Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

[quote ButtonMoony]@carrieantoinette

Jersey
Guernsey
Isle of Man

There are 3 within a couple of hundred miles of london[/quote]
I still don't know of any countries then.

Yeah I know we went hard on the testing and quarantining (although our quarantines are not nearly as strict as UK quarantines, for example you can go out as much and as far as you like as long as you stay outdoors). We are not the only country who tests a lot - we are not even among the countries who test the MOST anymore (less than the UK even), so why is Iceland an 'elimination country' but others that test a lot coupled with pretty relaxed restrictions aren't?

I'm saying if the graph comparing elimination to mitigation was done honestly it would probably pretty much be a graph comparing Aus and NZ to the rest of the world, which doesn't really tell us anything about whether this would have been a viable strategy for anywhere else or much about anything at all really.

I still don't know of any countries then.

But OK, if you consider the red countries on that graph to be 'gold standard', I'm telling you now that Iceland has been opening up even more to non-essential international travel and has no quarantine requirements for those who are vaccinated or previously infected. Restrictions have been relaxed as rates fall (not after all cases are eliminated). We also opened up borders as much as possible last summer, including completely as normal, no testing no quarantine no nothing, for people coming from Denmark and Germany and a few other countries. There is a certain amount of community transmission going on right now but no 'maximum action' to stop it completely. Here we are in an 'ongoing pandemic' and I can name a country that you presented there as gold-standard that is moving further and further away from anything that could possible be considered an elimination strategy.

Just say you're only talking about Australia and NZ if that's what you mean.

Just to add - there are a lot of people in Iceland who WANT us to go down the NZ-style elimination strategy road and as an island that is not at all a global travel hub it would probably be possible. I am personally extremely glad we haven't and hope that it never ever comes to that, for many reasons similar to those discussed on this thread about Australia and NZ (I have close family in the UK).

There was an attempt to introduce enforced hotel quarantine recently and it was declared illegal. They are trying again and I hope it fails again. I do not believe they would EVER get away with the kind of thing Australia has been doing to place barriers in the way of their own citizens returning home, but honestly I don't think it would ever even be considered desirable except by the most hardline fanatics.

Elections are coming up later this year and genuinely if all this talk hasn't subsided by that point (which I believe it will as the vaccination programme advances) it will be the key issue for me as a voter. I will vote for the Independence Party and I never thought I'd say that.

did you have mass school closures for any length of time? Could you meet inside with family?

Yes, we had one school closure, for about.... 10 weeks in the spring of 2020, I think. The schools made up for it by cutting the summer vacation, trimming other vacation days and cutting out non-core stuff like sports festival practice time, so I think the kids are back on track--my impression only. Of course, attitudes towards education are different here.

No rules about not meeting people indoors, just "advice." We had the "three Cs"avoid poorly ventilated indoor spaces with lots of people. And vague "stay home" advice. No legal mandate. Japan can't do all that much (compared to places like China and HK) to force people to follow infection control rules, partly because in the 20th century Japan's nationalistic regime imposed some very cruel restrictions on people with leprosy, and there was a massive legal case brought by victims' families and a big backlash. Remember the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship back in spring 2020? People were just getting off the ship and wandering back into Japanese society-legally, it was kind of hard to stop them.

Ventilation was properly understood here from early on, and I think this was important---that and the near-universal masking. Also, Japan has been very very slow to get rid of smoking in restaurants and bars, so these places are all kitted out with heavy duty ventilation
systems and staff are in the habit of keeping rooms well aired. I suspect this also helped.

@Tealightsandd

It's an absolutely awful decision to have to make. I don't know if it's the answer. Is it supported by the majority in Australia?

I would have hoped quarantine was a possible option, but perhaps too much logistically? Sheer numbers? I assume the Australian authorities have said why not quarantine instead?

I do know, however, that "let the bodies pile up" is very much lacking in compassion.

Because the number of positive cases coming in were starting to fill up the available covid health resources. We still have positive cases coming from other countries too that can/do require health assistance. Where as previously there have been a couple of positives/planeload the number of positives coming from India were increasing quickly very quickly. It's a temporary measure at the moment and must be heartbreaking for those who get stuck.

@Quartz2208

I havent felt terrified since the beginning and it actually arrived - seeing it in China and Italy and the wave approaching back in FEb/March 2020 was the worst and most terrifying time of all. Once it arrived it kind of went and you just dealt with it at each stage.

It is based on daily reality. People in NZ have eyes and ears. They see and hear what's happening in countries who didn't take measures or enough measures to contain it.

and that is exactly what I am saying they are seeing the absolute worst parts of it and that fear of what happens if it arrives to have lived with it for over a year must be tough.

