Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

I think places with almost zero covid - Singapore, Aus, nz have far better infrastructure to cope with variants (the same infrastructure that stamps out the outbreaks).

I’m impressed by UK’s genetic surveillance - testing large numbers of samples to identify variants. However, I don’t think it is coupled with effective measures to curb the variants. I think detection on any positive tests (even if you don’t know the variant type), testing and isolation of contacts etc is probably going to be better in zero covid places.

UK’s vaccination is going well, but we need to hope that variants don’t enter and escape immunity.

@Helpmebenicer

CarrieAntoinette

Blimey, how do you live with that level of negativity in your head? Honestly I think you need to just keep coming back to vaccines and try not to gallop ahead

"Negativity" was also the accusation levelled at me last year when I suggested that we would still be battling covid this year too.

As I've said, my most optimistic outcomes are vaccine dependent, but vaccines don't magically fix everything, and certainly not by June 21st.

@Quartz2208

We arent going to eradicate Covid in the next few years we simply arent. So yes we need to prepare for an endemic and we need to prepare for I think around the 15,000-20,000 mark at least with cases in the autumn/winter we just do.

And vaccines will help with that.

But there will be clusters going forward. Zero Covid worked last year and for this year but it is how to manage going forward they need to work out

Eliminating it in the U.K. is entirely possible.

Eradication isn't necessary.

Polio isn't eradicated, but it's only a problem for the two countries on earth where it was allowed to become endemic:Afghanistan and Pakistan.

We aren't going to eradicate Covid in the next few years we simply arent

Not with that attitude, no.

We don’t need to magically fix everything. We need to be in a situation where Covid doesn’t cause hospitalisation and death for most people. We are practically there.

Australia/NZ are not so their strategy will be different (though unclear long term what that is...)

Looking outside of Australia (and New Zealand).

Japan put in place strict border restrictions and quarantine.

Japan has a (densely housed) population of approx 126 million.

Japan's total Covid deaths: just over 10,000.

UK population of approx 68 million.
Total Covid deaths of over 150,000

London alone has suffered more deaths than the whole of Japan.

Japan has, like Australia and New Zealand, had localised short lockdowns from time to time to quickly contain any outbreaks. That aside, life is largely normal.

If we’re going to be pedantic, then yes COVID is going to be here for years: plural.

But it’s not going to be here for ‘years’ in the doomsday way some are predicting on this thread. Because, as humans, we manage to get these things under control.

Pipe dream, of course, but if every county had done a hard (as in, genuine) lockdown for 4-6 weeks back in March/April last year, things would be looking very different for the planet now.

Obviously, that wasn’t possible. And the countries that have been living with no community transmission for months and months now, are - and will always continue to be - at the mercy of countries that don’t have it under control.

Our vaccine roll-out (NZ) may be relatively slow compared with other countries, but it’s hard to get worked up about it, as even unvaccinated, we are living much more normal lives that counties with swift roll-outs. And we’ll be vaccinated by the end of the year.

Plus - we are not stagnating. The trans-Tasman bubble has opened, and we’re going to hear about the Pacific Islands next month, May.

Things are changing and improving, however tempting it is for some to reiterate that there’s No Long-Term Plan, etc, etc...

The Australian economy depends on migration to drive up house prices.

I cant speak for Australia, but NZ house prices are rocketing atm.

If you'd rather spend three years of covid going in and out of lockdown and watching "the bodies pile up in their thousands" then come to the U.K.

I'd cheerfully swap with you.

I’m in the U.K.

You must have missed the part of my post where I talked about it the need for a clear long term objective and a road map for getting there.

The current U.K. roadmap takes us out of the winter lockdown. It does not set out a long term goal for Covid management policy in the U.K. and neither is a roadmap for reaching that (nonexistent) goal.

It’s a gap for both countries, as I’ve repeatedly said. Although the U.K. has been more open about it’s likely vague landing space than Australia.

@Mandalay246 likewise here in Aus. Prices skyrocketing in most places. Only exceptions seem to be the studio/1-bed apartments in some CBD's that are not rising as fast as everything else.

@PrincessNutNuts

Whilst the covid pandemic is growing globally, and providing plenty of cautionary tales about the costs of not managing covid properly, any country at zero would be extremely foolish to give that up.*

That is exactly what places are doing because covid free isn't viable anymore. The negatives to a vaccinated population outweigh the positives.

Where I live has been largely covid free. We currently have no restrictions or masks.

