Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

It's difficult to say they have it wrong if you measure success of a pandemic response to prevention or postponement of deaths. Hopefully with the vaccine it will turn out to be prevention - with no vaccine it would have turned out to be postponement.

There's about one third of Australians who were born abroad, so as time goes on and families are separated for longer periods of time, they could well find division in the population between those who are adversely affected by long term border closures and those who are not.

At the very least those who are seem keen that the government speed up their vaccine rollout, which has been by most countries standards pretty slow, even before they were hit by supply issues. Steps are being taken to improve this.

As an Australian living in the UK, I would rather be here. My gut feeling is that it will be "over quicker" here and that the response has been more proportional to the threat posed to the average person. Others will feel differently.

I would like to see them get the citizens stranded abroad home, as there are still tens of thousands and they have now petitioned the UN for help. Until the Australian government sorts this issue, I don't think they can truly say they've got it right.

@wintertravel1980

Isolation of infected cases and quarantine at the border are two of the most important factors and our government has failed to implement either of them effectively.

I disagree. It is a simple answer but as it was once said by H. L. Mencken "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong".

Testing, tracing and isolating measures may be a highly effective strategy for countries like Australia and New Zealand but they fail to move the dial in different settings:

www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

Based on this analysis, TTI has only got limited impact on the rate of transmission.

And yet it's the primary measure by which the New Zealand government has protected their people and their economy.

TTI done badly can have very little impact, but done properly...

Here's an example of how important doing quarantine right can be:

A single flight from Delhi to Hong Kong has so far led to 47 imported cases. All were required to do pre-departure testing and all were tested upon arrival. Yet, most of the cases were detected in hotel quarantine (most detected on day 12).

The U.K. would only ask someone on a flight from India to quarantine for 10 days so those day 12 cases would be out and about walking among us.

twitter.com/tripperhead/status/1383769373563752455?s=21

Here's an example of how important doing quarantine right can be

Yes, extended quarantine can prevent some imported cases but it will only delay the problem. For every 12 cases we will inevitably have many more infections coming through freight and our open border with Ireland.

It reminds me of historic attempts to reduce HIV spread by advocating for abstinence. The solution may look great on paper but it is completely ineffective in the real world.

@wintertravel1980

Here's an example of how important doing quarantine right can be

Yes, extended quarantine can prevent some imported cases but it will only delay the problem. For every 12 cases we will inevitably have many more infections coming through freight and our open border with Ireland.

It reminds me of historic attempts to reduce HIV spread by advocating for abstinence. The solution may look great on paper but it is completely ineffective in the real world.

Many of the countries who have handled covid the best have a border with China or rely entirely on imports (Singapore) neither of which seem to have rendered their isolation or quarantine protocols ineffective in the real world.

1. The border with China is closed and heavily guarded.
2. Singapore does not rely on inbound freight like UK does. The problem is not containers and boxes - it is thousands of lorry drivers bringing and transporting imports across the country.

@psychomath

a country with an open border with another country

An extremely politically contentious border at that, in a region that's already seen violence in the last weeks due in part to the potential for disruption due to Brexit. If we closed our borders completely it would only work if we did it in coordination with Ireland and kept travel open between the two countries.

If it were feasible, obviously the best approach anywhere would be a combination of Australian style border restrictions and minimal internal lockdown with UK style vaccine rollout, followed by re-opening the borders once everyone's vaccinated. If you can only pick one, the one that seems best is going to depend heavily on personal circumstances.

Living in NI, I’ve often wondered if any consideration was ever given to the UK and ROI both agreeing to ban all non essential travel from other countries. If this had been done early on, things might have been very different.

What is happening to NZers & Aussies stranded abroad?

Sorry if this is a fail to RTFT. I haven't heard stories of Aussie backpackers living in US jails because they ran out of money & visa but can't be deported home. Is there a "Support our citizens stuck abroad" fund for Aus & NZ? The Aussies & NZers outside their own countries when COVID struck can't all have work permits and bottomless funds to keep themselves in shelter for 12 months. So how are they managing?

Another thing to consider with the border closure issue in the UK is that more than 60% of essential items including food and PPE come in the belly of passenger planes. If they'd had time to plan for an alternative, perhaps they could have done it. But to slam the border shut overnight would have caused a massive knock on effect.

It also would have stranded over 1 million people who would have to have been repatriated with quarantine - a logistical nightmare that is hard to imagine the government even with the help of the UK army, who are amazing, being able to pull off. As previously mentioned Australia didn't really get this right either though I think NZ got their people home.