Because actually now here in our daily reality is actually ok, indeed I am quite full of hope.

It's not so much terrifying or the fear of contracting it as it is just plain exhausting. I ( and my friends, colleagues etc) am very realistic that our current risk is incredibly low and it would have to be real bad luck to get it. What I do find frustrating is the constant need for back up plans or alternatives. We have a conference going ahead tomorrow that I won't know if 1/4 will be attending due to potential border issues or lockdowns. But I still prefer this approach.

In Aus.
Just wish our totally incompetent government could roll the vaccine out properly and quickly so borders can be opened to our citizens.
Very, very jealous of the number of vaccinated people in the UK.

Thanks @Kokeshi123 for taking the time to answer all the questions on Japan!

So just 10 weeks of school closures and advice on indoor meeting. I’m sure all the ventilation measures helped and the population over there has experience with SARS so will be better at mask wearing, hand washing etc. More sensible about following advice?

But still, it’s surprising you weren’t too badly affected out there? So shops, restaurants etc could stay open and you could have small gatherings indoor with family throughout.

How much can just vaccinations stop it though - I guess we dont know.

You cant necessarily compare how vaccinations are working here to how they will work in Australia because alongside vaccinations there is a certain amount of natural immunity. At some point most of us in the UK have had contact with someone who is positive (and that doesnt mean getting it DH and DS did DD and I didnt - though we might have done in March when they didnt)

Exactly. The success of our vaccination program is coupled with a lot of natural immunity through exposure to the virus. We weren’t even testing back in April last year. And there will have been many, many asymptomatic cases.

Australia may struggle to get to herd immunity through vaccines alone. So what’s the plan then? Constant lockdowns and borders closed for a very long time?

Australia may struggle to get to herd immunity through vaccines alone.

Vaccines is actually the quickest way to obtain herd immunity against a disease. As an anecdote, last year Australians were over 70% vaccinated against flu when usually is about 30%. We literally had no flu season and a few hundred deaths were prevented.

Covid virus works the same. We can get herd immunity by letting the virus rip through the community, and look what's happening now in India or Brazil, or we can lockdown and vaccinate.

Australia is a few months behind the US, UK and Europe with vaccination due to supplies. By early next year we'll be in the same position as you guys are and able to open borders.

That is, unless emerging variants in India don't make all existing vaccines ineffective.

Australia is a few months behind the US, UK and Europe with vaccination due to supplies. By early next year we'll be in the same position as you guys are and able to open borders.

I’m not sure what Australia intend to do about the under 16s. They won’t be immunised in that time frame.

@TheKeatingFive

Australia is a few months behind the US, UK and Europe with vaccination due to supplies. By early next year we'll be in the same position as you guys are and able to open borders.

I’m not sure what Australia intend to do about the under 16s. They won’t be immunised in that time frame.

Not here in the UK either....

If the reduction in transmission from vaccination is sufficient (and it seems like it is), then it may not be necessary for them to vaccinate the children before reopening.

@Kokeshi123
Obviously everyone's experience is different but my friend's family (she's half Japanese) say although some things, i.e. social distancing and self isolating when necessary, weren't mandatory, it wasn't necessary - because the majority of Japanese people voluntarily do it. It's social pressure to be civic minded. Her family are not in Tokyo and perhaps things are slightly different there but they seem to think it's a widespread behaviour in Japan.

Given schools here I would be surprised if most under 18s hadnt come into contact with it at some point which helps.

the current variants dont make vaccines ineffective as much as less effective - which is where the natural immunity picked up helps.

I am not saying vaccines arent the quickest way - of course they are but how much quicker we are finding it because of natural immunity I think is a point worth raising.

Why on earth Australian cricketters were in India though and now not allowed back

Not here in the UK either.

No, but there’s no expectation to maintain zero Covid in the U.K. and more natural immunity.

I just don’t know how it’s going to fly in zero Covid countries. Open up after the adult population has been vaxxed and it will spread among school children. Will that be acceptable to the population?

Or will it be that no proper opening up can happen until everyone has had the shot, which will be late 2022 I expect.

@TheKeatingFive

Not here in the UK either.

No, but there’s no expectation to maintain zero Covid in the U.K. and more natural immunity.

I just don’t know how it’s going to fly in zero Covid countries. Open up after the adult population has been vaxxed and it will spread among school children. Will that be acceptable to the population?

Or will it be that no proper opening up can happen until everyone has had the shot, which will be late 2022 I expect.

Most of the top epidemiologists have already stated that it's going to be practically impossible to maintain a safe level of covid transmission - if it is in the community and circulating then we have to live with tests, facemasks and restrictions forever more, or risk a huge surge of vaccine resistant strains.

