SAGE Emergency Meeting Minutes:

[PrincessNutNuts]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

21. SPI-M-O is therefore confident that B.1.617.2 has a significant growth advantage over the UK’s currently dominant strain, B.1.1.7. The difference in growth rates between B.1.617.2 and B.1.1.7 is consistent with the former having a transmission advantage of more than 50%;this is based on observed growth that has already happened and it is unclear whether this same growth advantage would apply to sustained wider community transmission regionally or nationally. Resolving this question of the applicability of this growth advantage to the wider population will be difficult while the number of cases are small and relatively focussed.

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Thanks! I am no covid denier, government apologist or Laurence Fox acolyte but I just cannot believe it is proportionate or in the best interests of the majority to keep people going to their family’s house or having a socially distanced drink in a pub which is all we are asking come Monday. People cannot live like this forever.

@Barbadosgirl

How do you actually envisage us just living with Covid in a scenario where it is raging everywhere though?

@Barbadosgirl

But the NHS is not fit for purpose if it cannot cope every time this virus mutates (which it is going to do) in circumstances where we have a vaccine. We cannot keep all mutations out unless we stop importing anything and even if we did, it could mutate here anyway.

The vaccines either work or they don’t. If they don’t then we are going to have to live with it. We cannot keep locking down forever. Every single time we ease restrictions, there is always a reason why not according to some. We cannot hermetically seal ourselves indoors forever, much as some people would like to.

Germany had a blinding test and trace system. That hasn’t worked. Italy and Spain had the most punitive lockdowns. That hasn’t worked. We are not New Zealand-we are a densely populated country which relies heavily on imports. COVID is here to stay.

I agree but I think some people would be quite happy to see lockdown last for a long time yet. Never mind the economic damage from them. It really doesn't matter if a virus becomes more transmissible, provided it is not more deadly, there is nothing to show it is more deadly currently. The hope is that it does become like a common cold. It will not disappear.

Covid isn't "raging everywhere" at the moment though is it? It's fairly contained according to the numbers we're being given. Transmission depends on contact with an affected person - we're not all "walking vectors of disease" as most of us have been forced to isolate for months. UK population is what? 55 million or so? How many in total currently have it and are infectious? How many cases of the new variant are there? Should we not be applying a modicum of perspective here? We have vaccines, testing regimes ( however accurate they may be) we have masks and other mitigations in place. If Covid in all its forms is something we have to live with for the foreseeable future, then we should live with it and work around it if it can't/ won't be eliminated. That said, I can't for the life of me understand why young people in hospitality work and those likely to patronise it weren't offered the vaccine as priority when May 17th was proposed for opening up hospitality sectors. The government could have improved chances of avoiding the situation we're in now by this one simple strategy surely?

1. For the most recent week of the study (2 May to 8 May), the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey estimates that an average of 40,800 people had COVID-19 in the community in England (credible interval 31,900 to 50,900), 4,200 in Scotland (credible interval 1,900 to 7,700), 700 in Wales (credible interval 100 to 1,900) and 1,300 in Northern Ireland (credible interval 300 to 3000). SPI-M estimates that there are between 1,000 and 7,000 new infections per day in England.

The problem is that it has already been demonstrated by the UK and other countries that the choice is internal opening with no non-essential foreign travel or an endless cycle of lockdown and partial reopening.
The UK did the latter option last summer. I think most people wished we hadn't after the second lockdown.
Now the UK are set to repeat that option (mistake) all over again.

The problem is not internal reopening when cases are very low. That would have been totally fine. The problem was non-essential travel and travel without proper quarantine at the same time as internal reopening. Unfortunately the past year has shown us that this scenario is doomed to fail, probably even with vaccines.

But how can a government learn from mistakes if they don't actually listen to the science (or only choose to listen several weeks too late, repeatedly) and if saving lives and protecting health is not the main priority? And if they have donors and lobbyists they are beholden to and put above the general public?

Isn’t the point that if COVID “rages everywhere” with the vaccinations then nothing is going to work so we either live this way forever I.e. shutting down our businesses and not seeing our families and friends because of a disease that has a 0.1% mortality rate or we learn to live with the risk.

In all honesty the real world indications are that it will not “rage everywhere” due to the efficacy of the vaccines.

It’s not just covid that needs to be thought about though. Protection from covid is obvious (just stay in lockdown) but people continue to become ill from other things and loneliness/MH/the economy are too big to ignore.

@PrincessNutNuts

2. For the most recent week of the study (2 May to 8 May), the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey estimates that an average of 40,800 people had COVID-19 in the community in England (credible interval 31,900 to 50,900), 4,200 in Scotland (credible interval 1,900 to 7,700), 700 in Wales (credible interval 100 to 1,900) and 1,300 in Northern Ireland (credible interval 300 to 3000). SPI-M estimates that there are between 1,000 and 7,000 new infections per day in England.

And yet very few people are in hospital. That’s great news :)

@Barbadosgirl

Isn’t the point that if COVID “rages everywhere” with the vaccinations then nothing is going to work so we either live this way forever I.e. shutting down our businesses and not seeing our families and friends because of a disease that has a 0.1% mortality rate or we learn to live with the risk.

In all honesty the real world indications are that it will not “rage everywhere” due to the efficacy of the vaccines.

