Good News - Thread 13. 40/30s and onwards to the roaring 20s.

[PomLikeTheBattle]

New thread 😊

3 deaths today. I know there’s a weekend lag and deaths may ramp up in a few weeks, but it’s kind of good news. Also cases haven’t hit 10k yet.

Let’s wait and see what Boris says this evening!

The increase in cases has started to slow down in the last few days as well. Too early to be a sign of cases peaking but its something to keep an eye on.

Figures from the last week.

Thanks Bordois, this is good to see.

@Bordois

Figures from the last week.

could It be cuz it's weekend?

All things are possible. It is yet again a wait and see

Suggestions of twenty thousand a day then leveling off. So anything less is good news.

It could all have been a travel, celebration, and half term family visits inflating numbers after all. Now that would be pretty embarrassing for everyone. Not very likely but never say never. After all household transmission is much higher etc

Has anyone cancelled and rebooked Pfizer for closer to 8 weeks? Mines currently booked for 11+2 but I don't want to lose the location I've got!

Suggestions of twenty thousand a day then leveling off. So anything less is good news

I've seen predictions of 100k a day by the 21st june...

@Bordois

Suggestions of twenty thousand a day then leveling off. So anything less is good news

I've seen predictions of 100k a day by the 21st june...

I think that’s if the doubling keeps occurring by week 4 which is mid July the worst case is 100k daily cases which would be a problem especially with school holidays just starting. Hopefully it levels off before and we avoid further delays 🙏🏻

I saw that too @Bordois
They must be right, they have graphs and everything....

From BBC website:

The two Covid vaccines most in use in the UK are "highly effective" in preventing hospital admission with the Delta variant, new data from Public Health England suggests.

Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca jabs can cope with the variant first identified in India as the Alpha variant first identified in Kent, the research found.

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was found to be 94% effective against hospital admission after just one dose, and 96% after two doses.

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was found to be 71% effective against hospital admission after one dose, and 92% after two doses.

PHE says the protection against death is expected to be high, although further research is taking place.

@LivinLaVidaLoki

I saw that too *@Bordois* They must be right, they have graphs and everything....

🤣

This is the first time he has ever said that he will review after 2 weeks and if the data allows then may open earlier.....

@LivinLaVidaLoki

This is the first time he has ever said that he will review after 2 weeks and if the data allows then may open earlier.....

My money is on him reviewing the data in two weeks and the press start talking about either another extension or stronger restrictions in certain areas if not the whole country because the numbers will be rising too quickly.

I think that’s if the doubling keeps occurring by week 4 which is mid July the worst case is 100k daily cases

No, it was a very specific prediction of 100k cases a day by 21st June. Although no doubt there's some "get out clause" being prepared...

RP131 on twitter logs hospital admissions plotted against some of the Warwick/Imperial scenarios - but he actually does it 'close up' so each figure can be seen distinctly as opposed to the usual graph posted which makes it hard to discern.

Sorry, people in hospital, not admissions!

That is a good one. Thank you for posting it.

I know we are expecting a rise now but hopefully it will still stay under the lowest

(For goodness sake look what Imperial's computer of doom did again. Surely they need to bin whatever program they run it on now. Has that thing ever produced any predictions that are not wildly out? I can only remember these scary wrong ones)

@Bordois

RP131 on twitter logs hospital admissions plotted against some of the Warwick/Imperial scenarios - but he actually does it 'close up' so each figure can be seen distinctly as opposed to the usual graph posted which makes it hard to discern.

I’m not on Twitter so would you mind reposting this periodically as it’s updated so we can see how hospitalisations track?

Will do 😊

It's good news for people who need to organise weddings I guess. And people whose work relates to that.

Very interesting article in the Lancet which showed despite severe illness, few complications were seen at 6 months in children who had paediatric inflammatory syndrome.
I know there was a lot of anxiety about this, hopefully provides some reassurance.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00138-3/fulltext

[quote PomRuns]Very interesting article in the Lancet which showed despite severe illness, few complications were seen at 6 months in children who had paediatric inflammatory syndrome.
I know there was a lot of anxiety about this, hopefully provides some reassurance.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00138-3/fulltext[/quote]
Thanks Pom it all went a bit quiet on this

@Bordois

Will do 😊

Thank you

I feel weirdly reassured by last nights announcement. I think it was all the speculation and uncertainty that was getting me down.

Some really good points:

• they seem really confident that 19th July will happen
• vaccines work really well, and just as well against delta
• waiting until 19th July will ensure that all adults have been offered a first dose
• it’ll reduce this wave’s cases by around 50% (or was it hospitalisations? I might be remembering this bit wrong )

One thing I’m really looking forward to is stopping wearing my mask as it’s so hot! (I know that’s not guaranteed to happen but still we can hope).