Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

I guess the summer holidays may help a bit, but it won't have gone away by the autumn.

I expect UK to offer vaccines to 12-15 year olds in late July - August.

If the Indian variant is 20-30% more transmissible than the Kent one, the most pragmatic way to achieve herd immunity is by vaccinating teenagers. We could get away without it previously when we only had to deal with the Kent variant. WIth the increase in transmissibility, we will have to expand vaccine coverage:

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1393932718048751616

Sorry boys3 - I promise to stand in silence in the naughty corner for not paying attention.

On sewage, a snippet here says the monitoring is up to 70% now, so slow progress in getting it all up as we know the target is >90% but maybe slowed down by starting to genome test at each location:
"Monitoring travel patterns, along withanalysis of wastewater- or sewage - in 70% of the country had helped identify where variants were and also where they were at risk of spreading to, he said."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57172139

I think the exit plan is "we stop testing kids" so then no more isolations, but I do agree that that viewpoint is not going to happen for a long time, even though it's the only choice.

But the lack of support for isolation "Why are you stopping my kid going to school when granny can go on a cruise?" is not going to last that long.

[quote wintertravel1980]I guess the summer holidays may help a bit, but it won't have gone away by the autumn.

I expect UK to offer vaccines to 12-15 year olds in late July - August.

If the Indian variant is 20-30% more transmissible than the Kent one, the most pragmatic way to achieve herd immunity is by vaccinating teenagers. We could get away without it previously when we only had to deal with the Kent variant. WIth the increase in transmissibility, we will have to expand vaccine coverage:

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1393932718048751616[/quote]
I think this too. The NHS website is now open to 34s, at this rate we will have gotten to 18 year olds by end of June. I fully expect them to start on school age teens in July.

I didn't think we will (or should) stop testing kids. Isolating sick people is clearly one of the "baseline controls" that will continue to be needed probably indefinitely. Teachers aren't going to be ok about having kids with Covid in their classrooms, and not knowing because they're not tested. Catching Covid is going to happen at most once per child so won't be a huge disruption to their education. But we do need to do something to stop them having to isolate every time they're identified as a contact. I'm hoping that they relax the rules on contacts having to isolate for vaccinated people (or those who've had Covid). Their risk of catching it is about 5% of an unvaccinated person, with a further 50% reduction in passing it on. Only about 10% of contacts tested positive anyway, so that leaves a tiny risk for vaccinated contacts becoming infections. (0.25%) not sufficient risk to require them to isolate for 10 days IMO.

I agree we should keep testing kids, but this should replace self isolation, once teachers are all double vaccinated. If there is a case in class then the rest of the class should be allowed to attend on the basis of daily tests (unless there is a specific reason such as a teacher or a pupil in the class who is CEV in which case remote learning should kick in)

I agree with you all on testing but not isolating contacts so it’s a one off event per child.

Hard to know when this will be addressed though

This isn't about teachers though, necessarily, who remain 2m away. This is about spread in the school and then onwards to households? Various studies show that this definitely happens.

Only in primary are whole classes sent home really.

Asa cautionary tale, there is a school in my town with 50 confirmed cases.

I don't agree that children can be asked to keep testing twice per week indefinitely with no symptoms, unless the tests are made less invasive. Removing isolation time is important, but I think there should be the option to vaccinate older children and then have the focus only on those with symptoms.

I'd prefer to see less acceptance in general that's it's somehow "good" for immune systems to have unwell children attend school high on Calpol and spreading hundreds of viruses that then pass through every school and nursery in the area. There is no research that has ever shown this to be necessary for the immune system, only that children need exposure to SOME viruses (including vaccines) and general dirt. Staying home a couple of days while attending lessons online should become the norm for snotty, feverish or vomiting kids, to take them past the most infectious period for whatever they have while missing a minimum of educational content. Employers will need help with paying cover for those who must work outside the home, but ultimately it will benefit everyone in overall reduced virus absence or slower working if we reduce virus spread among kids.

But @Firefliess, those %rates are all for wild or possibly Kent variant, we don’t yet know whether the Indian (or future) variants will change any of them.

This may be what Bedford is, in part, up against...

The couple are aware of the latest coronavirus statistics in Bedford. Yet both say they do not want to be vaccinated.

"Maybe if I see in the future that people who are vaccinated cannot catch the coronavirus, then yes." says Linda.

"But for the moment, no. I don't trust this vaccination."

