SAGE Emergency Meeting Minutes:

[PrincessNutNuts]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

21. SPI-M-O is therefore confident that B.1.617.2 has a significant growth advantage over the UK’s currently dominant strain, B.1.1.7. The difference in growth rates between B.1.617.2 and B.1.1.7 is consistent with the former having a transmission advantage of more than 50%;this is based on observed growth that has already happened and it is unclear whether this same growth advantage would apply to sustained wider community transmission regionally or nationally. Resolving this question of the applicability of this growth advantage to the wider population will be difficult while the number of cases are small and relatively focussed.

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-89-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-13-may-2021/sage-89-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-13-may-2021

Can we not link to a PDF?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

Test with link of the above doesn't work: twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=21

Couple of pertinent sections:

Wow. Thanks for posting this. (Genuine) thanks for giving me something to worry about to distract me from the worries which have me awake at this time of night!

I knew Boris must have been told something as big as this t make him actually tell the nation that Step Four was under threat.

The government ignoring this report is disgusting.

Wow it’s there in black and white. People that were against putting off stage 3 for now thinking it will only cause more economic damage are actually advocating for another full lockdown. Surely this means we could be in the midst of an even bigger wave and lockdown straight through Christmas.

Wait until this reality starts hitting home.

Shit.

That’s a truth that’s run through the entire pandemic, thewise. The problem is getting people to see it.

Controlling the virus has the benefit of being better for the economy and saving lives. Holding off on opening now so that places can be open for longer when they do open seems like the better option but it’s difficult to get people to see that.

I think promising an irreversible opening process might turn out to be a mistake. It was never true but when people find out that not only is 21 June not likely to happen but some reversible of 17th may opening looks virtually guaranteed at this point I think people’s patience might finally wear out.

Good point Rafa. Boris can’t say, as he did in Dec/Jan, “But it’s the new variant’s fault, we didn’t know that was going to happen!!”, because the fourth Test is about variants!

How can they ignore this and just carry on opening up. I’m so gutted it finally felt like there was an end to this then this pops up but even worse the government are going to let it spread resulting in more lockdowns, more deaths, more economic damage and more of an impact on mental health. Early action is the only thing that helps to ensure we get what everyone wants which is the best chance at normality.

I'm (selfishly) so relieved I've had my first vaccination this week before things get even worse... People still seem to be in denial about the virus having the potential to make a lot of younger people very ill and filling up hospitals again. It has always been a numbers game - if you let lots of the unvaccinated people catch the virus now, many will need hospital treatment. There have already been anecdotal reports of the Indian variant infecting whole families even though the previous variants often didn't, it was not unusual for only one or two family members to get ill.

So frustrating the travel restrictions didn't come in earlier when we were doing so well. The government has done everything just a little too late all through this.

I hope that they’ve recognised it early enough this time to limit the damage. I know we’re very good at sequencing in the UK, but if this variant is as transmissible as they say, aren’t we going to see it take hold in other countries like the Kent variant did? Especially as most other countries have an even smaller vaccinated population than we do.

@StarcourtMall

I hope that they’ve recognised it early enough this time to limit the damage. I know we’re very good at sequencing in the UK, but if this variant is as transmissible as they say, aren’t we going to see it take hold in other countries like the Kent variant did? Especially as most other countries have an even smaller vaccinated population than we do.

Yes. I’d expect it’s in the majority of countries by now. We’ll know soon enough in the coming week or two.

“Realistic Probability”. And here is the scale used.

Not really enough to get me worrying...but does sound awful in a headline.

@Mathshelpme

“Realistic Probability”. And here is the scale used.

Not really enough to get me worrying...but does sound awful in a headline.

That is slightly less panic-inducing.

The other thing to remember is we can still achieve herd immunity, but it will be a race between vaccines and the new variant. If the additional testing and isolating they are doing can keep a lid on it while we roll out more vaccines hopefully the impact will be lessened.

...could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions

Forgive me if I'm wrong but a "pharmaceutical intervention" could be something small as taking a paracetamol...

30+ million people vaccinated and those j the higher risk groups. Surely now the people who do get it will mainly be asymptomatic or require little intervention?

It's already on every continent, we sequence a higher percentage of tests so the fact its saying we have more than other countries isn't necessarily the case. I also think saying we are 'opening up' on Monday is a bit disingenuous, things are not opening without social distancing, and schools can still implement mask wearing in schools (I would argue there's not much point anyway but that's another story). Mixing is limited, outdoors has been noted as less risk throughout so the increase in outdoor gatherings won't make much difference, and indoors is still just 2 households, many of which will have vulnerable relatives vaccinated. Travel is limited to hardly anywhere, testing is now up and running, unfortunately it does rely on people applying common sense and caution and we know a lot of people are selfish and stupid.

There are a plethora of reasons why India (and other countries) are seeing such strain on their health services though and it's not just down to this variant. I just hope people are as arsed about trying to push to improve infrastructure and medical provision once covid is over, people seem more bothered now as it might affect us, but plenty of preventable things spread at a ridiculous rate due to conditions and plenty do not have access to healthcare.

