India double mutation and red list

[Clotsaway]

This is worrying. They have all the variants present and a new double mutation of covid.

When will they be red listed? Sure as hell don't want the double mutation coming into the country. What's taking the government so long to ted list them?!?!

It could happen in a trice @MarshaBradyo. And cost anything! No problem!

We’ve been sending people to India for years to get trade deals. There’s probably not much there to gain. Certainly no reason to think Boris going would make a tangible difference. He’d be better off focusing his attention closer to home tbh.

That was to your previous post @MarshaBradyo

@tobee

It could happen in a trice *@MarshaBradyo*. And cost anything! No problem!

Yep just pop that over there

BoJo isn't going anymore now due to rising cases.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

We’ve been sending people to India for years to get trade deals. There’s probably not much there to gain. Certainly no reason to think Boris going would make a tangible difference. He’d be better off focusing his attention closer to home tbh.

True! But we hadn't had Brexit then. So different deals to make.

Disclaimer:- I'm not pro Boris Johnson, Tories or Brexit.

Didn’t the Kent variant start slowly here though? It started in a patient in East Anglia in Sept, but it was Nov/Dec by the time it took off in the SE and later for the rest of the country.

True toobee. Not sure it makes the chances of a good deal better. Although who knows what two corrupt governments can come up with together.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

Didn’t the Kent variant start slowly here though? It started in a patient in East Anglia in Sept, but it was Nov/Dec by the time it took off in the SE and later for the rest of the country.

Yes it takes a while to "seed" a new variant. But it also needs to be more transmissible to then current variants currently are. That's why variants need sequencing and watching.

Plenty of scientists are saying they are not worried a significant variant will take off yet that has vaccine evasion. Which is why everything is being focussed on sequencing, ramping it up, and boosters prepared if necessary.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

True toobee. Not sure it makes the chances of a good deal better. Although who knows what two corrupt governments can come up with together.

Sure it's all pr and Johnson has been itching to be seen as a great statesman and dealmaker (a la Trump?) bestriding the world to show the marvellous benefits of Brexit. Then this pesky virus got in the way.

The disclaimer made me laugh good one ;

I’m sure I heard that Indo Pacific region will be of greater relevance and more important globally, and to U.K. makes sense.

Oh here www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/15/why-britain-is-tilting-to-the-indo-pacific-region

Haven’t read it

@Torvean

BoJo isn't going anymore now due to rising cases.

Yes I've just seen that - that's a relief. It seemed a bit stupid to be going there at the moment.

There probably are some benefits. But the vast majority of global trade happens with close geographic neighbours. So time might be better spent fixing the colossal screw up he’s made with that.

How long do you reckon it’ll take for India to change lists? Today? Tomorrow?

I did just read it just in case it was about something else, quite compelling. Hard though to get ahead with India by the sounds of it. But the geopolitical centre argument is a strong one.

I’m not sure what’s going on with red list although, perhaps they’ll be added.

@MarshaBradyo

Someone will no doubt pop up and say, but what about lorry drivers bringing in essential food and medicines from Europe. It has always baffled me why haulage companies pay for their lorry drivers to sit idle on a ferry or train, surely there is a more efficient system whereby the trailers are dropped at the port, put on the ferry and picked up by a European driver on the other side.

What infrastructure do you need to put in place for this to happen in the numbers needed?

Heaven knows what infrastructure would be needed but even if you removed the vehicle drivers there's still the issue of the crew of the ship/train itself - they will almost certainly have to come into contact with people at both ends of the journey, though perhaps only briefly.,

There's also similar problem with those involved with airfreight.

I’ve read the first part but on the bus and it’s a bit tricky so will read the rest later.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

Didn’t the Kent variant start slowly here though? It started in a patient in East Anglia in Sept, but it was Nov/Dec by the time it took off in the SE and later for the rest of the country.

The Indian variant is apparently doubling at the same rate the Kent variant was doubling when in low numbers despite a) greater restrictions in place currently and b) lots of people having had at least one vaccine dose.

The UK is far too complacent about Covid still.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

We’ve been sending people to India for years to get trade deals. There’s probably not much there to gain. Certainly no reason to think Boris going would make a tangible difference. He’d be better off focusing his attention closer to home tbh.

Like Europe perhaps

I'm expecting Whitty and Vallance to appear on my television with a new graph of doom within the month to be honest.

This reminds me very much of last August when numbers started creeping up.

Only while B117 was doing it during a period of of lighter restrictions last summer/early autumn, B1617 is doubling while we're still in Lockdown and some of the population is vaccinated.

I doubt it, I hope I’m right. If we’ve seen the last of that then good.

What are hospitalisations and deaths doing?

@MarshaBradyo

I doubt it, I hope I’m right. If we’ve seen the last of that then good.

What are hospitalisations and deaths doing?

We're in lockdown.

And B1617 isn't dominant yet.

But at the speed it's going it could definitely become dominant in a few months, certainly before everybody is vaccinated.

And we're not doing enough about it because it's "only" a VUI not a VOC yet. (But it will be, possibly too late to be effective.)

I really miss the precautionary principle.

We can see what B1617 is doing in India, what harm would it do to designate it a VOC and Red List it, qualify it for surge testing, etc?

And what harm will it do if we don't?

I posted this on the other B1617 thread

A single flight from Delhi to Hong Kong has so far led to 47 imported cases. All were required to do pre-departure testing and all were tested upon arrival. Yet, most of the cases were detected in hotel quarantine (most detected on day 12).

The U.K. would only ask someone on a flight from India to quarantine for 10 days so those day 12 cases would be out and about walking among us.

twitter.com/tripperhead/status/1383769373563752455?s=21

Princess I’m not against precautionary approach or red list either. I haven’t heard the rationale for waiting if there is one. I’d be interested to hear more overall

@MarshaBradyo

Princess I’m not against precautionary approach or red list either. I haven’t heard the rationale for waiting if there is one. I’d be interested to hear more overall

It doesn't qualify for VOC yet.

Susan Hopkins explains it here:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/14692024/south-african-kent-variant-covid-vaccinated-patients/amp/

Even The Sun's variant explainer has B1617 as almost an after thought.

It looks as if it might be able to dominate over B117 in India, so if it were up to me I'd be VOCing the life out of it and not giving it the chance to do that here.

I don't see the sense in waiting for conclusive confirmation when Indus are unable to provide it, and it does no harm to escalate it now and qualify it for firmer measures.

But it would put India on the Red List...

And politically the government don't want that.