SAGE Emergency Meeting Minutes:

[PrincessNutNuts]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

21. SPI-M-O is therefore confident that B.1.617.2 has a significant growth advantage over the UK’s currently dominant strain, B.1.1.7. The difference in growth rates between B.1.617.2 and B.1.1.7 is consistent with the former having a transmission advantage of more than 50%;this is based on observed growth that has already happened and it is unclear whether this same growth advantage would apply to sustained wider community transmission regionally or nationally. Resolving this question of the applicability of this growth advantage to the wider population will be difficult while the number of cases are small and relatively focussed.

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Here's the chart on what they think a more transmissible variant can do even if it doesn't reduce vaccine effectiveness at all.

Not even modestly.

So what is it youre wanting to do about it ok? Just moan about it? Or what?

Sage predicted a huge spike of deaths after kids were allowed back to school. That didn't happen.

@Letsgetreadytocrumble

The sense of excitement on this thread is tangible!

I knew who the author of this thread was going to be before clicking on it, although I wasn't quite sure which user name it would be today.

Yes, it's quite clear why this thread was created!

The truth is we just don't know enough yet. They can model all they like but without the right information it is impossible to predict accurately. We need to wait a couple of weeks.

I like the article that I linked to it balanced up everything perfectly without the normal media drama

@TruelyWonder

The truth is we just don't know enough yet. They can model all they like but without the right information it is impossible to predict accurately. We need to wait a couple of weeks.

Yes, let’s wait and see, that’s worked so well in past. The government should cancel the relaxation of restrictions on Monday. That could make a massive difference to how this plays out, according to modelling from top universities in the country. I linked a Guardian article earlier in the thread that set out this modelling.

Chris Whitty yesterday was categorical that the Indian variant would become the dominant variant in the country.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Thanks *@PrincessNutNuts* - nothing EVER seems as bad in the morning as it does in the middle of the night!

Except maybe for this catalogue of incompetence over this new variant. The more I read the worse it flippin' gets.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Wow it’s there in black and white. People that were against putting off stage 3 for now thinking it will only cause more economic damage are actually advocating for another full lockdown. Surely this means we could be in the midst of an even bigger wave and lockdown straight through Christmas.

Wait until this reality starts hitting home.

Shit.

Shit just about covers it WiseOne.

And it was completely avoidable.

All the government had to do was do their best not to let it in, and act fast if it did.

Instead they invited it in, watched it walk in through Arrivals for weeks, let it set up shop all over the country, and hamstrung local authorities trying to fight it - for about a month.

Until finally last Friday it was designated a Variant Of Concern which allowed surge testing etc.

If they put that in a film no one would believe the fictional government would be so bloody stupid.

@lonelyplanet

The government ignoring this report is disgusting.

I wonder if there was a row just before the briefing. Patrick Vallance was supposed to be there and he wasn't. The briefing was late, Chris Whitty looked tense and the Prime Minister kept smirking inappropriately - which made me wonder if he was nervous.

Aren’t you exhausted OP? Chill a bit

Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Forgive me if I'm wrong but a "pharmaceutical intervention" could be something small as taking a paracetamol...

You have misunderstood @Horehound and @mrshoho. It doesn't mean that pharmaceutical interventions could prevent the NHS being overwhelmed.

It means that there aren't even adults vaccinated to reduce transmission and keep R low and the NHS may be overwhelmed if non-pharmaceutical interventions (ie not drugs) are not taken to lower transmission ie lockdown, masks, social distancing.

even should be enough

@blueangel19

Aren’t you exhausted OP? Chill a bit

Yep. Up half the night watching my cousin in NZ's wedding. Gutted we couldn't go.

Early tea and early night for us all tonight.

Assuming I stop raging at the repeated incompetence of our government for letting the world's worst variant seed itself all over our country and putting us through this shit over and over again.

@TruelyWonder

The truth is we just don't know enough yet. They can model all they like but without the right information it is impossible to predict accurately. We need to wait a couple of weeks.

We've already waited all of April and half of May.

Could we not maybe act quickly to prevent another lockdown this time? Not sure I can do another 13 months like the last 13 months.

No Patrick Vallance alongside the Prime Minister yesterday, no indication if any government minister was present (as 13 observers redacted). Perhaps explains his absence.

It cannot be easy for anyone to work alongside someone who consistency ignores your professional advice.

So we just lockdown every time there is a variant or a mutation? Forever? How do we import food etc. without importing mutations/variants? If the vaccines don’t work so that the NHS is going to be overwhelmed every time this mutates then it is not fit for purpose and clearly needs an overhaul which is going to be paid for how when businesses are closed and not generating taxes? I just don’t understand how people seem to think we are going to be able to live like this indefinitely.

New Zealand is close to all arrivals except Australia. And the Indian variant is in Australia already? So who are you going to blame for that.

@Barbadosgirl

So we just lockdown every time there is a variant or a mutation? Forever? How do we import food etc. without importing mutations/variants? If the vaccines don’t work so that the NHS is going to be overwhelmed every time this mutates then it is not fit for purpose and clearly needs an overhaul which is going to be paid for how when businesses are closed and not generating taxes? I just don’t understand how people seem to think we are going to be able to live like this indefinitely.

It's not the NHS that's not fit for purpose. It's our government's covid response.

The government didn't even try to stop this one getting in or stop it spreading when it got here.

And now they've let it in, let it spread, and are opening up on Monday to help it spread to another 50 towns this will probably end up in Lockdown 4, yeah.

But take it up with the government.

I'm not the one who hasn't bothered to put in place effective border controls or effective test, trace and isolate systems.

I'm not the one who puts all the onus on us to test our children all the time, socially distance, wear masks, not have our friends round and not hug our families...

@ all Barbadosgirl Exactly people are so irrational but it is mostly because they want to criticise the government. See the assumptions that there was a fight previous to the announcements yesterday. How ridiculous this speculation is getting?

@blueangel19

New Zealand is close to all arrivals except Australia. And the Indian variant is in Australia already? So who are you going to blame for that.

Has it been in 50 locations in NZ for weeks and the NZ govt kept it quiet because there was an election on?

Are NZ pretending it's not a problem and opening up to help it spread?

Or did NZ do their best to keep it out and are now doing their best to shut it down?

@newnortherner111

No Patrick Vallance alongside the Prime Minister yesterday, no indication if any government minister was present (as 13 observers redacted). Perhaps explains his absence.

It cannot be easy for anyone to work alongside someone who consistency ignores your professional advice.

It would drive me crackers. I can't work for idiots.

But the NHS is not fit for purpose if it cannot cope every time this virus mutates (which it is going to do) in circumstances where we have a vaccine. We cannot keep all mutations out unless we stop importing anything and even if we did, it could mutate here anyway.

The vaccines either work or they don’t. If they don’t then we are going to have to live with it. We cannot keep locking down forever. Every single time we ease restrictions, there is always a reason why not according to some. We cannot hermetically seal ourselves indoors forever, much as some people would like to.

Germany had a blinding test and trace system. That hasn’t worked. Italy and Spain had the most punitive lockdowns. That hasn’t worked. We are not New Zealand-we are a densely populated country which relies heavily on imports. COVID is here to stay.

Again Barbados you are quite right and reasonable.