winter, when lockdown was eased and everyone rushed out to the pub and Christmas shopping. That coincided with the Kent variant, however we would have had a second wave anyway and flu season.

You don't have to test every single variant. If you test 10% and they all the Kent variant , then it is very likely that all the strains are the Kent one. If a strain is more transmissible there will be more infections and more deaths. You don't know that it would have happened anyway and so far Covid 19 hasn't been particularly seasonal. The first wave was during our spring and early summer. It certainly didn't coincide with flu season.

We've been able to come out of restrictions so far this year because the vaccination program has resulted in R being reduced

Maybe so, but I live in Mexico City and after a huge peak in January numbers started to fall and we had only vaccinated a few of the elderly and hospital staff. We also didn't have much of a lockdown.

It isn't just because of vaccines we've been able to come out of lockdown. Cases are very low at present which is also because of the lockdown.
It remains to be seen if cases will remain low with the new more highly transmissible variant.

[quote TatianaBis]@ajandjjmum

I’ve tracked down the original study and it was misquoted.

It was a UCL study that found that 36% of patients with the Kent variant became severely ill or died, compared to 38% of patients with other variants.[/quote]
You're STILL misquoting the study.

It ONLY looked at patients admitted to hospital and the % are those who died.

We know from other studies that the Kent strain put significantly MORE people in hospital in the first place - it is/was probably 20-30% deadlier than the previous strains.

You don't have to test every single variant. If you test 10% and they all the Kent variant , then it is very likely that all the strains are the Kent one. If a strain is more transmissible there will be more infections and more deaths. You don't know that it would have happened anyway and so far Covid 19 hasn't been particularly seasonal. The first wave was during our spring and early summer. It certainly didn't coincide with flu season.

I didn’t say you have to test every single variant, I said you’d have to test very single person who died of Covid to be sure which strain they died of. Testing 10% won’t answer that question precisely.

Covid started in November/December 2019 it was just that it wasn’t transported here until later.

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses, most of which cause common colds, 3 which cause serious respiratory infections, all of which are more prevalent and transmissible in winter.