To think they should pause meeting inside

[LastOrdersMaura]

In the last person to be overly concerned about the virus but the SAGE minutes show that there is something to be concerned about.
I think the economy can't take anymore and I really feel for all the businesses who are gearing up for opening on Monday. My friends cafe hasn't opened since October last year so she missed all the Christmas trade and has no outside seating. Her customer base are mostly elderly so unlikely to come out for takeaway. It would likely bankrupt her to hold off opening any longer.

The mixing in people's houses seems the least destructive part to hold off on. I know a lot of people have been looking forward to it but prolonged contact in a small space seems to be a major factor in transmission.
I'm looking forward to seeing others for a drink in their houses but I can see how it can go wrong. Most people aren't able to go for a meal in a restaurant every night of the week. I could however go to a different friends house every day, even multiple friends houses! Then if that friend does the same, that's a lot of indoor mixing. We have small children so the likelihood of them SD'ing is unlikely. Then there's older siblings at school, working parents, nursery etc leading to an increase in transmission. I feel restaurants are quite safe in comparison.
Those who want to will mix indoors anyway but it might make some think twice or not accept as many invitations. It has no impact on the economy. Yes it will have an impact on mental health but I think we're screwed on that part anyway. Anxiety is through the roof!
I'm fully expecting people to tell me to fuck off but this is the most sensible decision that BJ could make in light of the new variant. I'm not a lockdown lover, frankly as I haven't had a lockdown due to working out of the house throughout. I just want this to be over, properly over, not just kicking the can down the road.

How many weeks is a few weeks

THIS. People have had it with nudge theory. It wont work anymore. And the scales will fall from a few more eyes when this book comes out on Monday. www.lauradodsworth.com/a-state-of-fear I absolutely believe Covid exists but i also believe that some are using it to their advantage.

Question for you OP? If they do the "just a few more weeks" spiel yet again when ppl have already had both or one vaccine, been offered it etc, how good do you think the autumn booster take up will be?

@Appyalpaca trying telling the small independent businesses that have lost income over the last 12 months and just want to start supporting their families again that they'll have to wait a few more weeks. Many have had to pour savings into promoting their Monday reopening, have taken bookings and deposits. Your post is extremely blinkered. It's not about holidays abroad and nights out on the razz for many of us, it's about not losing our livelihood for good.

people won’t comply and the government know this

so then the screws will tighten on the covid certification idea; not yet required for a simple supermarket visit. Not yet.

we could wait a couple of months more until we have much fuller coverage of vaccines

I’m fully vaccinated, as are my parents, and I have been seeing them indoors for months already.

until we know how quickly the vaccines wear off or recommended booster interval is established; that will be the next goalpost move.

I will be furious if we can’t see them at half term because of the entirely predictable results of not closing the borders to travel from India

Next time it will be Nigeria or Czech or wherever next VoC comes from. Then the goalpost will move depending on whether you have the jab that targets the latest VoC.

Will the goalposts just keep moving forever?

Absolutely every single person I know is fully vaccinated. I'm not waiting any longer.

[quote KurtWilde]@Appyalpaca trying telling the small independent businesses that have lost income over the last 12 months and just want to start supporting their families again that they'll have to wait a few more weeks. Many have had to pour savings into promoting their Monday reopening, have taken bookings and deposits. Your post is extremely blinkered. It's not about holidays abroad and nights out on the razz for many of us, it's about not losing our livelihood for good. [/quote]
But the point is I don’t want these businesses to go through another long lockdown. This is what I’m saying. I am thinking of them.

We have 30 Covid cases In my trust. 2 months ago there were 450.

“ And yet you claim that the best to way avoid a lockdown is to continue having a lockdown..”

No what I’m saying is better a few more weeks than ending up with it letting rip and being more than a few more MONTHS.

I remember you being against a two week circuit breaker in October for all these reasons. Look where that got us

“ 9. If this variant were to have a 40% to 50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England (SAGE 88) indicate that it is likely that progressing with Step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks). Progressing with both Steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak. Smaller transmission advantage would lead to smaller peaks.