We are opening up again to travellers with no isolation from the UK over the next few weeks. Having focused for over a year on keeping cases out enough people are jabbed that cases coming in shouldn't be a big issue. Its a major shift of mindset and not going down well with everyone butte majority want to be able to travel again.

[quote ButtonMoony]@PrincessNutNuts

Whilst the covid pandemic is growing globally, and providing plenty of cautionary tales about the costs of not managing covid properly, any country at zero would be extremely foolish to give that up.*

That is exactly what places are doing because covid free isn't viable anymore. The negatives to a vaccinated population outweigh the positives.

Where I live has been largely covid free. We currently have no restrictions or masks.

We are opening up again to travellers with no isolation from the UK over the next few weeks. Having focused for over a year on keeping cases out enough people are jabbed that cases coming in shouldn't be a big issue. Its a major shift of mindset and not going down well with everyone butte majority want to be able to travel again.[/quote]
Zero covid isn't viable in what way?

@CarrieAntoinette in any way if you want to live in a world where people can travel freely and without isolation periods - which most people do.

It is not viable to balance peoples need to travel and see loved ones with keeping covid out of a population in the medium to long term. Hence why most places that did manage it in the short term while vaccines were developed and administered are now starting to move to mitigation and balance the ever decreasing COVID risk with giving people their lives back.

Japan put in place strict border restrictions and quarantine.

Not really. Japan was quite slow to put border controls in place (Abe was keener to support business travel) and quarantining right now is in people's homes (with no checkup), not in a hotel.

Japan has, like Australia and New Zealand, had localised short lockdowns from time to time to quickly contain any outbreaks. That aside, life is largely normal.

Nope. Japanese authorities do not have the legal mandate to impose lockdowns. We have had three States of Emergency (we are currently on the third one), but the Powers That Be can do no more than close public facilities like public schools and try to persuade other businesses to close. They cannot tell anyone to stay at home, only "ask/request."

Even school closures only occurred during the first SoE, for about six weeks. This SoE involves... nothing as far as I can see. Oh, they stopped restaurants serving alcohol or something.

Deaths have been low here, but it's a perfect example of how COVID involves a lot of randomness and a lot of factors that aren't actually very clear. Japan really has not done a very good job at all of controlling COVID and we've never been close to being COVID free-deaths appear to be low due to some mysterious Factor X and nobody knows what it is.

It's nothing like Oz or NZ here. Very different approach. I'm quite glad, to be honest, as if we really were Zero COVID with NZ-style border controls, the already tepid vaccine rollout would be even slower and Japan would probably be panicking about the idea of letting the Dirty Foreign Disease into its borders and would be keeping the borders slammed shut for years on end, and I want to go home and see my family.

As it is, we lucked out and had few deaths in spite of fairly tepid measures.

@Kokeshi123 that’s really interesting.

I was reading somewhere there is a theory that because of SARS some populations in Asia may already have a bit of natural immunity to Covid. As they are similar coronaviruses. T-cell immunity. This may have helped (plus other measures) with spread not getting out of control.

Yes, I have also heard that floated as a possibility. Some random cold coronavirus that spread in the previous year and variolated much of the population? Wouldn't surprise me.

twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1387828825061564422
This thread was extremely interesting (and it also mentions Japan, stating correctly that Japan never went for an elimination policy).

The thread is very interesting in setting out the challenges in trying to do an elimination policy in the UK.

Basically, ALL the elimination countries have faced the issue of small numbers of cases slipping through the net---yes, even Hong Kong with its ferocious 21-day hotel quarantine rules.

Despite pre-flight screening and quarantine Australia and New Zealand have failure rate of 4.8 per 100k travellers. SARS-COV-2 cases slip through!

Snap lockdowns then have to be done in order to stamp out these "leaked" cases before they spread. If the number of leaks is very small, this is doable, hence the success of Oz, NZ and some other countries.

With the UK, the issue of the Irish border and lorry freight would result in a much higher number of cases slipping through the net, resulting in snap lockdown after snap lockdown, removing the advantages of the elimination strategy.

I think the Zero Covid strategy is great for those countries that can do this. Discussions like this make me increasingly skeptical of the idea that this could feasibly have been done in the UK.

That's interesting @Kokeshi123. Do you know what the seropositivity rates are in Japan? And has anyone looked at cross-immunity from SARS1?

Sorry @Kokeshi123, I’m another with a question I’m afraid!

