Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

@Kokeshi123

Of course they should maintain their maximum suppression approach.

For years on end?

As I said below

Whilst the covid pandemic is growing globally, and providing plenty of cautionary tales about the costs of not managing covid properly, any country at zero would be extremely foolish to give that up.

Come on, even the 1918 Spanish flu didn’t go on for ‘years on end’.

The selection pressures on influenza v Covid plus the fact that the 1918 pandemic was an influenza virus at all, make it a pretty poor comparator for how long a coronavirus pandemic may last.

Incubation period alone is startlingly different, as is the mutation rate.

I don't think the pandemic will go on for years either. But some people in Oz have suggested borders staying closed til 2024!

Interesting possibility: restrictions on borders could turn into a permanent (or, at least, long-term) reset on immigration levels.
amp.abc.net.au/article/13221796?__twitter_impression=true
www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/437205/migration-will-not-return-to-pre-covid-levels-when-nz-border-reopens-immigration-minister-warns

Perhaps in other countries as well in Asia especially.

I am not particular pro or anti immigration in general, just think it's interesting to speculate.

the pandemic side of Spanish flu didnt last for years no but there are still genetic descedents around today.

Coronavirus pandemic will end and will end I suspect within the next year or so. But it is now endemic there is no going away and that is the challenge they face in dealing with - and if you are going for zero covid how long can you do that.

Vaccination I suspect is key here

I maintain. It’s not going to be ‘years on end’.

The Australian economy depends on migration to drive up house prices.

Of course it will be years on end. Their aim is zero Covid. Which is not what the rest of the world is doing. It’s going to be very hard to open up with Covid circulating in the rest of the world if that’s been your strategy.

2024 is years away.

The problem with relying on vaccinations is there will be many (kids etc) who can’t have vaccinations. Couple that with zero natural immunity and if they let their guard
down Covid will spread. Despite vaccinations. So you are looking at restrictions and spontaneous, no notice lockdowns for a very long time.

It absolutely will be years on end. It’s already been 14 months. Nothing at all will happen until everyone has been offered a vaccine which will be q1/2 2022. There is a federal election in May 2022 and no one will open the border before then. They are talking about building quarantine facilities for international students but if you don’t allow home quarantine you have to cap the number going out.

My prediction is nothing much will happen until Christmas 2022 at the earliest, which will have been 3 years - so several years at best.

I maintain. It’s not going to be ‘years on end’.

Well that would be lovely and as an Australian I’m crossing my fingers.

But in the absence of any kind of a long-term strategy from the government that sets out the long-term objective and the roadmap for getting there, we’re all just guessing.

That’s why a plan - and a stated goal - would be nice. It’s getting a bit too close to a federal election to be comfortable with waffle that allows people to spin their own preferred narrative.

Under 16s will not be vaccinated until 2022 at the absolute earliest. Will they open up before the kids are done? At that point it will be three years.

Chris Whitty was asked by ministers whether they should close the border. His reply was that it was too late, the virus had already gained a foothold here. Australia and New Zealand are lucky to be sparsely-populated islands, thousands of miles from anywhere. They don't have anything like the number of international trains, ferries ann flights we have. They will have very little accompanied freight arriving. I doubt that there were many Australians skiing in the Tyrol.

The point I am making is that they could easily close their borders easily with little harm done. The UK couldn't, there would be significant numbers of people stranded and we would have quickly run out of food and supplies. Look what happened last winter when Macron closed the French ferry ports. Then imagine closing the links with Belgium and The Netherlands too. Unthinkable.

@StartupRepair

The Australian economy depends on migration to drive up house prices.

If that's the case, that might explain the popularity of the border restrictions even amongst many young Australians (who are at lower risk from Covid). People need affordable homes.

@DdraigGoch
Africa and East Asia are not sparsely populated or miles away from anywhere. They managed to receive plenty of food and medical deliveries whilst maintaining strict border restrictions and quarantine.

Of course it wasn't too late. It had already started spreading in several of the many countries who consequently restricted their borders. They had short strict lockdowns with proper contract tracing to contain it. Then opened up domestically but maintained their border controls.

We've had several opportunities since. After the first lockdown, and again at the end of the winter one, our numbers were relatively low.

Of course it needs to be planned and organised and well managed. Macron's trucker thing wasn't, but that doesn't mean anything.

@JassyRadlett

I maintain. It’s not going to be ‘years on end’.

Well that would be lovely and as an Australian I’m crossing my fingers.

But in the absence of any kind of a long-term strategy from the government that sets out the long-term objective and the roadmap for getting there, we’re all just guessing.

That’s why a plan - and a stated goal - would be nice. It’s getting a bit too close to a federal election to be comfortable with waffle that allows people to spin their own preferred narrative.

We've got a road map.

The virus hasn't signed up to it.

At best it keeps people quiet for a while, at worst it misleads the easily mislead that covid is magically going to end on June 21st.

If you'd rather spend three years of covid going in and out of lockdown and watching "the bodies pile up in their thousands" then come to the U.K.

I'd cheerfully swap with you.

CarrieAntoinette

You obviously didn't watch the briefing tonight then!? All on track with the roadmap, very low levels of virus circulating, 1 in 4 adults fully vaccinated. C'mon, get optimistic!

Who on earth says it is going to end June 21st that isnt the rhetoric at all - that is that it is going anywhere, it is here to stay and like a lot of viruses will be responsible for the deaths of a certain number of people per year like we do with the flu. We will have a vaccine programme each autumn/winter (same as flu). You are right it might not follow that pattern but there is nothing to say it wont (and given other pandemics it would seem the most likely cause)

Why do you think it will be 3 years of lockdowns?