(SAGE)”

Is this supposed to be some sort of proof of something? It doesn’t say anything like the same thing will happen here as has happened in India.

God I am so sick of the word "pause" in relation to Covid restrictions. It totally downplays the effect of whatever is being suggested. Things are different this time round OP. In our house both husband and I are fully vaccinated and our children test twice a week, as do all their friends. It's lunacy to say that we can't have our friends over, who are either vaccinated or testing frequently. So we won't be "pausing" anything.

@JellyTots2009

OP if you don't want to meet people inside that's your choice. I will be seeing fiends and family who I haven't seen for months and months. I'm full vaccinated and test 3 times a week due to work. I feel safe enough that way. Most of my family are vaccinated too

Curious about posts like this. Why haven't you seen these people? I've seen everyone I wanted to while keeping within guidelines.

[quote MintyMabel]@TempsPerdu

Are you suggesting that a little rain is a problem for people to deal with, during a global pandemic so scientific advice should just be ignored?

People should be bothered by a little rain when they haven’t seen their families for months on end?

My elderly parents took a 350 mile day trip to see us as we were physically unable to do the distance this time. We sat outside and mum was given water bottles and blankets to keep warm as she feels the cold. When the rain started we put up umbrellas. It was worth it for her to hug her grandchildren.

Pre- Covid the rain soaked BBQ was a badge of pride. Now we whinge that we want to go indoors?[/quote]
Yeah, that would really work for my frail 94yo dad

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/15/johnson-must-think-again-on-plans-to-relax-covid-rules

Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the government’s taskforce on new and emerging viruses (Nervtag), said the relaxations would drive up the numbers infected with the India variant and that unvaccinated younger adults would be most at risk.

“Indoor mixing will almost certainly increase transmission of the B.1.617.2 variant but at this stage nobody can be sure by how much,” he said.

Hayward added that many people would end up in hospital if, as feared, the variant proved 40% more transmissible than previous variants, notably the Kent variant, which drove the lethal second wave over the winter. Modelling by the government’s own Sage committee of scientific advisers has already said the increase in transmissibility from the new variant could be as high as 50%.

“A 20% increase in transmissibility is not a big problem; [but] a 40% increase would be a huge problem and could lead to a sizeable surge in hospitalisations. A big surge in hospitalisations would likely have knock-on consequences for routine health services and the backlog of care,” Hayward warned.

Professor Hayward said this on April 19th - remember if this spirals out of control Johnson and his sucking up to Modi and how he recklessly threatened to squander our massive advantage with 10s of thousands landing in the UK from India in the last month.

Sage committee expert Professor Andrew Hayward suggests govt should ‘err on the side of caution’ and put India on the travel red list
7:42 AM · Apr 19, 2021

I am so sick of the 'must not unlock' shouts on the media and on here. It's just annoying background noise now to me and many others I know in RL.

A lot of people have had covid mildly and even my DH who is still suffering from catching it last year is sick of existing and not living. Lots of people have had the vaccination and those that haven't are typically because they are so low risk of getting ill anyway.

I can only assume those that want to keep doing just a few more weeks are happy existing in a small comfortable financial bubble and don't really do a lot post covid (flights etc). Keep doing that and let the rest of us live a normal 'risky' but fulfilling life.

Where I live, we’ve not been able to meet indoors since September. Thats 8 months. I’ve followed the rules religiously, but I’m now double vaccinated as are my parents and my close friends are all 3 weeks post first vaccine. Time for a bit of normality.

@BooblePlate

“ 9. If this variant were to have a 40% to 50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England (SAGE 88) indicate that it is likely that progressing with Step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks). Progressing with both Steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak. Smaller transmission advantage would lead to smaller peaks.

(SAGE)”

Is this supposed to be some sort of proof of something? It doesn’t say anything like the same thing will happen here as has happened in India.

It says that hospitals would be very full again, possibly worse than in January, with resultant impact on other healthcare, even if we don't move to step 4.