I read that Japan has a well established track and trace programme for TB and this was part of their success with covid. Is this something that is evident to you and do you think it contributed to Japan’s apparent success so far?

(Maybe you need to do an ask me anything thread )

www.mofa.go.jp/ca/fna/page4e_001053.html

Border restrictions and real quarantine in Japan. Perhaps to someone in Japan it seems relatively slack.... goodness only knows what they'd make of the UK!

For the time being, foreign nationals who have stayed in any of the following 152 countries/regions within 14 days prior to the application for landing are denied to enter Japan in pursuant to the Article 5, paragraph (1), item (xiv) of Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act, unless special exceptional circumstances are found. Note that foreigners (from the countries and regions where the entry bans do not apply) are not denied to enter Japan even when they arrive in Japan via those countries or regions, which are subject to denial of permission to entry, for refueling or transit purpose. Those who entered those countries or regions will, however, be subject to the entry ban.

edition.cnn.com/travel/amp/japan-travel-covid-19/index.html

Japan has some of the most stringent travel restrictions in the world, with 152 countries on its prohibited list.

Travelers from permitted destinations must undertake a 14-day quarantine, although it is possible to request a PCR test on arrival. A negative result allows you to finish quarantine.

Those traveling under Japan's revised business travel rules will need to provide proof of a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours of departure, signed and stamped by the laboratory where it was taken. While they will not need to self-isolate, they will need to provide details of their movements for the following two weeks and not use public transport

Four prefectures covering Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo will be entering states of emergency from April 25 to May 11, according to Japanese media. During states of emergency, bars and restaurants will close by 8 p.m. and large-scale events are capped at 5,000 people.

While much of Japan remains open for business, cities are far quieter than usual and the government has the right to request the closure of businesses in areas of high transmission. Masks must be worn in public.

Sure, I'd totally agree that the border control policies here are stricter than in the UK (though that's probably not difficult, LOL). My point was, rather, that the policies are nowhere near strict enough to maintain COVID elimination.

Two friends of mine just came back from the States. A lot of fuss and procedures and tests.... but no, they don't have to do hotel quarantine. Just hired a car to take them back to their apartments, where they are supposed to isolate for two weeks (but nobody will check up on them). They are both planning to stay inside but will be teaching English at home in-person, with students visiting them during this two week period, since this is not prohibited. I doubt either of them has COVID but cases will inevitably slip through with this level of border controls, and then Japan is not crushing every cluster because they lack the legal mandate that Oz and HK etc. have. HK and Oz etc. are closing down whole cities and forcibly quarantining blocks where cases have broken out. There is nothing like that herehence, cases and deaths continue to rumble alongdaily deaths are actually slightly higher than the UK now.

I'm not complaining really (we have really got off quite lightly in this pandemic) but am just making the point that Japan has never adopted "elimination" policies like Australia.

FWIW, Tokyo looks about as busy as usual right now. I live in a downtown part of Tokyo and there are some restaurants on holiday, but the streets are buzzing and feel about the same as they always do. There government can't force any privately owned business to close down, so the restaurants that have stayed open look a bit more crowded than usual. I'm LOLing at "far quieter than usual"---really? This is not the case in one single part of Tokyo that I've spent time in this week.

We have never had any kind of mandatory mask policy anywhere. People do nearly always wear masks in indoor public places, and also wear them quite a lot in outdoor public places, but it's not legally required anywhere.

Whoa, has anyone seen the news? Australians who attempt to come home from India (about 9000 people) face five years of jail. That's.... quite something, isn't it?

[quote ButtonMoony]@CarrieAntoinette in any way if you want to live in a world where people can travel freely and without isolation periods - which most people do.

It is not viable to balance peoples need to travel and see loved ones with keeping covid out of a population in the medium to long term. Hence why most places that did manage it in the short term while vaccines were developed and administered are now starting to move to mitigation and balance the ever decreasing COVID risk with giving people their lives back.[/quote]
I don't know of any country that is moving away from the gold standard of covid control in the middle of the ongoing pandemic, and here are some graphs from The Lancet on why not.

@Kokeshi123

Whoa, has anyone seen the news? Australians who attempt to come home from India (about 9000 people) face five years of jail. That's.... quite something, isn't it?

It certainly is. I’m not surprised though, Australia’s past record on immigration and asylum (legal or otherwise) doesn’t generally focus on the touchy feely side of the movement of people and they’re generally very strict and willing to implement hardcore methods to control their borders.