Frankly sage are only considering covid in their decision. Clearly the best thing from a covid perspective, would be locking us all at home for the rest of the year at least.

That cannot happen though. Businesses are on their knees, staff and owners about to lose their livelihoods and homes. We need to get things open and the economy moving again.

We will never reopen if we shut everything every time a variant may (but more than likely will not) evade the vaccines.

@Horehound

...could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions

Forgive me if I'm wrong but a "pharmaceutical intervention" could be something small as taking a paracetamol...

30+ million people vaccinated and those j the higher risk groups. Surely now the people who do get it will mainly be asymptomatic or require little intervention?

More along the line of anti virals that they are talking about I imagine. Much the same as the treatment for shingles to lessen the symptoms once you have the illness. The success of these though is early diagnosis and although a simple procedure, when multiplied will still be a drain on the NHS throughout autumn/winter. Added to the cases they already expect to require hospital treatment.

30+ million people vaccinated and those j the higher risk groups. Surely now the people who do get it will mainly be asymptomatic or require little intervention?

Jesus - are there still people who don't get it?

Overall, vaccines seem to confer about 90-95% protection against severe illness and death at least as far as the Kent variant goes - it could be lower with the Indian variant - we don't know yet.

But that % is not homogenous. Among the most vulnerable it will be MUCH lower - versus nigh on 100% in young healthy people. I saw a paper the other day suggesting Pfizer was only generating antibodies in about 20% of people with weakened immune systems.

Then you have the significant number who aren't vaccinated - OK you can argue it's their fault, but they'll still end up in hospital won't they!

Finally, the virus does hospitalise and kill younger people too - maybe not to anything like the same extent as older people, but the more infections there are, the more younger people are going to be hospitalised - it's a simple numbers game!

And that's before we even get to "long covid", which vaccines may or may not even protect against at all!

In short - a rise in cases is a source of extreme concern, particularly when caused by a variant we still know little about.

@bookworm1632

30+ million people vaccinated and those j the higher risk groups. Surely now the people who do get it will mainly be asymptomatic or require little intervention?

Jesus - are there still people who don't get it?

Overall, vaccines seem to confer about 90-95% protection against severe illness and death at least as far as the Kent variant goes - it could be lower with the Indian variant - we don't know yet.

But that % is not homogenous. Among the most vulnerable it will be MUCH lower - versus nigh on 100% in young healthy people. I saw a paper the other day suggesting Pfizer was only generating antibodies in about 20% of people with weakened immune systems.

Then you have the significant number who aren't vaccinated - OK you can argue it's their fault, but they'll still end up in hospital won't they!

Finally, the virus does hospitalise and kill younger people too - maybe not to anything like the same extent as older people, but the more infections there are, the more younger people are going to be hospitalised - it's a simple numbers game!

And that's before we even get to "long covid", which vaccines may or may not even protect against at all!

In short - a rise in cases is a source of extreme concern, particularly when caused by a variant we still know little about.

Don't need to be patronising...I "get" it I'm just not jumping to "catastrophe mode" as you seem to be. The majority of unvaccinated people will not need treatment. The majority of high risk people have been vaccinated

Then you have the significant number who aren't vaccinated - OK you can argue it's their fault, but they'll still end up in hospital won't they! Some will ,sure..but not all.

Finally, the virus does hospitalise and kill younger people too - maybe not to anything like the same extent as older people you're right, it's nothing like the numbers of older/high risk people.
So you need to weigh up restrictions to life Vs some people going to hospital. And since we've had this virus in our lives for over a year, our processes will be honed in now, testing is better, people are aware what they need to do..isolate etc so yeh, I'm not getting worked up about it. It's almost like you're thriving off the drama imo!

The rabbit in the headlight looks of the press conference yesterday said it all. Johnson post-Brexit wanted that India trade deal more than anything so kept the planes flying into Heathrow when Australia had banned all flights including returning citizens. He is an utter piece of useless shit.

Oh and also generally more infectious tends to mean less deadly. After all, it's not in the virus interest to kill everyone because then it doesn't have a host.
So eventually this virus will likely become akin to a cold...everyone gets them but not very deadly

Article in The Guardian yesterday outlining the modelling and what could happen come July. I despair.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk

@Horehound

So I'm trying to explain why ALL the leading UK scientists are highly concerned - that includes BOTH SAGE and Independent SAGE now as they're singing off the same hymn sheet.

While you are...... a lay-person attempting to argue that they're all wrong. I'll leave it to others to judge whether or not you have anything useful to say lol.

Also - wrong again here:

Oh and also generally more infectious tends to mean less deadly. After all, it's not in the virus interest to kill everyone because then it doesn't have a host. So eventually this virus will likely become akin to a cold...everyone gets them but not very deadly

Nope - viruses will tend to mutate into less harmful forms if they are killing their hosts before they can infect others. That is NOT the case with covid and never has been as the IFR is