Exactly!

I have had Covid, have had both jabs, and do twice weekly lateral flow tests. Plus I have mostly stuck to the rules, haven't travelled abroad, haven't mixed in large numbers illegally. I'm not putting my life on hold for any longer because of other people's bad decisions, and will be seeing and mixing with whoever the fuck I like over the coming months.

Point 9 @bumbleymummy

1. If this variant were to have a 40% to 50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England (SAGE 88) indicate that it is likely that progressing with Step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks) Progressing with both Steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak. Smaller transmission advantage would lead to smaller peaks.

@OwlTwitterings

It’s not just covid that needs to be thought about though. Protection from covid is obvious (just stay in lockdown) but people continue to become ill from other things and loneliness/MH/the economy are too big to ignore.

And yet because of letting covid spread over and over again ignoring all that is exactly what we have been doing.

Maybe if we stopped this "substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to it larger than previous peaks" in its tracks now we could get back to working on some of that?

Or we could let the hospitals fill up with covid patients again and have another 7 months in restrictions.

@Barbadosgirl

Isn’t the point that if COVID “rages everywhere” with the vaccinations then nothing is going to work so we either live this way forever I.e. shutting down our businesses and not seeing our families and friends because of a disease that has a 0.1% mortality rate or we learn to live with the risk.

In all honesty the real world indications are that it will not “rage everywhere” due to the efficacy of the vaccines.

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

You seem to be assuming that the benefits of a vaccine rollout that is finished and we have crossed the herd immunity threshold is the same as one that has fully vaccinated 29% of the population, and currently leaves 46% completely unvaccinated.

In 2 weeks time, not that much will be different. Yes more people will be vaccinated, which should help with transmission, but waiting 2 weeks won’t stop a 3rd wave if it’s otherwise coming, will it?

@Horehound

...could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions

Forgive me if I'm wrong but a "pharmaceutical intervention" could be something small as taking a paracetamol...

30+ million people vaccinated and those j the higher risk groups. Surely now the people who do get it will mainly be asymptomatic or require little intervention?

Non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) means things like lockdowns and travel restrictions. i.e. measures taken to prevent or slow down the spread of a disease other than drug treatments and vaccines.

@FictionalCharacter yes I misread that I am exhausted today!
And in what circumstance have we had zero NPI during this pandemic? Oh that's right, never!

@SlipperyDippery

In 2 weeks time, not that much will be different. Yes more people will be vaccinated, which should help with transmission, but waiting 2 weeks won’t stop a 3rd wave if it’s otherwise coming, will it?

Whereas we know opening up for two weeks will definitely make things worse.

We don't have to throw fuel on the fire and make things worse for ourselves.

We could act early during a change instead of always too little too late.

With exponential growth the sooner you act the smaller the wave.

The longer you leave it the bigger the peak and the longer the lockdown.

It's just maths.

Shall we regroup in two weeks see if it's dominant yet? (It won't be. I reckon that'll take 4-6.)

Lockdown summer here we come.

I feel so sorry for all those people whose weddings talready been cancelled once - or twice - and Boris Johnson is fucking over again.

princess

How long do you think we need to stay locked down for due to this Indian variant? I’m curious because I don’t want another wave. I don’t want people to die and I don’t want yet more restrictions. However while I supported the current lockdown I am acutely aware of the unbearable suffering lockdowns cause and will continue to cause for many years. My worry is that if we stay locked down for an indefinite period now due to this new variant, what’s the exit plan? What about if when that exit plan comes round there’s another new variant which evades the vaccine or is more infectious? What if the current vaccines start losing efficacy and the vulnerable need boosters?

The lights will never all be on green for us to open up, not for the foreseeable future. We may be better placed to open up now than we will be for some time. Not opening on a Monday doesn’t mean we won’t have to lock down or implement restrictions later in the year anyway. We have to give people some respite while we can.

(As far as I’m concerned we’re basically still locked down with the current very high level of restrictions)

So basically the problem is unvaccinated people. They need to do what some nations are doing - not permitting visits to shops or restaurants unless you have either a negative pcr, a vaccine passport or a positive covid result less than 6 months old. It's draconian but it's working in the countries that are doing this.

@PrincessNutNuts

Point 9 *@bumbleymummy*

1. If this variant were to have a 40% to 50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England (SAGE 88) indicate that it is likely that progressing with Step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks) Progressing with both Steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak. Smaller transmission advantage would lead to smaller peaks.

IF

And who cares if it becomes the more dominant strain as long as it isn’t causing more hospitalisations/deaths?

I wonder how US is doing? They closed the flights from India a lot later than the UK plus their vaccine uptake is a lot lower than here.

If you read the statement in full @bumbleymummy it says that there is evidence that suggests the Indian variant does have a transmission advantage of more than 50% over the Kent variant.

"SPI-M-O is therefore confident that B.1.617.2 has a significant growth advantage over the UK’s currently dominant strain, B.1.1.7. The difference in growth rates between B.1.617.2 and B.1.1.7 is consistent with the former having a transmission advantage of more than 50%; this is based on observed growth that has already happened and it is unclear whether this same growth advantage would apply to sustained wider community transmission regionally or nationally"

More good news coming in on the vaccines

twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1393611601819938817?s=21