SAGE Emergency Meeting Minutes:

[PrincessNutNuts]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

21. SPI-M-O is therefore confident that B.1.617.2 has a significant growth advantage over the UK’s currently dominant strain, B.1.1.7. The difference in growth rates between B.1.617.2 and B.1.1.7 is consistent with the former having a transmission advantage of more than 50%;this is based on observed growth that has already happened and it is unclear whether this same growth advantage would apply to sustained wider community transmission regionally or nationally. Resolving this question of the applicability of this growth advantage to the wider population will be difficult while the number of cases are small and relatively focussed.

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

@bumbleymummy

1. It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible.There are also plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible.

[quote MarcelineMissouri]More good news coming in on the vaccines

twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1393611601819938817?s=21[/quote]
10. Early indications are that there is some antigenic distance between B.1.617.2 and wild-type virus, and that this distance is greater than that for B.1.1.7, but less than for B.1.351, and similar to that for B.1.617.1 (low confidence). This means that there may be some reduction in protection given by vaccines or by naturally acquired immunity from past infection, though data on this are still mixed.

@PrincessNutNuts not sure what point you’re trying to make with your reply. Data is mixed.... so we need to look at all the data coming in. I’m posting some more data.

It's clear any single thing anyone says that is slightly positive, the op will counter act with something from her notes, whether it relevant or not.

Bizarre.

So depressing! Damn the bloody Chinese for letting this plague escape.

Yes.

[quote MarcelineMissouri]More good news coming in on the vaccines

twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1393611601819938817?s=21[/quote]
What % of the unvaccinated control group got covid?

Stay in if you want to and let the rest of us get back to work and feeding our families .
We can monitor and go back a step and we are not even fully opening just loosening a few restrictions

Also word could means just that its jot definate

@Horehound this OP always has negative posts you can search up any latest ones, fair being concerned but being so invested in doom and gloom

What % of the unvaccinated control group got covid?

It was an observational study of healthcare workers @PrincessNutNuts. It would be unethical to have a control group of healthcare workers left unvaccinated.

@PrincessNutNuts it is quite clear that it was not that kind of study so your question is completely pointless. That doesn’t make it useless data. It is a piece of a bigger picture that will hopefully show the vaccines remain effective.

I have seen enough of your posts to realise you probably won’t see it that way though.

The Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi said on Saturday on the basis of an observational study that 97.38 per cent of those vaccinated were protected from the COVID-19 infection and the chances of hospitalisation after the vaccination are 0.06 per cent.

Real world data trumps serum based studies everytime. That is because the immune system T cells and B cells help. You don't get that in a lab dish. That is why the vaccineshave done far better than expected across the world so far

You can't argue with real world data

@TruelyWonder

You can't argue with real world data

You still need more to back it up. Are the elderly now shielding? Have so many thousands of them died already that there are fewer elderly people now anyway?

In 2020, the average person in India wouldn’t expect to reach 70 years of age. It’s not comparable to somewhere like Hong Kong where you are expected to live into your mid to late 80s. So whilst your chart might show deaths falling in over 60s, a lot of the population would never have reached that decade anyway let alone go into their 70s, 80s, 90s or beyond as they do elsewhere.

So whilst it’s great that deaths in the over 60s are falling in India, it can be argued with in terms of what it means.

Like I said before we have not got great evidence yet coming out of India. However early things like this are all looking pretty good so far.

Definitely paint a different picture to the one we have been getting here. Most experts real do believe that the vaccines have all know variants covered when it comes to serious illness and death. It is just the question of how effective against infection and transmission.

How are other countries handling this though.

The Kent variant was ours - this very much isnt and is in a lot of other countries who dont seem to have gone into complete panic mode about it.

What I read in it though is that clearly it is spreading through households and close knit communities very quickly and that these close knit communities have low vaccine uptake. What is unclear (and I read this from the report) is how it will translate into the wider communities.

We dont have more of it than other countries - we are simply more aware of it

‘Vaccines are nearly as effective against the Indian variant’

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccines-are-nearly-as-effective-against-the-indian-variant-2rdqx5bdr

@Letsgetreadytocrumble

The sense of excitement on this thread is tangible!

I was just thinking the same. All the pseudo-scientists rubbing their hands with glee at the chance to speak to speak in an incredibly condescending tone and so desperately trying to sound intelligent - posts full of passive aggressive ‘how are people not getting this’ bollocks. They just sound like utter dicks.

And that’s before you talk about how damn excited they are at the prospect of another lockdown!

@Horehound

It's clear any single thing anyone says that is slightly positive, the op will counter act with something from her notes, whether it relevant or not.

Bizarre.

It’s her MO. I usually have an inward eye roll whenever she posts as they’re always the same.

And that’s before you talk about how damn excited they are at the prospect of another lockdown!

I hope that nobody wants another lockdown. The reasons for one and repercussions caused by them are devastating. Whilst they definitely have had their place in the past, actively wanting one and what that means to achieve is surely not what a normal person would want?

The thing is, the OP et al were saying we were heading for disaster before we knew anything about the Indian variant taking hold here and when the prospects with the vaccination programme were looking good.

So they have just seized upon this, as they will about the Falkland Islands/ Madagascan/Mars variants when they turn up. It may be that we are completely doomed, but the Indian variant has been a useful new tool in some posters’ arsenal.

I am concerned too OP, and think that the posters on here who advocate "learning to live with it" haven't got enough imagination to consider what "learning to live with it" might look like in the future.

Omg this is amazing. Has the op and her chums even looked at what SAGE are predicting. It's not even possible lol

The Kent variant was ours - this very much isnt and is in a lot of other countries who dont seem to have gone into complete panic mode about it.

To be fair I don't think the country has gone into panic mode? The road map is progressing as planned with more restrictions easing tomorrow.

There's still a lot of uncertainty about the indian variant (transmissibility, effectiveness of various vaccines) which is why people are urging caution until we know more.