Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

@JassyRadlett me too - longest between visits for the 20 years I’ve lived abroad. I mean, it’s certainly interesting to know that in the 60s and 70s people emigrated with no expectation of remaining in contact, but it’s certainly not the basis on which I moved.

@MarshaBradyo - hello again. Agreed, it didn’t use to be such a crime in Aus to want to travel the world.

I mean, it’s certainly interesting to know that in the 60s and 70s people emigrated with no expectation of remaining in contact, but it’s certainly not the basis on which I moved.

Ditto. If I’d known this then I don’t think I’d have agreed to us living here permanently.

@JassyRadlett exactly. (And to head off the inevitable patronising follow up question of “well why don’t you just move back?” - my husband’s family live in 2 European countries. So if we move back i can see my family but he and my kids lose access to his. We literally cannot win.)

It’s amazing to me that a country like australia with SO MANY migrants has been so cloistered. Sadly I think it just reflects the fact that at lot of them are poor/low socioeconomic status and don’t have a voice in Australian politics - the narrative is “they’re lucky to be here”. I can’t see how else a country where a third of citizens were born abroad and half have a parent or grandparent born abroad aren’t even having a CONVERSATION about the pros and cons of staying shut.

I think a lot of the world has been shocked that the country which was considered in the top 3 of exemplars of pandemic preparedness has had the worst 5 death toll for much of year 1 of the pandemic.

Unfortunately, everyone has learnt the hard way that managing the pandemic is a long term game.

Many countries who were praised for their "swift response" during the first wave (e.g. Eastern Europe) now appear way above the UK in the "excess deaths" table:

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

We were prepared for the wrong pandemic - however we managed to adjust our response and made a number of non-risk free but pragmatic decisions that paid off over time. The decision to maximise the number of partially vaccinated people and delay the second dose was one of those.

We are no longer seeing excess deaths and I am personally hoping the worst is behind us.

it didn't used to be such a crime in Oz to want to travel the world

Young people will be more affected by climate change than previous generations. There's a growing awareness of the need to reduce international travel.

I'm in two minds at this point.....not sure it's a long term strategy I'd be happy with if I lived there given the volume of immigrants and expats with family elsewhere in the world.

I think their strategy works for now... But once they're mainly vaccinated, they will need to have some tolerance for low level Covid infections on the basis that vaccinations substantially reduce severe disease and death.

@Pootle40

I'm in two minds at this point.....not sure it's a long term strategy I'd be happy with if I lived there given the volume of immigrants and expats with family elsewhere in the world.

It never was meant to be a long term strategy. It just brought us time to understand the virus better and develop vaccinations. Once a significant proportion of the country is vaccinated, we can tolerate low level infection, as you won't see that rapid exponential growth of infection.

I lived in oz during 2020 then moved back to europe. It took me 4 months to get covid. I feel f*ing shit and from my perspective now (in bed with a fever) i certainly feel the they got it right.

The level of attention to detail was amazing there. There was a genuine sense that they care about stopping people getting ill. Where i am now is rubbish and a feeling that it's all too much hassle to organise a proper proactive system. Most people will survive and if they don't then people have to die anyway.

I don't really think anyone here is pondering who got it right as the NZ and Aus response has been amazing. I certainly envy and admire it. Just wondering long term about the policies that will emerge long-term and as more countries have widespread Covid than don't.
On another note the UN has questioned the Australian treatment of those stranded abroad. That would have been highly controversial in the UK, Europe and US and rightly so in my view, I hope it's sorted ASAP.
www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/16/un-urges-australia-to-act-quickly-to-bring-stranded-australians-home

@ChocBeforeCock

Time will tell in the long run, but I think they have.

My brother lives there and lives an almost entirely restriction free life. He sent me a picture of him out in a crowded bar with a group of friends. Right now, I’d be there like a shot.

Obviously if they aren’t able to open the borders in the relatively near future, whereas we are by then living restriction free due to a combination of vaccination and natural immunity then maybe we will be in the better position.

We can’t forget though that 130,000 odd people have died from this illness here. I don’t think they’ll have anything like that death rate as they certainly won’t open without vaccines, and even if it does spread they won’t see loss of life like we have.

So while they may have stored up logistical problems for the future, they have avoided colossal loss of life from covid, and avoided inflicting the cruelty of lengthy lockdown on most of the population (I appreciate there was a horrible lockdown in Melbourne).