No one thinks UK will be like India, with bodies floating down rivers, no.

But people seemingly don't understand why we are at risk of another large wave. I don't understand why they don't understand, but seems a lot of people can't get their head round it. Maybe they misunderstood the vaccine rollout timeline, and believed the government spin.

I agree with the op, Johnson should be looking again. He won't though!

@Appyalpaca

“ And yet you claim that the best to way avoid a lockdown is to continue having a lockdown..”

No what I’m saying is better a few more weeks than ending up with it letting rip and being more than a few more MONTHS.

I remember you being against a two week circuit breaker in October for all these reasons. Look where that got us

Wales did the recommended circuit breaker. Fat lot of good that did us. People who said it would be a waste of time we're completely correct.

@GiveMeNovocain

Think the Wales circuit breaker was impacted by the rapid rise in cases in England though.

A UK-wide circuit breaker would have been different, and certainly had England's semi lockdown in autumn been more robust, the number of deaths in early 2021 would have been far lower.

I don't want lockdowns, they mean you've failed, but they definitely work.

@MyOtherProfile perhaps use your imagination. Many of us have relatives who are a 2 hour drive away and too frail to sit outside for hours, or live at the other end of the country. I haven't seen my closest friend for well over a year now, and Zoom is just not the same.

I got so sick of the earlier message of 'all you're being asked to do is stay at home'. That was never true: we were being asked to forego great swathes of our social lives and activities. It's particularly unfair on teenagers and young adults: they have given up the most.

I'm in the NW near Bolton and read that most hospitalisations are of people that were eligible for, yet have not taken the vaccine.
My exam year teen DC have had a horrendous year, and from tomorrow can do what they like. I refuse to restrict our lives any longer, simply to protect those (vaccine contraindicated people aside) who have made poor choices. If cases rise within those groups, that's just unfortunate.
RIsk v benefit at this moment in time for most people, it's time to get moving.

Why? Because I’d much rather go a few more weeks than have another long lockdown later. That would damage us all further.

The people who say a few more weeks usually are the same ones who will say just another few weeks after Those few weeks so on and so on.

Being closed is decimating business we need to get back to normal, and if the vaccine works it shouldn't be a problem.

@Againstmachine

Why? Because I’d much rather go a few more weeks than have another long lockdown later. That would damage us all further.

The people who say a few more weeks usually are the same ones who will say just another few weeks after Those few weeks so on and so on.

Being closed is decimating business we need to get back to normal, and if the vaccine works it shouldn't be a problem.

Absolutely this. It's been "just a few more weeks" since March last year, and every time it ends up being more and more and more. What if we pause reopening for a few more weeks, then another different variant arrives? It will then have to be a few more weeks after that, and carry on and on.

Nope. No more.

I get your point OP.

If we have to stop something, indoor socialising would seem the obvious choice. Business could still operate, the vast majority of us could still socialise but outside as we have been.

I’m not convinced anything needs to be stopped, but IF we do have to give something up, that would be my preference.

@Appyalpaca

“ And yet you claim that the best to way avoid a lockdown is to continue having a lockdown..”

No what I’m saying is better a few more weeks than ending up with it letting rip and being more than a few more MONTHS.

I remember you being against a two week circuit breaker in October for all these reasons. Look where that got us

Wales had a circuit breaker. And yet somehow we're still in lockdown. Maybe if we hadn't, maybe if we'd relaxed earlier, my colleague wouldn't have killed himself. Who knows, but be sure of this: every single week of lockdown has its own casualties.

@GiveMeNovocain the reason the circuit breaker in Wales didn't work is because it wasn't long enough - Drakeford acknowledged that.

I am in Wales, so we will still not be allowed to meet in our homes from tomorrow. I don't think people will stick to this though, because of people in England and Scotland being allowed to do so.

I think the changes need to go ahead. We have to try. The progress of this variant will be watched like a hawk. It's not going to suddenly run rampage overnight. If the signs begin to point to it being more transmissable, then action can be taken.

Having said all that, I wouldn't rule out an emergency No. 10 presser later today...