SAGE Emergency Meeting Minutes:

[PrincessNutNuts]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

21. SPI-M-O is therefore confident that B.1.617.2 has a significant growth advantage over the UK’s currently dominant strain, B.1.1.7. The difference in growth rates between B.1.617.2 and B.1.1.7 is consistent with the former having a transmission advantage of more than 50%;this is based on observed growth that has already happened and it is unclear whether this same growth advantage would apply to sustained wider community transmission regionally or nationally. Resolving this question of the applicability of this growth advantage to the wider population will be difficult while the number of cases are small and relatively focussed.

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

@Horehound

Oh and also generally more infectious tends to mean less deadly. After all, it's not in the virus interest to kill everyone because then it doesn't have a host. So eventually this virus will likely become akin to a cold...everyone gets them but not very deadly

More successful at spreading mutations tend to dominate over less successful at spreading ones.

Original covid wasn't very good at infecting humans.

The Kent variant was 70% better at it which is why it kept us in restrictions for the last 7 months and STILL managed to kill 80,000 of us.

The Indian variant is 50% better at it than Kent is.

Variants don't need to be more deadly or evade the vaccines, more transmissible is enough.

We know this because of the havoc the Kent variant was able to cause.

And this one is 50% better at it.

@Horehound

Oh and also generally more infectious tends to mean less deadly. After all, it's not in the virus interest to kill everyone because then it doesn't have a host. So eventually this virus will likely become akin to a cold...everyone gets them but not very deadly

No it doesn’t. More transmissible means more people will catch it and mathematically it is inevitable more will die as a result. This virus transmits in the presymtomatic phase the most and replicates then. It doesn’t matter if its host then dies. That is what makes this virus so dangerous.

The sense of excitement on this thread is tangible!

[quote bookworm1632]@Horehound

So I'm trying to explain why ALL the leading UK scientists are highly concerned - that includes BOTH SAGE and Independent SAGE now as they're singing off the same hymn sheet.

While you are...... a lay-person attempting to argue that they're all wrong. I'll leave it to others to judge whether or not you have anything useful to say lol.

Also - wrong again here:

Oh and also generally more infectious tends to mean less deadly. After all, it's not in the virus interest to kill everyone because then it doesn't have a host. So eventually this virus will likely become akin to a cold...everyone gets them but not very deadly

Nope - viruses will tend to mutate into less harmful forms if they are killing their hosts before they can infect others. That is NOT the case with covid and never has been as the IFR is

@Letsgetreadytocrumble

The sense of excitement on this thread is tangible!

Some people actually follow the science unlike Johnson and co and are very concerned about what is likely to unfold over the summer months.

I want to know the unvarnished truth, but really, OP, you have sounded increasingly gleeful the last few days.

Ah I see this thread is for people who want lockdowns to continue forever..

I'm at the end of my tether with it all. I've crawled through this year with 8 weeks of work under my belt, I'm hanging on for hospitality to reopen so I can go back to work, a job that I love and am really good at.
My mood was already very low, if I didn't have children I really don't think that I would have made it this far.
There's more to life than not dying, protecting a health care system is so important, its not just about covid patients, it's every one else requiring health care, so I fully understand why we need to have lockdowns, but personally, I don't think that I would cope with this half life for much longer.

@IrmaFayLear

I want to know the unvarnished truth, but really, OP, you have sounded increasingly gleeful the last few days.

Oh yeah I'm thrilled. Who wouldn't be.

Our government let the most dangerous variant so far wander in through the departure lounges of our airports and seed itself all over our country in over 50 locations about a month ago.

Our test and trace system is a farce so we're not equipped to fight it.

Our government won't even tell us all the towns it's been found in - but give it a fortnight and the doubling every week should make it obvious.

And on Monday the government is opening up to really get the party started.

This is going to be why we spend the rest of the year in restrictions.

I hope none of us had plans for July onwards.

Who wouldn't be fucking "gleeful" about that?!

@BlossomCat

I'm at the end of my tether with it all. I've crawled through this year with 8 weeks of work under my belt, I'm hanging on for hospitality to reopen so I can go back to work, a job that I love and am really good at. My mood was already very low, if I didn't have children I really don't think that I would have made it this far. There's more to life than not dying, protecting a health care system is so important, its not just about covid patients, it's every one else requiring health care, so I fully understand why we need to have lockdowns, but personally, I don't think that I would cope with this half life for much longer.

None of us can.

Which is why this bloody government needs to do their fucking job and stop just letting this happen over and over and over again.

