Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

Another hotel quarantine security guard has tested positive in Western Australia. 2 members of his household also positive. Decision on another lockdown tomorrow.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-for-children-june-b1840504.html

Relatively rare but it's definitely worth getting children vaccinated. Why take chances with their long term health.

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/02/long-covid-uk-children-date-cause-concern-scientists-say

@Tealightsandd - it's no different than our own UK citizens, just a few more of them. The UK is well used to managing covid by now and the Indian strains do not appear to have vaccine escape (at least for Astrazeneca, which 2/3 of those vaccinated have had). The risks in the UK are accepted because we accept we cannot ever be zero covid and we know we still have 2000-4000 cases per day in any event. I don't think we should leave Australian citizens to struggle because of this decision by their government, helping them now would not be forgotten and would not add extra strain to the UK.

@MRex
I definitely think it could work. We obviously can't add any more risk to bug cities - already hard hit and more vulnerable due to high density population.

However, we could, yes, use quarantine coaches (like we originally did when evacuating from Wuhan). We have plenty of rural hotels that would be suitable.

Not that I consider 150,000 dead and over 1 million long Covid, managing Covid well.
That's good news about the vaccines! Do you have a link? I've only seen reports on whether Pfizer is effective against the Indian and South African strain. Haven't seen anything on AZ. I know there was concern it may not prevent mild to moderate illness ("moderate" meaning really quite ill), which means potential long Covid.

I haven't seen anything about Pfizer being tested on the Indian strain, did it work?

Covishield is Oxford Astrazeneca, Covaxin is Bharat Biotech: m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/covishield-covaxin-protect-indian-strain-covid-19-preliminary/1/437728.html. The preliminary results are backed up by ICMR confirming in the real world there have been very few infections for vaccinated people in India (post initial weeks), www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-very-few-post-vaccine-infections-says-icmr/article34378445.ece/amp/.

Not that I consider 150,000 dead and over 1 million long Covid, managing Covid well.

You know this figure isn’t true. Why do you keep using it?

(The long Covid figure I mean. You’ve had explained to you what that figure covers and that the ONS does not equate it to the very serious condition of long Covid.)

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/long-covid-symptoms-uk-ons-b1825434.html

You've had it explained to you that these figures and people's experiences of long Covid are what's happening so far.

Obviously - due to the NHS having been too busy dealing with immediate Covid cases (and other emergencies) - many long Covid sufferers won't have had access to scans - to check for the heart, lung, and other damage seen in the few who have managed to be scanned.

And quite frankly, 150,000 dead, even without long Covid, is quite enough to say that the UK really hasn't managed Covid well.

And quite frankly, 150,000 dead, even without long Covid, is quite enough to say that the UK really hasn't managed Covid well.

I agree with that. Just not with the continued misinformation on long Covid. Why do you do that?

The "well managed" UK responses has led to the NHS having a massive backlog - with patients (Long Covid sufferers included) facing delays of up to 5 years for medical care and treatment.

You've had it explained to you that these figures and people's experiences of long Covid are what's happening so far.

No, these figures are not linked to people’s experiences of long Covid so far. You know that, and yet you keep conflating the two.

That ONS figure is of people who still report a Covid symptom more than four weeks after the assumed date of infection.

In a virus with a longish incubation period. God, I had a cough for a couple of months after I had pneumonia. I did not have long pneumonia. I was recovering from a serious illness and it took time.

There are large numbers who have symptoms well beyond that but it is not 1.1 million.

There is value in looking at primary sources rather than click bait headlines.

@JassyRadlett

And quite frankly, 150,000 dead, even without long Covid, is quite enough to say that the UK really hasn't managed Covid well.

I agree with that. Just not with the continued misinformation on long Covid. Why do you do that?

Where's the misinformation? It's hugely irresponsible to dismiss or downplay the potential risks. It's also offensive to the people suffering from long Covid. A group of doctors actually wrote to the BMJ describing their personal experiences of it - and noted one of the issues was their struggle to get taken seriously by their fellow doctors.

Why is Matt Hancock, Health Secretary, concerned about it?

The NHS wouldn't be setting up specialist long Covid clinics across the UK for a mild issue that affects only very small numbers.

@Tealightsandd - if you're directing that at me, you might like to reread what I wrote "The UK is well used to managing covid by now"; i.e. the UK has significant experience in genome testing and hospital care, as well as testing for any significant local outbreaks. I did not say "well managed response since covid started with no errors made".