@Helpmebenicer

CarrieAntoinette

You obviously didn't watch the briefing tonight then!? All on track with the roadmap, very low levels of virus circulating, 1 in 4 adults fully vaccinated. C'mon, get optimistic!

break the back of the beast in 12 weeks" "turn the tide in 12 weeks" from March 2020 or "lockdown is the nuclear option. I don't think we'll be in that position again" from July 2020, or "normality by Christmas" again from July 2020.

Or my personal favourite, that I have cut and pasted for accuracy:

16 December: “I want to be clear, we don’t want to ban Christmas, to cancel it … I think that would be frankly inhuman and against the instincts of many people in this country … Nor do we want to criminalise plans people may have made for some time.”

19 December: It is announced that many people will have to cancel their plans for Christmas after a sharp increase in cases across London and the south-east. Ministers say those attempting to travel out of tier 4 areas could be arrested.

After the year we've had surely we all know by now that things our government (mostly our Prime Minister) have said to us don't always come true.

They don't control the virus, (Proactive) the virus controls them. (Reactive)

The virus hasn't gone anywhere. All the new variants are worse than the originals. So obviously covid is not going to be over on June 21st. Anywhere.

But whilst we all live through this crisis, the people who are living closest to normal lives are in the zero covid countries.

Whilst completely ignoring the fact we have an army of successful vaccines that are working..

But CarrieAntoinette no one is saying that it is going anywhere - the whole point of the problem of the countries that have zero covid at the moment is that it isnt going anywhere and that there are variants. So weirdly you are showing exactly the problem Australia and New Zealand are facing which is that barring locking everyone out for the next 2 or so years what do they do

The 2020 ones for the most part were fairly accurate when they were said (in that we did start to go back to some form of normality over the summer and July 2020 was positive)

Christmas well that was a shit show I dont think anyone could argue differently.

The June 21st is the point at which we can start looking at whether we can managed and live with COVID fairly normally (like other viruses) not the point where it is going to magically disappear.

@Quartz2208

Who on earth says it is going to end June 21st that isnt the rhetoric at all - that is that it is going anywhere, it is here to stay and like a lot of viruses will be responsible for the deaths of a certain number of people per year like we do with the flu. We will have a vaccine programme each autumn/winter (same as flu). You are right it might not follow that pattern but there is nothing to say it wont (and given other pandemics it would seem the most likely cause)

Why do you think it will be 3 years of lockdowns?

People post on here about things "going back to normal" on June 21st all the time. That's not what the government have said but that is the impression a lot of people seem to have.

It'll be about 18 months since the first U.K. death when we come out of Lockdown on June 21st.

B117, P1 and B1351 are more infectious and more deadly than last year's covid. ( We don't know enough about B1617 yet, but looking at the damage it's wreaking in India only the disingenuous and perpetually wrong about covid would suggest it is any more benign than the others.)

The next wave is forecast for somewhere between now and the autumn, and based on past form our government's response will be inadequate until it's too late and so we'll have to have another five month lockdown.

That takes us to next Spring. By which time uncontrolled spread will likely have thrown up a new crop of variants with a higher degree of vaccine evasion, and we'll spend 2022 much like we've spent 2021.

In 2023 everyone is sick of this shit, and we go zero covid. (This is my optimistic part @Helpmebenicer, it's likely we'll still have a vocal contingent who say "we should just go back to normal. Everything will be FINE.".)

My less optimistic view is that we stupidly allow it to become endemic at a high level of say 80,000 new cases a month in the U.K., and it takes about five or six years to vaccinate the world and until then the variants (and the lockdowns) keep coming. And 50,000 - 60,000 of our children's grandparents die of it every winter.

@Quartz2208

But CarrieAntoinette no one is saying that it is going anywhere - the whole point of the problem of the countries that have zero covid at the moment is that it isnt going anywhere and that there are variants. So weirdly you are showing exactly the problem Australia and New Zealand are facing which is that barring locking everyone out for the next 2 or so years what do they do

The 2020 ones for the most part were fairly accurate when they were said (in that we did start to go back to some form of normality over the summer and July 2020 was positive)

Christmas well that was a shit show I dont think anyone could argue differently.

The June 21st is the point at which we can start looking at whether we can managed and live with COVID fairly normally (like other viruses) not the point where it is going to magically disappear.

Doing what the zero countries are doing was the best plan last year. It's the best plan this year. And it will likely be the best plan next year too.

Travel corridors and quarantine can allow some degree of international travel, and anyone who wants to swap their relative normality for our chaos is is free to do so.

@Delatron

Whilst completely ignoring the fact we have an army of successful vaccines that are working..

My optimistic scenario is entirely vaccine dependent.

20.3% of the U.K. population fully vaccinated is still a long way from herd immunity, however.

Even if we reach herd immunity in the autumn, it is of limited help in an unvaccinated world.

We arent going to eradicate Covid in the next few years we simply arent. So yes we need to prepare for an endemic and we need to prepare for I think around the 15,000-20,000 mark at least with cases in the autumn/winter we just do.

And vaccines will help with that.

But there will be clusters going forward. Zero Covid worked last year and for this year but it is how to manage going forward they need to work out

CarrieAntoinette

Blimey, how do you live with that level of negativity in your head? Honestly I think you need to just keep coming back to vaccines and try not to gallop ahead