To think they should pause meeting inside

[LastOrdersMaura]

In the last person to be overly concerned about the virus but the SAGE minutes show that there is something to be concerned about.
I think the economy can't take anymore and I really feel for all the businesses who are gearing up for opening on Monday. My friends cafe hasn't opened since October last year so she missed all the Christmas trade and has no outside seating. Her customer base are mostly elderly so unlikely to come out for takeaway. It would likely bankrupt her to hold off opening any longer.

The mixing in people's houses seems the least destructive part to hold off on. I know a lot of people have been looking forward to it but prolonged contact in a small space seems to be a major factor in transmission.
I'm looking forward to seeing others for a drink in their houses but I can see how it can go wrong. Most people aren't able to go for a meal in a restaurant every night of the week. I could however go to a different friends house every day, even multiple friends houses! Then if that friend does the same, that's a lot of indoor mixing. We have small children so the likelihood of them SD'ing is unlikely. Then there's older siblings at school, working parents, nursery etc leading to an increase in transmission. I feel restaurants are quite safe in comparison.
Those who want to will mix indoors anyway but it might make some think twice or not accept as many invitations. It has no impact on the economy. Yes it will have an impact on mental health but I think we're screwed on that part anyway. Anxiety is through the roof!
I'm fully expecting people to tell me to fuck off but this is the most sensible decision that BJ could make in light of the new variant. I'm not a lockdown lover, frankly as I haven't had a lockdown due to working out of the house throughout. I just want this to be over, properly over, not just kicking the can down the road.

@woodfort

I get where you are coming from but I think we’re too far down the road now and no one would listen. You arrange a garden meet up and it starts raining so people just go indoors.. that’s what is happening already. The government needs to move legislation in line with where most of the country is at to keep it any way meaningful.

Infection rates will be gone up but this even prior to Indian variant was known and accepted. Whitty and Johnson already said this - May and June dates would cause R rate to go up but it has to happen at some point. At least know the vulnerable have all had a chance at a vaccine.

Yes, with the Kent variant. Not with a new variant that they don't know enough about yet. There's a big difference.

You don't move legislation to what people are doing, you enforce what's reasonably safe. Otherwise let's move the speed limits up to 60 on all residential roads & 100 on the motorway.

The scientists are not stupid, but they are one trick pony, completely focused on the virus and not on everything else involved in running the country.

@unwuthering

Yes some people will get ill. Some people will die.

So cavalier!

Well, there are 600,000 deaths in the UK every year, do you want to prevent them all. It's pretty fucking cavalier to completely focus on covid to the exclusion of all other aspects of life, to the exclusion of the overall health and wealth of the nation, to have a "can't do because covid" NHS.

@unwuthering

Yes some people will get ill. Some people will die.

So cavalier!

I don't see it that way.

People die all the time from accidents, illnesses and yes some will die from covid.

Life always has and will have an element of risk. Sitting at home on your arse is also risky as lots of accidents happen in the home.

If you can't accept death may happen in life then you are going to be very disappointed.

@HarebrightCedarmoon

The scientists are not stupid, but they are one trick pony, completely focused on the virus and not on everything else involved in running the country.

This. ^

Chris Whitby has said time and time again it's the job of the Govt to focus on the bigger picture and that's what they're doing (after ballsing up the Indian flight risk by acting too late). There is a surge of cases of a new variant that may or may not be worse than the Kent one (because SAGE admits it still doesn't know) in areas where a proportion of people have declined to be vaccinated - why should the entire nation have to suffer further when data in their areas shows such a decline in cases? We can't expect people in areas where there have been no Covid cases for weeks, let alone deaths, to comply and they shouldn't be asked too. If anything needs to be done, it's local lockdowns.

Chris Whitty! Bloody autocorrect.

@vera99

Johnson fucks up everything he touches. Theresa May must be fuming she would have made a far far better job of handling the detail in a timely manner and listening to advice rather than spending time canoodling with his young mistress.

I think she is sitting with a large gin and tonic thinking thank fuck it's not me having to try and sort this out.

@tigger1001 correct! I do like to think she had a backbone, morality, and a sense of civic duty all attributes that Johnson does not. But I digress ...

@Appyalpaca they cannot afford to keep closed another few weeks, why aren't you getting that? It's already been months and months with no income for some, yet they still have to outlay to keep their closed business afloat - council tax on the building, insurance, utilities etc aren't bills that just go away because covid! No no no. No more. Because if we 'pause' now what happens when another variant turns up? Pause again? What about faith in the vaccine? If we're supposed to have faith in it why is half this thread still so bloody frightened?? Because it might not work against the India variant? Ok well the flu jab you have every year only works on the most level at strain that year, it doesn't stop you getting all the other ones kicking around. Should be lockdown for that in future then?

Enough is enough. No more kicking the can down the street which is basically what we've been doing for months now. Time to live with it.

@HarebrightCedarmoon

We don't want to be back in January, but the thing is we aren't in January, we're in May, and hospitals are never as full in summer! Plus everyone who is vulnerable has been vaccinated. It isn't January, we have moved forward and we can't be continually trapped in lockdown loops. Let us have a normal summer. Yes some people will get ill. Some people will die. We can't prevent every death, and a hell of a lot of people will be ill and die from depression and other illnesses if we carry on like this.

