Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

@bumbleymummy

I read the preprint paper in full actually. Did you? Interested to see how you’ve ‘rubbished it’.

but it seems comprehension was beyond you....

Try reading it again - then read my posts on it in this thread, and then come back if you think you have anything to add.

@LittleRen

Because many have not been vaccinated and a huge number have only had one vaccine. It’s really that simple.

I am 36 - only just had a jab, it takes at least a week to kick in and my second won’t be until august.

But last year the narrative was that cases of infection were so high we have to become prisoners, and give up our rights on an unprecendented scale. Infection grants immunity including to variants.

These two things cannot co-exist, panic over IV only works if you believe no-one has had covid prior to vaccine rollout.

Schrodinger's positive tests: enormous numbers of people have covid when it serves the narrative of fear and control, no-one has had it so no-one has immunity when it suits the next twist in the tale.

@bookworm1632

That study based was so comprehensively demolished by the responses in the BMJ it’s hardly worth my summarizing them. Posters can read for themselves.

I will highlight one key response:

I read with interest the article by Challen et al and cannot help but conclude that there may be a Type 1 error in their mathematical algorithm.

Their conclusion reflects the data obtained but is in conflict with the reported case fatality nationally.

Of 4,27 million cases reported in the four nations of the United Kingdom there were 126,000 fatalities. The official figures provide a case fatality of 30 per 1,000. This compares with the reported case fatality of 4 per 1,000 for the VOC-202012/1 variant, an eight fold difference.

It is probable that a far greater number of patients have contracted Covid 19 than those who have tested positive. It is also probable that the overall fatality is greater. That withstanding it does appear that the official figures are somewhat at odds their findings and the conclusion that further coordinated and stringent measures are implemented.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57150871

Very measured article by the BBC's Nick Triggle.

@ShyButMiffed

Schrodinger's positive tests: enormous numbers of people have covid when it serves the narrative of fear and control, no-one has had it so no-one has immunity when it suits the next twist in the tale.

But you’ve removed all context in that statement when makes it meaningless .

In the context of health service capability we have experienced large numbers. In the context of population herd immunity we haven’t got large enough percentages yet.

There’s no twisting going on just confusing two different sets of figures to have the same consequence when applied to two different scenarios and failing to understand the relationship between those scenarios.

@bookworm1632 There were actually 109812 participants in the study you linked to. Perhaps you should be a bit more careful when reading things yourself

[quote TatianaBis]@Belladonna12

Find later data to show that’s not representative then.

You’re the one arguing that if you test 10% of those who died “it is safe to assume the vast majority of people that have died had that variant”.

Which makes no sense scientifically, as science is based on data not assumptions. And you presume that the ‘vast majority’ of those 10% test positive for the variant, which the data to hand contradicts.

But either you’re ok with making extrapolations based on the test data or you’re not.[/quote]
I didn't presume that the vast majority of those 10% tested positive for the variant at all. That wasn't my point. My point was that they don't need to test hundred percent to have an idea of what proportion of deaths were due to the variant.
It is well known that the Kent variant overtook all others in the UK in the early months of this year because it is much more transmissible.

That's a good article @ILookAtTheFloor

[quote TatianaBis]@bookworm1632

That study based was so comprehensively demolished by the responses in the BMJ it’s hardly worth my summarizing them. Posters can read for themselves.

I will highlight one key response:

I read with interest the article by Challen et al and cannot help but conclude that there may be a Type 1 error in their mathematical algorithm.

Their conclusion reflects the data obtained but is in conflict with the reported case fatality nationally.

Of 4,27 million cases reported in the four nations of the United Kingdom there were 126,000 fatalities. The official figures provide a case fatality of 30 per 1,000. This compares with the reported case fatality of 4 per 1,000 for the VOC-202012/1 variant, an eight fold difference.

It is probable that a far greater number of patients have contracted Covid 19 than those who have tested positive. It is also probable that the overall fatality is greater. That withstanding it does appear that the official figures are somewhat at odds their findings and the conclusion that further coordinated and stringent measures are implemented.[/quote]
But that is completely irrelevant to the point being made - it addresses a completely different piece of data the lower than expected CFR - many possible explanations for this, but irrelevant to this argument.

