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Good News - Thread 13. 40/30s and onwards to the roaring 20s.

992 replies

PomLikeTheBattle · 27/04/2021 19:18

New thread 😊

OP posts:
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42
TruelyonelastSchlep · 11/06/2021 19:43

Chicken - One reason is going to be double dosed people that are elderly or vulnerable may still get admitted but not be so sick they die.

Another is they have said treatment is so much better now. Before ICU admissions had a 40% chance of dieing. Now that has dropped to 20%.

Also the government are going to put admissions for covid and admissions with covid separately on the government dashboard soon. That will also tell us more.

worriedmother1 · 11/06/2021 19:54

@bollihigh

This is very good news it seems to getting more transmissible but a lot less deadly and the vaccines are holding up superbly. Could end up being no more than a cold at best which was always the hope.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/11/fully-vaccinated-people-account-5pc-delta-variant-infections/

Just five per cent of Indian variant infections are in people who have been fully vaccinated, latest figures show.

A Public Health England (PHE) briefing on the new variant that has been sweeping Britain, also known as the Delta variant, shows that the disease is predominantly affecting people who have yet to receive the jab.

Out of 33,206 cases sequenced since February 1, just 1,785 were in people who had been fully vaccinated and only 62 ended up being admitted to hospital compared with 397 of unvaccinated individuals.

The new data also show that the death rate is still very low with just 0.1 per cent of people catching the variant going on to die - 1 in 1,000 - although this may increase in the coming weeks because of the lag between cases, admissions and deaths.

In comparison, the death rate for people catching the Kent (or Alpha) variant is 1.7 per cent - 17 in 1,000.

So far there have been just 42 deaths from the Delta variant, and only 12 in fully vaccinated people. NHS leaders have previously said that those dying after being fully vaccinated are also suffering from "profound co-morbidities".

I just showed this to someone who said they've read the opposite - that it's more deadly. Hasn't said where they read that though.... do I presume an unreliable source??
EasterIssland · 11/06/2021 20:41

Young children have relative protection from coronavirus because their bodies produce a strong immune response to it, according to a study.

The University of Bristol and Bristol Royal Hospital for Children conducted research which found that infants produce relatively high levels of antibodies and immune cells which protect against the virus, compared to adults.

Researchers say the findings could help explain why younger children appear to be protected from the severe effects of Covid-19 at a time of their development when they could be more vulnerable, PA reports.

Dr Anu Goenka, clinical lecturer in paediatric infectious diseases and immunology at the University of Bristol, said the findings could help design vaccines which mimic the protection in children.

EasterIssland · 11/06/2021 20:42

@worriedmother1 the viruses when they’re more transmissible they also became less lethal. If they want to replicate more than they lose the chances of killing as easy.

Those viruses (Ebola) that are quite lethal are less transmissible.

TheChineseChicken · 11/06/2021 22:33

@TruelyonelastSchlep

Chicken - One reason is going to be double dosed people that are elderly or vulnerable may still get admitted but not be so sick they die.

Another is they have said treatment is so much better now. Before ICU admissions had a 40% chance of dieing. Now that has dropped to 20%.

Also the government are going to put admissions for covid and admissions with covid separately on the government dashboard soon. That will also tell us more.

Yep, all makes sense, thanks
TruelyonelastSchlep · 11/06/2021 22:36

Interesting

Good News - Thread 13. 40/30s and onwards to the roaring 20s.
TruelyonelastSchlep · 11/06/2021 22:51

This one used to slope steeply up from left to right. That is how much the vaccines are working ❤

Good News - Thread 13. 40/30s and onwards to the roaring 20s.
bollihigh · 12/06/2021 06:26

@worriedmother1 I'm no epidemiologist and given I want the old world back and soon I might be guilty of cherry-picking articles that agree with my outlook. That said the writer of the article is quite forceful in that assertion though with the usual 'we just don't have enough data' caveats.

Good comment under the article.

"The pesky delta variant is more transmittable - no real surprises there as that's the way viruses mutate to stay viable. Cases seem to be rising very quickly, but we seem to have found a faster way of turning out the tests, so whilst that may be true, direct comparisons with historical rise rates may be tricky

It may or may not be more dangerous. Hospitalisation rates are still very low, so the margin for error in these calculations is relatively high. Let's wait and see. Generally viruses mutate to be equally or less dangerous. Why would this be different?

People who've had two vaccinations can still catch it and get ill. The 'failure' rate for vaccines is likely going to be around 5%, and that seems to be in line with what we are seeing.