Agree @PrincessNutsNuts. Welcome to Sleepwalking into Disaster Part 2.

I won’t be adhering to restrictions again. No need.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Wow. Thanks for posting this. (Genuine) thanks for giving me something to worry about to distract me from the worries which have me awake at this time of night!

I knew Boris must have been told something as big as this t make him actually tell the nation that Step Four was under threat.

I was up watching my cousins wedding in NZ.

That we couldn't fucking go to because our useless government just lets covid waltz in and spread over and over again.

I hope you feel better.

The middle of the night is the worst time when you have worries, isn't it?

Evolutionary pressure means that variants which are better at transmitting under social distancing pressure...will invariably out perform against other variants when under social distancing pressure.

The obviously overlooked factor in the rapid spread of this variant in India then beyond, is the huge, tightly packed religious and political gatherings which occurred recently in India, which wasn't immune to covid, it simply hadn't had a good superspreader event as we had in our absoutely essential ski hols in early 2020. This outcome was totally inevitable as soon as those events took place.

The only questions which matter are whether the vaccine works against it (current thinking is "yes") and whether hospitals will be overwhelmed beyond what is normal for a big flu winter.

We're far enough along with vaccinating all vulnerable, elderly and even the middle aged that it seems statistically unlikely that the hospitals will be overwhelmed by the severely ill.

The inevitable refrain is "but long covid!", to which I would say that we have had "long flu" and "long cold" for decades (variously diagnosed, often in women, as fibromyalgia, chronic fatigue, depression, anxiety and basically malingering) and yet we never put the world to a stop. Indeed, if vaccines prevent most severe illness, it stands to reason that they will prevent most or all "long covid" also.

We have vaccines. They work. Time to get on with it.

@Letsgetreadytocrumble

The sense of excitement on this thread is tangible!

Isn't it just!

@Letsgetreadytocrumble

The sense of excitement on this thread is tangible!

It really is.

It makes my heart sink though because the lowest common denominator is what has won for the past year

I worry about our relatives in Asia near to India - dh has lost 2 of his cousins to covid - but because this is a poor country with poor medical & other infrastructure the number of cases & deaths are most probably massively under reported & the news are probably not reporting everything
Cummins of all people (the hypocrisy is overwhelming!) is saying that Boris shouldn't be opening the lockdown further! Of course he has his knife into Boris, but the irony of the man who was advising opening/delaying shutdowns & ignoring rules!
I think at the very least we have to continue shut down locally to the outbreaks & halt the final stage of opening - the result if we don't is not something we want to consider & I am not excited by catastrophic possibilities - I am concerned at Boris's short sightedness & that he ignores his experts advice

Thanks @PrincessNutNuts - nothing EVER seems as bad in the morning as it does in the middle of the night!

I’m not excited at the prospect of my 7 year old missing out on more school and not seeing my family who live in another part of the country for months on end. All I feel now is utter despair and anger at the government for letting this happen again.

The Indian variant has already spread across the world , as the Kent variant did . Unless you stop all lorries from Europe as well as every single flight any variant is going to be hard to stop .

Plus I am sure you all realise the virus can mutate here again as well .

One if the bigger problems in the hardest hit area appears to be the take up on the vaccines . Let’s hope that can be turned round .

A close eye must be kept of the hospitalisation and the age of those with the Indian variant and that is what they are trying to do .

I think from all the posts critical of the decisions it’s is still 50 / 50 about continuing lockdowns so it’s a no win situation.

Unfortunately I think people will wonder what the point of lock downs are when we seem incapable of closing our borders and stopping letting these strains in.

Feeling naughty and guilty for driving to a local natinal trust property to walk and run, where we don't see others as its a huge site and follow all the other rules! And the government has been shipping in a rampant new strain.

Fgs, people fined for sitting in their car eating a sandwich in a car park, whilst others are travelling across the globe unhindered. I am so

@IloveSooty424

I’m not excited at the prospect of my 7 year old missing out on more school and not seeing my family who live in another part of the country for months on end. All I feel now is utter despair and anger at the government for letting this happen again.

That's how I feel.

inews.co.uk/news/politics/indian-variant-vaccine-efficacy-covid-strain-modest-reduction-1001431

[quote TruelyWonder]inews.co.uk/news/politics/indian-variant-vaccine-efficacy-covid-strain-modest-reduction-1001431[/quote]
Yes @TruelyWonder

As well as being more transmissible enough to cause a massive wave even though half the country is vaccinated...

They also think the Indian variant causes a reduction in vaccine effectiveness...

A massive well done to our government for jetting it in and letting it spread.