To think they should pause meeting inside

[LastOrdersMaura]

In the last person to be overly concerned about the virus but the SAGE minutes show that there is something to be concerned about.
I think the economy can't take anymore and I really feel for all the businesses who are gearing up for opening on Monday. My friends cafe hasn't opened since October last year so she missed all the Christmas trade and has no outside seating. Her customer base are mostly elderly so unlikely to come out for takeaway. It would likely bankrupt her to hold off opening any longer.

The mixing in people's houses seems the least destructive part to hold off on. I know a lot of people have been looking forward to it but prolonged contact in a small space seems to be a major factor in transmission.
I'm looking forward to seeing others for a drink in their houses but I can see how it can go wrong. Most people aren't able to go for a meal in a restaurant every night of the week. I could however go to a different friends house every day, even multiple friends houses! Then if that friend does the same, that's a lot of indoor mixing. We have small children so the likelihood of them SD'ing is unlikely. Then there's older siblings at school, working parents, nursery etc leading to an increase in transmission. I feel restaurants are quite safe in comparison.
Those who want to will mix indoors anyway but it might make some think twice or not accept as many invitations. It has no impact on the economy. Yes it will have an impact on mental health but I think we're screwed on that part anyway. Anxiety is through the roof!
I'm fully expecting people to tell me to fuck off but this is the most sensible decision that BJ could make in light of the new variant. I'm not a lockdown lover, frankly as I haven't had a lockdown due to working out of the house throughout. I just want this to be over, properly over, not just kicking the can down the road.

Oh don’t be so ridiculous.

@Againstmachine

Permitted reasons are weddings christenings ect , I'd understand essential workers but it ain't.

You know thr reasons for everyone on those flights do you?

@Blossomtoes

Oh don’t be so ridiculous.

Look, she doesn't understand what minutes she so don't expect too much.

@countrygirl99

I understand what minutes are, and what they include this time, just fine.

Some people seem unable to process/accept the scientific possibilities the UK is facing at the moment.

There is no real place for commonsense in this type of situation, it is what people say to comfort themselves, but what we need is the opposite of 'common' sense, we need expert knowledge.

If the scenario in the minutes doesn't come to pass that does not mean it was not a possibility. All we are discussing are possibilities.

I accept it is entirely possible that the current spikes of the Indian variant could get stamped out. But those on the other side of the argument either can't or won't accept the scientific possibility that there could be a very big third wave.

I don’t think we can lockdown again

I mean who is going to adhere to it.

The first lockdown, everyone looked like they were complying with.
The second less complied with and the 3rd was business as usual apart from shops and hospitality
If we had a 4th what good would it do? I doubt those that had the vaccine will be complying with anything and the rest will be out on the streets or having parties in their homes
There aren’t enough police to arrest everyone or break up every Covid lockdown violation

I agree and they know this. They can shut businesses (and yet again decimate the economy) but we all know the main spread is in houses. And people will not stop seeing family and friends. Especially once vaccinated.

Lockdowns are off the table I think. They are an emergency reaction not a long term strategy.

The problem is lots of people don't follow the rules and the ones who do are being kept away from their families for longer and longer because of it. I haven't seen my fully vaccinated parents for a year and a half as they live 200 miles away and I won't be stopped from seeing them in a couple of weeks because there's a new variant in other parts of the country where they don't follow the rules and don't get vaccinated.

Yep @Tal45 I feel the same. Parents live 300 miles away. Both fully vaccinated l. Haven’t seen them for a long time. Have followed rules on indoor meeting. Due to see them next week and wouldn’t comply on not seeing them and having them to stay if we had another lockdown. We’ve sacrificed too much for too long when many haven’t complied.

There is no real place for commonsense in this type of situation, it is what people say to comfort themselves, but what we need is the opposite of 'common' sense, we need expert knowledge

It seems that you don’t understand the meaning of common sense either. It means looking at the facts and assessing the situation based on them in this instance. So

• the number of news cases is falling daily
• the number of people in hospital is falling daily
• the number of deaths each day is in single figures
• the number of people vaccinated is rising daily
• there is no evidence that the Indian variant is more transmissible, let alone the worst case scenario of 50%

You’re catastrophising @picturesandpickles.

I think they need to lateral test everyone seeking health services who have any Covid systems unless its an immediate life or death situation. You do know this doesn't always happen right?

Too early to say. I think they made the right call going ahead, people NEED the break or they'll just end up flouting the law and doing things their own (and less controlled) way - but will need to keep an eye on hospitalisation and be ready to shut things again in the worst case.

Speaking as someone who has been back on site at work on and off - including being there during the peak of the second wave while I was still negotiating working from home with a hesitant, presenteeism loving employer - it seems unfair to be expected to put my life on the line for work purposes whilst being banned from doing the same thing to socialise. But there we go. Now that it's allowed, I am absolutely back at the pub and I can tell you it feels pretty safe. Everyone has to be seated, 4 to a table, wear a mask when moving, etc. It's a controlled environment. Safer IMO than shutting them and causing people to have their own illicit meet-ups, it's a bit like prohibition, just drives stuff underground. But we'll see.