Indeed

• prevalent not level at. Autocorrect fail.

@Almostsummer21

This does remind me of the start of Sunday trading- it was still illegal to open shops on sundays, yet many big brands realised enough of the public wanted to shop on sundays, and calculated the fines were less than the amount they would take in trading those days, so opened. After a few months the government officially changed the rules, and allowed sunday trading, that had been opening going on for months.

The government accepts it cant enforce rules if there is mass rebellion against them.

Ita a trade off, if you ban indoor meeting, accepting that thousands (millions?) Of people will ignore this rule, how do you try to get them to accept other rules /restrictions/guidance that's more important if they have decided the rules don't need to be kept? If the rules are stupid/draconian/pointless, then many will ignore all the rules, not just the most stupid/upsetting of them.

I would risk rise in covid to have benefit of small businesses & sole traders staying viable rather than keep facing bankruptcy risks for uncertain forever period. Also to let people see their loved ones far away, including in care homes not trapped inside.

I must admit I'm surprised Sunday trading rules have not been eradicated at the moment and made normal

It's very surprising actually.

I’ve been fully vaccinated since January (I’m nhs staff) and we’ve had no patients with covid for 3 weeks. I’m ready to meet friends indoors. I’ll open windows, let them use the cleaned downstairs loo while I use one upstairs, have gel on the table but I want to have indoor visits. Last time I saw my parents it was in a pub garden in the hail. I’m done with not being able to chill with my mum over a coffee or wine on the sofa!

We won’t be going to cafes, restaurants, pubs, theatre, cinema any time soon.

Fully vaccinated now, we shall be seeing our children and baby grandchild indoors. We all LF test before meeting (I know far from foolproof) and only see each other and SILs parents (also fully vaccinated) anyway (they WFH).

Someone said earlier, meeting indoors doesn’t help the economy. No, but it sure as hell helps our state of mind after a year of shielding.

@HarebrightCedarmoon what you say is normally true however we’re currently Opel 4 at are 2 local trusts (this means we are full and in all the winter escalation areas). Not for covid reason but lots of people are genuinely acutely unwell right now. I’ve not seen daily reports like I’m getting on May before. We’re doing a full review and deep dive into the data to understand it.

Hospitiality has to open up - the implications I think longer term of not opening up that side is far more I think than the variant.

Households meeting up inside - I think a lot of what happened on Friday was designed to maybe make us take stock of that and think whether we should. Because taking it away wont make much difference. Many would do it anyway (and probably are already) and those who wouldnt are probably now not going to anyway.

The June 21st date is much easier to move I think than anything else because actually they relate to restrictions around things which have already been opened - it is an entirely different matter to not letting things open. I suspect many of us will be ok living with masks/SD/testing for awhile

The vaccines seem to work well against it so I think it is a matter of trying to vaccinate as many as possible

Our not are

What are people ill with @m0therofdragons?

What we need now is the weather to just be pleasantly warm, so people want to be outside as much as possible anyway.

@m0therofdragons - That's interesting. I wonder if it's a sort of ilness backlog from a mixture of people having delayed treatment and appointments and a general adverse lockdown effect on wellbeing.

@pinkearedcow there’s no obvious pattern. It’s been mad this week - predicted 70 ish ambulances in one day but actually saw 96 come in. I’m wondering if it’s people leaving conditions unchecked during the pandemic or long term conditions getting worse from fewer face to face reviews (but that’s just my speculation as we are awaiting the review which will hopefully give answers). We are also trying to get through the waiting list so maybe we’re over booking - but that doesn’t explain high a&e demand. Anecdotally, people believe they can’t get a gp appointment so that might have an impact - I’ve actually had gp appointments over the last 6 months and even face to face when needed so definitely worth trying your gp.

@Jasmine245

I agree OP. I hate this continuing cycle of opening up, increased transmission, deaths and lockdown. We are so close to getting the vaccine programme rolled out and breaking this cycle. I would much rather delay opening up to avoid more lockdowns.

Sadly people don't learn and fail to understand exponential growth. The increased tranmissability of the Indian variant is scary. Cases are doubling every week. There are still enough unvaccinated people to cause a big spike in deaths.

I would delay the next stage a couple of weeks until we know more about how it spreads.

This sounds sensible to me

It is going to be really, really hard to sell the general public on the idea of "just pause it for a few more weeks".

Where I live we went into a 16-day circuit breaker in October. Just 16 days of no household mixing, surely we can cope with 16 days to avoid a longer lockdown, right? It's now May and our circuit breaker has lasted 200+ days.

Same everywhere: just a shorter lockdown now to get things back under control a bit, okay needs to be a bit longer but let's stick with it so we can have a relatively normal Christmas, just a few weeks, okay Christmas is off let's hold out for Easter, okay Easter not happening either... The only place that promised a fixed-length few weeks lockdown and stuck to it was Wales in Autumn, and look how well that worked.

So if you want people to support this, you would have to do more than saying "but it's only for a few weeks why are people so impatient!". You'd have to get people to believe that a) it's truly, definitely necessary and b) this time it really will only be for a few more weeks. And at this point I don't know how you could do that.

That’s concerning @m0therofdragons. I bet you are right about people putting off getting checked out and those with long term conditions deteriorating.