Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

"1. I actually don't mind masks that much, but a lot of people hate wearing them and find them really uncomfortable."

Yep, mask acne and fogged up glasses. Yes, better than getting and passing on Covid, but not better than the risk of a cold.

Agree about the impact of no colds/ general bugs. I fear for next winter’s flu season. I’m going to cut down on anti bac stuff. Drinking kefir like it’s going out of fashion at the moment.. Gut health and diversity is so important for our immune systemZ

Here's something that supports what @sashagabadon mentioned about us being through the pandemic stage into the endemic stage. Interesting stuff.

Just happened to read this and it made me think of this thread as we were talking above about the panedmic preparedness league - and apparently countries were marked as being LESS prepared if they had previously closed borders, which given how it has played out, seems counter-intuitive

twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1385701999384088577

@TattyDevine

Here's something that supports what *@sashagabadon* mentioned about us being through the pandemic stage into the endemic stage. Interesting stuff.

"Covid is Over" season starts earlier and earlier every year.

I would hope it starts earlier the year the vaccine is going such great guns, or it would be a disappointing waste of time and money 👍🏻

"Covid is Over" season starts earlier and earlier every year

Already feels like a lifetime we have been doing this

”Covid is Over" season starts earlier and earlier every year.

God you’d hope so with vaccines this year and next year should be better and the next yet again.

Getting better each year is good

Given that this is the first time it has been announced that we have moved from pandemic to endemic and that it doesnt mean it is over - indeed the exact opposite which is that we now have to face it as a fact of life like flu

how can

"Covid is Over" season starts earlier and earlier every year.

make any sense at all

I hope this isn't "back to normal".

@TattyDevine

I hope this isn't "back to normal".

Don't know about Anzac Day but sadly thanks to terrorist threats (party crowd control safety measures too), the UK has had to have that sort of security for years at Remembrance events. You clearly haven't seen the security they have to have, included metal arches, searches, and barriers/fences at the Cenotaph.

*partly

This wasn't at the cenotaph.

And this is St Kilda Rd 2019

Looks much more crowded in the first picture. Presumably the first is near to 'the action' as it were. The VIP type figures, the actual ceremony. The second photo looks like it's a road away from the event - there's only a few people there.

That's kind of the point though - they shut people out of watching the service due to a cap on capacity "because Covid". Meanwhile, a crowd of 85,000 was allowed at the football. It's a disgrace. All over the news and Australians ranting on social media. I hope they sort it for next year.

I don't get your point. The first photo shows lots of people. It's crowded. That's this year. The second photo with only a few people is from 2019.

Separately, a cap on capacity is understandable and very sensible. Given the ages of many of the veterans, it's hardly a good idea to take any risks during a pandemic. Particularly as Australia has done so well so far at keeping it's population safe. Why mess up now and make the effort they've put in become all for nothing. Fall at the last hurdle? That would be a great shame. Baby steps is best.

The point is, they capped the amount of people being able to pay their respects "because Covid". Their solution to this? Put a load of ugly fencing up and they people ram themselves much closer together than they would if they were able to pay their respects in the usual fashion with a naturally socially distanced observation of the parade (see photo 2 - before social distancing was even a thing).

Meanwhile, despite their horror of crowds (even though they will happily say they are back to normal, they are obviously not), they allow 85,000 to watch a football game in a stadium.

So, lets pick on the Victorian Government for this one, as this is where it happened: Are you back to normal or not? If not, don't allow 85,000 at the football. And if you are, let people pay their respects to our veterans in the fashion of 2019 which looks very safe. I've attended many of those Anzac Day parades and distancing has never been an issue.

All brought to light as Australian news bulletins whether it is ABC news, Sky News, or 7, 9 and 10 news, are criticising the handling of it by the State government as are The Australian citizens who think it is a disgrace and are all complaining about it on social media.

I get that you are not bothered; you may not have lost any ancestors at Gallipoli or in the Second World War perhaps.

Putting words into people's mouths now?
Or are you on a different forum talking to someone else not bothered at the same time? You mention social media a lot so perhaps that's the case.