It's so hard. Obviously I don't want increased hospitalisations or deaths or another lockdown, but we've got a big family holiday planned end of June in Lake District- replanned for the forth time I think.

I find it hard to reconcile that it's likely thus won't happen now with people currently jetting off abroad.

Shouldn't we be focusing on getting everything back to normal in the UK before allowing holidays abroad? Again I feel that poor prioritisation from government- and I'm in Scotland so this isn't a political statement- impacting once again on those of us who want to do right, but are utterly flattened by the changing goalposts.

Isn’t going abroad for a holiday normal?

What is normal for some people is another persons idea of imprisonment.

@Bythemillpond all I want is our family holiday with 12 people in a shared property in the UK.

I see the concerns around the Indian variant and the likelihood that travel abroad will bring back further variants and I see the chance of spending time with extended family diminishing. DS is a teen and an only so won't go on holiday with just us in the UK.

It just feels like a matter of priorities to me. Surely we should get UK travel and hospitality industry back to semi normal before introducing new potential risks.

I hope that the vaccines do work against any new variants, but each time one is identified then they need to gather data and analyse for a bit, and ideally from a scientific perspective you'd halt any further change during that period. It seems much fairer to let everyone in UK have some normality versus jeopardising that so a small minority can go abroad- and many of those interviewed going to Amber countries say they have no intention of self isolating on return.

@Blossomtoes

This is what I posted If the scenario in the minutes doesn't come to pass that does not mean it was not a possibility. All we are discussing are possibilities.

Discussing possibilities that are being presented to government is not catastrophising. I have acknowledged it may not come to pass.

You on the other hand are full of false certainty, which presumably you need to assert for your own reasons. But the science and the maths are what they are - there is a possibility that things could go OK, or not OK.

No, you can stay if you want but I want to live my life.

@BogRollBOGOF

Meeting inside has pretty much been baned continuously in Leicester and several northern areas for 14m. It clearly worked

Well said.

And PPs saying 'you can just socialise outdoors, the weather's nice' clearly haven't got dearly loved family members living 200 miles away in an area where indoor mixing has been banned for the whole time since March 23rd bar 3 weeks

They did the right thing going ahead with the lockdown easing. We’ve been in lockdown for months and it’s supposed to be a temporary measure, we can’t just stay in it indefinitely. People need to see family and friends and there’s no way the government could have kept that ban unless we were in a completely terrible position.

And they know people won’t comply, and they know this is irreversible. I’m not going back to not being able to see my family and friends again, not for anything.

picturesandpickles

The finest advocate of commonsense was Ann Widdicombe. She would have shown Covid a thing or two. She wouldn't have stood for any of this epidemiological nonsense.“

🤣🤣🤣
🤪

I think it is reasonable that people have a choice on this. We're extremely careful but other people can choose to do things differently and may have more need to/less risk.

There is an element of risk from having high community levels of virus - but levels are currently quite low and we are after all going into the summer now.

Just because we're allowed to socialise in our homes, it doesn't of course mean that everyone has to do that, and many people will continue to be very cautious.

Discussing possibilities that are being presented to government is not catastrophising. I have acknowledged it may not come to pass.

You on the other hand are full of false certainty, which presumably you need to assert for your own reasons. But the science and the maths are what they are - there is a possibility that things could go OK, or not OK.

Your comprehension skills really are lacking. All I’ve done is present the facts which you find inconvenient:

Fewer cases each day, fewer hospital admissions, deaths in single figures, more vaccinations. Evidence, not speculation, modelling or worst case scenarios.

Anyway the news reports this morning are telling us that speculation that the Indian variant bring more transmissible than any other is unfounded. So SAGE’s pessimistic modelling was incorrect.

Anyway the news reports this morning are telling us that speculation that the Indian variant bring more transmissible than any other is unfounded. So SAGE’s pessimistic modelling was incorrect.

It wasn't incorrect. It was based on the info they had at the time, they said 50/50 likelihood of 40-50%. New data will mean they revise the model, and people who follow the data will revise their views in line with that.

I have never denied any official data re. case numbers etc., but the change in cases from one variant to another - we had/have declining cases in some areas and rising in others - makes the pure numbers not fully helpful just now. What matters is what happens with the variant going forwards.

I was very glad to hear newer data suggests the Indian variant is in the 20-30% more transmissible region rather than 40-50% - that will make a significant difference hopefully.

That is good news that it is not as transmissible as they thought.
No one was stating it definitely was. What everyone was saying it might be but the scientists do not know enough yet.

I agree that what I want most is for life to be back to normal in Britain. Travelling abroad could wait. I have found it hard seeing family abroad in countries that have no or very few cases posting photos on social media of normal life. I have seen photos of family parties with everyone looking normal while we were in lockdown. And I have been desperate to get back to that.
Holidays abroad are great, but worthless if it just plunges us back into another lockdown.

New data will mean they revise the model, and people who follow the data will revise their views in line with that

You mean the data I’ve been providing ad nauseum for days and you’ve been rubbishing? That data?