People also forget the general attitudes at the time. The vast majority of people here, until things really kicked off in Italy, seemed to think it would go away, or at least be able to be solved in such a way that wouldn't seriously impact on our day to day life. If the government had disallowed their 16 year old from coming back from their college ski trip, there would have been riots in the street.

There really wasn't much of a true foresight into how things would end up, right across the political spectrums, intelligence spectrums, culturally...I think here in the west we just didn't really think it would happen to us. Lesson learned!

Living in NI, I’ve often wondered if any consideration was ever given to the UK and ROI both agreeing to ban all non essential travel from other countries. If this had been done early on, things might have been very different.

ROI is getting into all sorts of trouble now, trying to apply hotel quarantine to EU countries. It’s politically very difficult. It would not have been countenanced last March.

10,000 lorries come into the UK each day. Impossible to do here.

All the many countries (it's not just Australia and New Zealand) who restricted their borders still receive food and medical imports. Genuinely essential travel too. It's managed through real quarantine and proper testing, tracking, and isolating.

Do people really prefer our way? Repeated long lockdowns (with the mental and physical health impacts), over 150,000 dead, more than 1 million long term ill, and so many ruined busineses.

Really?? That's preferable to temporary restricted borders?

Personally I'd rather restricted borders but minimal lives lost, no long covid, and domestic freedom. Open bars, shops, pubs, restaurants, domestic tourism, offices, sporting events. Oh, and fully functioning hospital and doctor care (instead of our years long backlog).

There are obviously different ways to get food and medicine, plane or by sea for example. But which countries have comparable road freight to us and have achieved it?

I haven’t googled but someone who is very pro shut borders might know

All the many countries (it's not just Australia and New Zealand) who restricted their borders still receive food and medical imports.

Not via freight and not with 10,000 trucks passing through Dover every day.

It's not just Australia and New Zealand.
South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Isle of Man, the Channel Islands - and many African countries.

It absolutely wasn't too late. Easier if done at the very start but perfectly possible later on. Better late than never, and better than repeating the devastating to economy, lives, and health, mistakes again and again and again.

We had a second chance after the first lockdown. We opened up to relatively low numbers. Instead we did EOTHO and foreign holidays. We had another chance after the most recent lockdown. Again, we got down to low numbers.

It's always going to be better late than never until we have the majority fully vaccinated. Or else we'll keep on risking importing variants of concern.

No one’s actually engaging with the issues caused by Irish border, now are they?

Answers on a postcard.

Short term yes, I am very envious of friends over there. Long term I'm not sure.

@Tealightsandd

It's not just Australia and New Zealand. South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Isle of Man, the Channel Islands - and many African countries.

It absolutely wasn't too late. Easier if done at the very start but perfectly possible later on. Better late than never, and better than repeating the devastating to economy, lives, and health, mistakes again and again and again.

We had a second chance after the first lockdown. We opened up to relatively low numbers. Instead we did EOTHO and foreign holidays. We had another chance after the most recent lockdown. Again, we got down to low numbers.

It's always going to be better late than never until we have the majority fully vaccinated. Or else we'll keep on risking importing variants of concern.

But which of these have comparable road freight?

@wintertravel1980

All the many countries (it's not just Australia and New Zealand) who restricted their borders still receive food and medical imports.

Not via freight and not with 10,000 trucks passing through Dover every day.

Easier to manage cases, test and track (and quarantine where necessary) 10,000 trucks a day without additional unessential travel.

The truckers aren't doing 'home' quarantine - which very often involves people travelling from the airport on public transport.

Where there's a will there's a way. Other various different countries (including those with land borders) proved that.

Of course it's not possible if we take a defeatist attitude and say it isn't possible.

When the alternative is far worse - the ruined businesses, repeated long lockdowns, 100s of 1000s dead, 1 million+ long term ill - you work on finding a way.

@TheKeatingFive

No one’s actually engaging with the issues caused by Irish border, now are they?

Answers on a postcard.

Will await the typical ‘defeatist’ accusation or see if there’s a solution in reply

@Lelophants

Short term yes, I am very envious of friends over there. Long term I'm not sure.

Long term they'll be fully vaccinated (as will everywhere else). They'll also be more treatments available (we've already seen several options discovered and more are being trialled).

So they'll be opening up too vastly reduced so more manageable risks.

Teaslight has already showed their hand as someone who wants international travel to shut down due to climate change. I wouldnt engage with them - they just parrot back the “wouldn’t you rather that than 150k dead?” They never engage with the actual question being asked.