People who have had two vaccines can sadly die. Unfortunately also true, because the folks in that camp are likely to be older and/or with additional health issues. If it's your relative, it is heartbreaking and a personal loss that is hard to rationalise and you have my sympathy.....

Please let's just try to keep things in proportion. This thing is endemic, it will keep mutating. Make risk-based decisions with regards to your own health, and take care that your decisions don't put others at risk. "

hahaboink · 12/06/2021 08:20

Slightly off topic but still good news. The Oxford team recognised in the Queens Birthday Honours. www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/astrazeneca-oxford-science-obe-foreign-office-b940202.html

worriedmother1 · 12/06/2021 08:32

Thanks @bollihigh - I too am on the optimistic side!

BBC reporting that the lifting of restrictions to be delayed by 1 month - while it's not good news, I do think it's sensible news

fadingfast · 12/06/2021 17:02

What I don’t understand is why there seems to be this assumption that there will be an enormous exit wave one way or another, and even if we delay step 4 by a few weeks, it is just delaying the inevitable. But I don’t recall that happening in Israel when they opened up? Ok I know that Delta changes things a lot, and maybe they had the advantage of only using Pfizer, but if we wait a few more weeks why are the modellers all still predicting a big exit wave??

ILookAtTheFloor · 12/06/2021 18:02

Yes there was always an exit wave predicted. In fact, if we look at the Sage models from February that informed the road map, hospital admissions are tracking UNDER what the most optimistic scenario was at that point.

LivinLaVidaLoki · 13/06/2021 09:27

In other good news, Greece have been open to tourists (Dutch and I think German too) since mid May. Yet their infections are still falling. So surely the safety protocols they have in place there are working? Good news for them.

Bordois · 13/06/2021 09:38

@ILookAtTheFloor

Yes there was always an exit wave predicted. In fact, if we look at the Sage models from February that informed the road map, hospital admissions are tracking UNDER what the most optimistic scenario was at that point.
Yes, I've highlighted the most optimistic and we are currently less than half of that estimate.
Good News - Thread 13. 40/30s and onwards to the roaring 20s.
Bordois · 13/06/2021 09:45

@fadingfast

What I don’t understand is why there seems to be this assumption that there will be an enormous exit wave one way or another, and even if we delay step 4 by a few weeks, it is just delaying the inevitable. But I don’t recall that happening in Israel when they opened up? Ok I know that Delta changes things a lot, and maybe they had the advantage of only using Pfizer, but if we wait a few more weeks why are the modellers all still predicting a big exit wave??
Israel did have a bump up in cases mid-march when they eased restrictions.

I think with delta in the mix it does make sense to be a bit more cautious, im not sure a whole month is needed though.

Good News - Thread 13. 40/30s and onwards to the roaring 20s.
Sunshinegirl82 · 13/06/2021 10:30

I'm hopeful a whole month is overly cautious but I can see the logic in announcing a 4 week delay and that (hopefully!) being it rather than announcing a 2 week delay and then extending again.

TheChineseChicken · 13/06/2021 21:14

Just read a very un-good-newsy article and need a bit of positivity, please! Apparently 30% of deaths from the delta variant have been double vaccinated. Wasn’t that figure only something like 5% before?!

Bordois · 13/06/2021 21:15

Data thread discusses this chicken. Its not bad news!

TheChineseChicken · 13/06/2021 21:18

@Bordois

Data thread discusses this chicken. Its not bad news!
Oh dear, I’ve been avoiding the data thread. I have however looked into it more and when you compare with number / proportion hospitalised it’s clear it’s just because it’s very vulnerable people (that doesn’t make their deaths ok, obviously)
TheChineseChicken · 13/06/2021 21:19

Bloody media spinning stats for headlines

Bordois · 13/06/2021 21:22

Sorry was a bit brief- I'm eating chips whilst browsing 😄

TheChineseChicken · 13/06/2021 21:37

@Bordois

Sorry was a bit brief- I'm eating chips whilst browsing 😄
Ha ha! It’s ok, I wasn’t just having an unnecessary knee jerk reaction and dealt with myself Grin
TheChineseChicken · 13/06/2021 21:38

I was just having..,

Lottie4 · 14/06/2021 15:08

20+ invited here last Thursday. Just opened up to 18+, DD just booked herself in for earliest appointment next week.

ifonly4 · 14/06/2021 15:33

19 year old just booked hers. Apparently all adults in Wales (different region) have now been invited.