I should say I don’t think it would have been possible for us to do what they’ve done. But I think it was the right thing for them.

Of course they won't see 150 000 deaths. You fail to understand the difference in population numbers between the UK and Aus/NZ. We have a massive population crammed in a tiny island that is the centre of international business and travel. Whereas they are spread over a huge island in the arse end of nowhere with sheep and a few dingos

@marilenagrace

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

No, its just delaying the inevitable.

@SelkieQualia but it is now a long term strategy, even if it wasn't meant to be. Borders have been closed for over a year, the vaccine program isn't going well with the already slow targets being scrapped so the population probably won't be vaccinated until part way through next year, and Morrison saying there's no rush to open borders and ti won't be any time soon. I'd count 2 years + as long term.

Of course they won't see 150 000 deaths. You fail to understand the difference in population numbers between the UK and Aus/NZ. We have a massive population crammed in a tiny island that is the centre of international business and travel. Whereas they are spread over a huge island in the arse end of nowhere with sheep and a few dingos

I’m not sure where you got the impression I don’t understand about the population scarcity in much of Australia.

I assume you understand that parts of it, like Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane have more than a few sheep and dingoes living there.

More to the point I assume you read the part where i said what was possible for them would not have been possible for us, thereby acknowledging the differences between there and the UK when it comes to covid.

The point stands that by the time covid moves through their community, if that is to happen, it will move through a vaccinated population, so it will move slower and kill fewer people. In the UK, there was extensive community spread through an unvaccinated population. I’m sure you can appreciate the difference, and that is the point I’m making.

You’re right Covid spreading through vaccinated population is different but let’s not forget trials in countries to get the vaccines to make it possible, also initial development and treatments.

The long term solutions that will get us all out of this are worth applauding imo, not just keeping it out when it hits somewhere later.

@MarshaBradyo

You’re right Covid spreading through vaccinated population is different but let’s not forget trials in countries to get the vaccines to make it possible, also initial development and treatments.

The long term solutions that will get us all out of this are worth applauding imo, not just keeping it out when it hits somewhere later.

I agree with that. I’m simply saying that what they did was right for them.

Choc they did. I don’t disagree at all. I find it a bit unfair when all the language is amazing, great job etc when really the very hard and incredible part (vaccines) get underplayed. Not by you at all but just generally on here.

Totally - as it happens the vaccines are safe, but the volunteers all took that risk. And it was that risk which will enable Aus/NZ to open up, that will hopefully get the whole world out of this, and I definitely haven’t lost sight of that. We owe the volunteers a debt of gratitude beyond what I can express.

I lived in oz during 2020 then moved back to europe. It took me 4 months to get covid. I feel f*ing shit and from my perspective now (in bed with a fever) i certainly feel the they got it right

a huge number of us have been in Europe throughout and not caught covid (as far as we know).

Anyway Aus and NZ bet on a fast vaccine, which has happened. If we'd not had a vaccine, things would have been very different, we couldn't have stayed locked down with borders closed forever.

I assume you understand that parts of it, like Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane have more than a few sheep and dingoes living there.

And that overall, the Australian population is more urbanised than the UK’s.

I think it's clear that NZ "wins" Year 1 of covid by any measure, and I expect them to be in the same position at the end of Year 2.

After 15 months it's clear to me that government is the most important factor in covid response and I have less faith in Australia's.

Our own governments's covid response gets worse not better so I no longer have any hope that covid will be to any degree "over" by next spring.

(Isolation of infected cases and quarantine at the border are two of the most important factors and our government has failed to implement either of them effectively. After 15 months, and 150,000 dead, I don't believe they will.

I find the winning thing a bit silly but it’s the vaccines that will enable everyone to move on.

Isolation of infected cases and quarantine at the border are two of the most important factors and our government has failed to implement either of them effectively.

I disagree. It is a simple answer but as it was once said by H. L. Mencken "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong".

Testing, tracing and isolating measures may be a highly effective strategy for countries like Australia and New Zealand but they fail to move the dial in different settings:

www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

Based on this analysis, TTI has only got limited impact on the rate of transmission.

I’m glad to be in Australia just now it’s allowed my children to live life largely unaffected by covid. I’m worried that going forward that the government don’t have a strategy with opening the borders, or if they do, it must be pretty crap as they aren’t sharing it.

As an immigrant in Australia I do worry about when I can get back to visit my extended family.

I also think it’s worth posting this population density map ( from2016 but won’t be too different 5 years on).