The rise in cases and the emergence of the Indian variant, she says, does not change her view on whether or not to have the vaccine.

Her partner Oskar's scepticism does not stop at the vaccine.

"I don't believe all this corona thing and I don't want to be vaccinated at all," he says.

"We need to look at and observe the vaccine which was only introduced a few months ago.

"We are just like experimental bodies."

From the BBC.

@Piggywaspushed

This isn't about teachers though, necessarily, who remain 2m away. This is about spread in the school and then onwards to households? Various studies show that this definitely happens.

Only in primary are whole classes sent home really.

Asa cautionary tale, there is a school in my town with 50 confirmed cases.

And primary children being sent home is the most disruptive to working parents

Given that over 34s can now book vaccines, there can’t be that many parents who won’t have had at least one jab by the middle of June, and any vulnerable parents will have had both

I agree MRex : I so wish we could tackle to culture of presenteeism. It is rife in teaching, too. (and many jobs where absence causes issues for others)

Agreed ceevee but I think we need to exercise extreme caution for now.

@Firefliess

I didn't think we will (or should) stop testing kids. Isolating sick people is clearly one of the "baseline controls" that will continue to be needed probably indefinitely. Teachers aren't going to be ok about having kids with Covid in their classrooms, and not knowing because they're not tested. Catching Covid is going to happen at most once per child so won't be a huge disruption to their education. But we do need to do something to stop them having to isolate every time they're identified as a contact. I'm hoping that they relax the rules on contacts having to isolate for vaccinated people (or those who've had Covid). Their risk of catching it is about 5% of an unvaccinated person, with a further 50% reduction in passing it on. Only about 10% of contacts tested positive anyway, so that leaves a tiny risk for vaccinated contacts becoming infections. (0.25%) not sufficient risk to require them to isolate for 10 days IMO.

Isolating due to having covid once doesn’t disrupt education, but isolating every time someone in your bubble/school bus tests positive could. The roadmap said all covid measured released on 21st June and whilst this date may be pushed back I hope this does actually happen. They cannot say all measured have gone if contacts are still being asked to isolate.

Yes piggy, I saw some vox pops from Bedford on the local news (I think) last night, similar.

As I’ve said for over a year, the messaging a vital, and not right enough at present. Was going to say “wrong”, but then remembered that most people did keep to lockdown rules, most are being vaccinated, etc. Maybe govt needs to look much more at local targeted messaging because that seems to be where the problems are, ie it doesn’t matter if the National “average” compliance is high, when there are pockets of high non compliance / anti vaxxism. Of course if everyone was paid to isolate this would help in practical and conceptual ways......

Those Bolton numbers !

Here

(Don’t look at this is you’re having a bad day...)
Am not sure we’ve looked to the black fungus infection spreading in India in the wake of Covid yet?

www.insider.com/indias-covid-crisis-compounded-by-black-fungus-epidemic-spreading-hospitals-2021-5?fbclid=IwAR3OvXlo2NHKDFGOaWIuqeO8Yw2zRn12WXa3zG9jDw10Vf2y5n1asHedG8w

@ceeveebee it depends where you live. I am cev but I was reading here that everyone who was cev at the time had been offered a jab. In reality although I kept checking the website, there was never any available slots. I have seen various friends on social media also post at times for help to find somewhere they can get vaccinated. Some have travelled thirty miles for a jab.
So the picture is far more varied than the government say it is.

And yes the Bolton numbers are shocking. If that replicates over England, then we are in trouble.

That article doesn't really explain why mucormycosis is happening. It's thought the main issue is unclean water being used in industrial oxygen preparation instead of following medical grade oxygen production processes to ensure the oxygen is clean. Linked with steroids to combat covid it creates a huge problem. I'd read something a while back and can't find it, maybe linked to the British Asian Trust oxygen fundraising. This article suggests much the same thing: www.indiatoday.in/amp/coronavirus-outbreak/story/black-fungus-treatment-covid19-oxygen-crisis-1804817-2021-05-20.

It's likely to be a big problem for other unprepared developing countries in future too. We can hope India's government learn from this in improving the processes to create oxygen supplies, and that other governments see it and prep. But it's a mess for sure.

Ah thanks MRex, I was wondering whether it was a specific healthcare phenomenon in India/similar countries.

Given that over 34s can now book vaccines

A problem in my (hotspot) area is that it is AZ only, so not sure how those under 40 are managing.