So given the success of the vaccines in defeating transmission, I'm pretty certain that the UK HAS moved to a zero covid ambition now - won't be advertised of course because it cannot be guaranteed.

Side note - natural immunity in the UK plays a minor role - barely 15% of the population have had the virus.

Finally, in a nation in which the entire adult population is vaccinated, the virus is highly unlikely to "spread among school children". Of course that could change if a new variant emerges, but then it has to actually get into the country in the first place and I'm certain that border checks will continue for years. The big difference is that currently if a case gets through, entire cities go into lockdown to stop it before it can spread. Once the population is vaccinated, this will almost certainly not be necessary.

I'm pretty certain that the UK HAS moved to a zero covid ambition now - won't be advertised of course because it cannot be guaranteed.

I disagree, but it’s not really relevant to this point.

There’s nothing riding on it. They don’t need it to open up.

Finally, in a nation in which the entire adult population is vaccinated, the virus is highly unlikely to "spread among school children".

I’ve absolutely no idea where you’re getting that from. Are you saying it can’t spread from incomers to children? That seems bizarrely optimistic to me.

The fundamental question is whether the people of Aus will be happy to open up fully with all their under 16s unvaxxed and vulnerable to infection. That will determine if they’ll be about six months behind the UK or several years.

I presume Australians aren't allowed to go and quarantine in New Zealand either? If not then the UK could perhaps open up enough to allow Australian citizens in India to come and do their quarantine in hotels here. Australians are friends to the UK, and even if it looks like their government has gone much too far on this one, it would be good to help them find a solution. There could be an arrangement with the Australian government perhaps for them to even do 3 weeks with any hospital costs covered, and then fly straight home or stay in the UK until restrictions change.

UK could perhaps open up enough to allow Australian citizens in India to come and do their quarantine in hotels here. Australians are friends to the UK, and even if it looks like their government has gone much too far on this one, it would be good to help them find a solution.

The solution is for Australia to change its appalling attitude to human rights, not expect another country to sort out its issues. There is absolutely no reason why returning Australians cannot quarantine in Australia.

@MRex

I presume Australians aren't allowed to go and quarantine in New Zealand either? If not then the UK could perhaps open up enough to allow Australian citizens in India to come and do their quarantine in hotels here. Australians are friends to the UK, and even if it looks like their government has gone much too far on this one, it would be good to help them find a solution. There could be an arrangement with the Australian government perhaps for them to even do 3 weeks with any hospital costs covered, and then fly straight home or stay in the UK until restrictions change.

If it was in the rural countyside (with quarantine coaches straight from the airport), maybe it could work. Far too dangerous to do it in a densely populated city.

@TheKeatingFive

I'm pretty certain that the UK HAS moved to a zero covid ambition now - won't be advertised of course because it cannot be guaranteed.

I disagree, but it’s not really relevant to this point.

There’s nothing riding on it. They don’t need it to open up.

Finally, in a nation in which the entire adult population is vaccinated, the virus is highly unlikely to "spread among school children".

I’ve absolutely no idea where you’re getting that from. Are you saying it can’t spread from incomers to children? That seems bizarrely optimistic to me.

The fundamental question is whether the people of Aus will be happy to open up fully with all their under 16s unvaxxed and vulnerable to infection. That will determine if they’ll be about six months behind the UK or several years.

They don’t need it to open up

If by "it" you mean zero cases, the no - they don't, but that's not what I wrote. You fail to see the difference between a zero covid ambition and having zero cases of covid.

If R goes over 1 and stays there, then inevitably, eventually case numbers become enormous again. Zero covid ambition means KEEPING R below 1.

Why do you think we're still in a period of restrictions when case numbers are down to the levels of last summer and so many have been vaccinated?

Are you saying it can’t spread from incomers to children?

I didn't say children couldn't get infected - I said it wouldn't spread amongst them. The absolute worst case scenario would be an incoming infected traveller, entering a school and doing a super-spreader event, but then with adult herd immunity, those infections aren't going to escalate amongst the adults and from there to other schools and children. Any outbreak would be limited, localised and brief.

It's an awful decision to have to make but if you want to say human rights, it is a human rights deciding of sorts. They want to prevent the reason why people want to leave India happening in Australia. They're protecting the human rights of Australians in Australia, particularly the elderly and vulnerable - including the indigenous population.

*decision

Any outbreak would be limited, localised and brief.

Perhaps, but this is still children being put at risk who previously were being ‘kept safe’. I just wonder how palatable that will be politically.

The UK’s ambitions, zero Covid or otherwise aren’t relevant as I’ve said. The U.K. has made its peace with spread among school kids. The question I have is, can Australia get there mentally in the next few months?