The key finding I referred to was the higher death rate among those with the Kent variant. This is not disputed anywhere that I can see.

My point was that they don't need to test hundred percent to have an idea of what proportion of deaths were due to the variant

Right. And on that basis the data in the UCL study is valid. You can't have it both ways.

[quote bumbleymummy]@bookworm1632 There were actually 109812 participants in the study you linked to. Perhaps you should be a bit more careful when reading things yourself [/quote]
Good point

@TatianaBis

My point was that they don't need to test hundred percent to have an idea of what proportion of deaths were due to the variant

Right. And on that basis the data in the UCL study is valid. You can't have it both ways.

Where did I say that UCL study wasn't valid?! The figures are valid for the dates they measured.What it doesn't show is the proportion of cases were due to the Kent variant in January, February, March or much of the second wave because they didn't look at cases during those months.

Where did I say that UCL study wasn't valid?! The figures are valid for the dates they measured.What it doesn't show is the proportion of cases were due to the Kent variant in January, February, March or much of the second wave because they didn't look at cases during those months

You're welcome to go looking for the data for those months, thus far you have provided none.

@bookworm1632

Sorry I can't take this seriously.

Today’s reported number of positive cases and deaths both lower than last Tuesday

Numbers in hospital and those on mechanical ventilation continue to fall

Just sayin

Thanks for the Beeb link ILookAtTheFloor. It's informative and balanced.

@TatianaBis

Where did I say that UCL study wasn't valid?! The figures are valid for the dates they measured.What it doesn't show is the proportion of cases were due to the Kent variant in January, February, March or much of the second wave because they didn't look at cases during those months

You're welcome to go looking for the data for those months, thus far you have provided none.

I didn't know I had to provide data to show that the Kent variant increased considerably from December in the UK and then spread around the world. I thought it was pretty well established. Here is data though.

graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/UK-VARIANT/ygdpzgblxvw/

We were talking about the mortality rate.

Never mind.🤦🏼‍♀️

But vaccines are not confirmed to be effective against it. There are reports from India of a few senior doctors who caught Covid and one of them died, despite having been fully vaccinated over a month ago.

While there is a strong possibility the vaccine offers immunity from most strains, we don’t have peer reviewed research and evidence that confirms the same for the Indian variant.

Not to mention, even if everyone in the UK was fully vaccinated as soon as possible (which will still take a few more weeks/months), it still wouldn’t protect those who have already come contact with it.

@LadyEnolaHolmes

But vaccines are not confirmed to be effective against it. There are reports from India of a few senior doctors who caught Covid and one of them died, despite having been fully vaccinated over a month ago.

While there is a strong possibility the vaccine offers immunity from most strains, we don’t have peer reviewed research and evidence that confirms the same for the Indian variant.

Not to mention, even if everyone in the UK was fully vaccinated as soon as possible (which will still take a few more weeks/months), it still wouldn’t protect those who have already come contact with it.

A month before they died or a month ago? Either way that quite possibly means that they caught the virus soon after vaccination. It takes up to 3 weeks post jab for a body to achieve optimum immunity.

There is evidence that it does offer protection.

@LadyEnolaHolmes

But no one has ever said the vaccines are 100% effective plus with a doctor you should take into account the increased exposure and viral load both of which sadly are relevant , especially with their current conditions.

@TatianaBis

We were talking about the mortality rate.

Never mind.🤦🏼‍♀️

If cases increased mortality also increased! Or are you now trying to claim that the Kent variant was actually less deadly than the other variants so that even though cases increased rapidly, mortality didn't.

Because a lot of muslims will not have vaccine due to it containing a very small amount of alcohol.

There’s behavioural scientists on the vaccine groups. They are using such event to encourage vaccine take up.

Personally i’ve taken it, second dose shortly, but some people are anti vaxxers or dumb enough to think it’s a grand conspiracy, bill gates culpable, and so a bit of fear is required to get numbers up.