Sorry @MRex I misinterpreted your post.

Where's the misinformation? It's hugely irresponsible to dismiss or downplay the potential risks. It's also offensive to the people suffering from long Covid. A group of doctors actually wrote to the BMJ describing their personal experiences of it - and noted one of the issues was their struggle to get taken seriously by their fellow doctors.

I’m not downplaying it, as you’ll note from my posts above and from the previous exchanges we’ve had where you’ve claimed I denied its existence and haven’t been able to back it up.

However by conflating the two statistics you and others present a massive gift to those who would like to deny or downplay it. You enable them to say that hey, it’s not a big deal, people are overstating the size of the problem, they’re even counting people who feel tired or have a cough a couple of weeks after testing positive!

There are really large numbers affected here. But by giving in to the temptation to sensationalise you do them a disservice.I just don’t understand why you do it. Why present a gift to Laurence Fox and his ilk?

No problem .

I've no idea how many are suffering from long covid, nobody does and ONS is very much an initial projection. There are clearly a large number, but they will initially be separated into the specialisms depending on whether they have developed clots, heart issues, kidney issues, diabetes, neurological (memory, sleep, depression), recurrent symptoms that need lots more analysis (fatigue, headaches, nausea, anosmia, cough, joint pains etc) or simple to resolve severe vitamin and mineral deficiencies (anemia etc). Then there's PTSD and physical recovery for the ICU patients.
This site suggests they expect most long covid to get better within 6 months, hopefully the ONS will update percentages over time (or PHE): www.yourcovidrecovery.nhs.uk/your-road-to-recovery/when-do-i-need-to-seek-help/.
ICU usually a year it says, though a friend who was in ICU for something else had been told 2 years, especially anyone on an invasive ventilator.

I wonder, if one of the problems is (not necessarily on this thread) people's understanding of symptoms like fatigue.

Fatigue is often interpreted as feeling a bit tired. When actually the fatigue is often debilitating. Exhaustion, unable to walk more than 10 minutes, struggling to get out of bed even.

The government is clearly concerned enough to be setting up all the specialist long Covid clinics across the country.

The cases of confirmed heart, lung, or other damage... we can't know how many sufferers actually have this damage - because many (most?) haven't had the chance to access scans yet.

I get what you're saying, and will take it on board (perhaps the Independent needs to too). I still, personally believe it's a dangerous gamble to ignore the potential risks.

Thanks for the link @MRex

I don't want to sensationalise. I simply find it concerning that the potential risks of long Covid might be downplayed (not necessarily on this thread).

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00123-5/

I know this is just one person's story (a Dublin nurse in her 20s) but her struggle to get her symptoms taken seriously is very relevant. She had to pay privately for scans. I worry that people's symptoms are being dismissed.

I don't think people should panic, but I do think it's a reason to not get complacent until majority of population are vaccinated.

I get what you're saying, and will take it on board (perhaps the Independent needs to too). I still, personally believe it's a dangerous gamble to ignore the potential risks.

I certainly haven’t suggested they should be ignored. I’ve repeatedly said it’s a huge issue and haven’t seen anyone recently on this thread say otherwise, but I may have missed it.

Just suggest using the actual ONS figures rather than inflated ones - the actual numbers are dramatic and shocking enough without inflating them with the ‘4 weeks post infection’ figures.

I get what you’re saying about fatigue (I’ve had utterly crushing post-viral fatigue) but i think that argument undermines the ONS figures as much as it supports it because the ONS stats are based on self-reported symptoms which can, as you point out, vary based on an individual’s understanding of a term.

It’s really worth reading the primary reports on this.

I have said before though I think it is a longer running issue of downplaying post viral issues at play - I had swine flu and I still suffer some of the consequences now but nothing that majorly impacts me on a day to day basis.

I think JessyRadlett has a point saying it is 1 million actually is counter intuitive because it takes the focus away from the smaller group of people who are still suffering 6 months later. Viruses can be awful and do take time to recover from and I think stating it like that takes it away from those like the Nurse who are really struggling longer term.

It would be helpful to get some statistical research from the NHS that identifies long covid cases by severity and time, but because it's across so many disciplines and probably not individually coded, I'm not sure how possible that would be. The numbers feel to be likely to be high because of people I know who had covid there's quite a high number who have some on going issues. I do think it's important to inform people's vaccination decisions, but the data isn't in my opinion good enough to be used to do that clearly and honestly.