If they're having lots of people at football and smaller capacity at the remembrance events, that suggests it's possibly not to do with Covid.

What was the reason they gave? (They must've said why).

I'm guessing perhaps the age thing comes into it. The average age of a football audience tends to be younger. Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe they saw the terrible scenes from India and it reminded them why it's so important to maintain caution.

And, again. The second photo you put up (from 2019) is away from the actual ceremony. The crowds will be where it's actually happening (like in the first photo).

Britain gets a mention in this piece about 50,000 at a Six60 gig:

www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/six60-in-eden-park-the-world-isolates-a-new-zealand-band-plays-to-50000-fans/NZJ5GVHQJNPIPHLQSYEEAAVM6E/

The reason given for the football and other sports going ahead, is that they're ticketed, and it's easy to trace surrounding contacts should any outbreaks occur, not the case for the Anzac day parades.

www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-hurry-why-impatience-over-vaccines-and-borders-will-divide-australia-20210420-p57ksd.html

www.smh.com.au/national/the-covid-19-vaccines-are-here-now-what-do-we-do-20210325-p57dxt.html

These interesting articles give a rundown of the discussions taking place within Australia about how and when to open up. It's clear that individual Australians all have very different views on this, and that the speed of reopening is likely to become a much-debated issue going forward.

On the one hand, many Australians are getting twitchy about not being able to travel, and a lot of business interests (esp tourism and higher education) are pushing for the country to open its borders as the vaccine is rolled out.

On the other hand, about 40% of Australians do not own passports and may feel no particular need for open borders any time soon. The articles also quote from some figures who are pushing for a longer-term Zero Covid approach:

"Professor Brendan Crabb is one of several scientists arguing Australia should maintain a zero tolerance to COVID-19 infections even post-vaccine. Unlike the flu, which kills hundreds of people every year, the community is “not going to tolerate severe disease and dying” from COVID-19, Professor Crabb said. That means maintaining high levels of security at the border, including quarantine, plus some level of social distancing locally and lockdowns if the virus gets away from us. A study published in the Lancet in March found a country immunised with a vaccine that was 50 per cent effective would see recurring epidemics; if the vaccine was 90 per cent effective, there would be none. Australia’s vaccine effectiveness will likely end up in the middle of that range. “In the absence of herd immunity ... you will need some level of public health intervention, to run side by side vaccines. And probably for ever, as long as we have virus,” says Professor Crabb."

I think that geopolitical concerns are going to become another point of tension. Those running tourism and higher education concerns want border to open more quickly, but if Australia continues to prioritize keeping COVID at zero or as close to zero as possible, they may open borders (or at least scale down quarantine requirements) for the other "zero COVID" countries, while continuing to wall themselves off from countries where the disease is commoner. That may push Australia in the direction of greater economic dependence on China---no other COVID free country can remotely match China in terms of economic heft, and if Australia cannot fill its hotel rooms and universities with students from Europe, the US, India and so on, it will need to get them from somewhere.

Australia has up to now been extremely brave in speaking out about China's poor human rights record, and in recent years there has been a push towards trying to reduce exposure to China. I'd be worried about the impact of Australia having to constantly make China happy for economic reasons....

Those are excellent articles and sum up my concerns - this is such a fraught and divided issue and a country that increasingly used to zero Covid will have very difficult and divisive choices to make - that will only get more difficult the longer they take to make them.

Also a useful counterpoint to those saying there aren’t any voices arguing for permanent quarantine...

Of course they should maintain their maximum suppression approach.

I think year on year the countries who did max suppression will fare better economically and their citizens will leave lives closer to fully normal than those who didn't.

Of course there are trade offs. But some of them can managed with travel corridors and quarantine.

But whilst the covid pandemic is growing globally, and providing plenty of cautionary tales about the costs of not managing covid properly, any country at zero would be extremely foolish to give that up.

Of course they should maintain their maximum suppression approach.

For years on end?

It’s not going to be years on end!

Come on, even the 1918 Spanish flu didn’t go on for ‘years on end’.