India double mutation and red list

[Clotsaway]

This is worrying. They have all the variants present and a new double mutation of covid.

When will they be red listed? Sure as hell don't want the double mutation coming into the country. What's taking the government so long to ted list them?!?!

@Tealightsandd

You couldn't make it up, could you. The response to an increasing population was to reduce hospital beds...

There is some logic behind reducing the number of hospitals beds. Over the same time period the length of the average hospital stay reduced by about 40% and many patients that used to stay in overnight are now day surgery cases. But, with an aging population and a poorly organised care system and improvements in medicine keeping people alive for longer (my dc would not have survived in the 1980s and so would not have spent months in hospital) increased demands on hospital beds were I would have thought perfectly predictable and personally I think it would be better to maintain the NHS with a chunk of spare capacity so it is better able to cope with surges in demand such as we have seen over the past year.

@jgw1

I think reducing staffing and beds is clearly a mistake in hindsight. But we now have the staff and beds that we have. Too can’t train nurses overnight.

We therefore need to look at maximising the effectiveness of the resources we have.

It would be morally indefensible imo to close businesses to protect the NHS when there are nurse available elsewhere in the country to step in.

Clearly you would look for volunteers first. But I would impose it on staff as a last resort.

If you go into hospital, you will find that the vast majority of patients are elderly (apart from the maternity unit!). Most people are despatched home asap even after quite major operations. But elderly people often linger because they -naturally - take longer to recover and often are not well enough to return home as have no support there and/or a place has to be found for them in a care home.

The mistake was closing cottage hospitals. These offered recuperative care but now elderly people are occupying acute hospital beds long term as there is now no halfway house.

[quote SpringTides5]@jgw1

I think reducing staffing and beds is clearly a mistake in hindsight. But we now have the staff and beds that we have. Too can’t train nurses overnight.

We therefore need to look at maximising the effectiveness of the resources we have.

It would be morally indefensible imo to close businesses to protect the NHS when there are nurse available elsewhere in the country to step in.

Clearly you would look for volunteers first. But I would impose it on staff as a last resort.[/quote]
If you think that reducing staffing in the 1980s, 90s, 2000s, and 2010s was a mistake, why are you proposing something that would further reduce staffing?

@jgw1

I think it’s fair to assume that nurses may look elsewhere during normal times. But right now other roles are not easy to come by. I suspect many NHS staff would shrug and accept new conditions.

I also think many NHS staff are well aware of their civic duty to care for their patients and society. Many will accept the need to temporarily transfer elsewhere if that is needed by the country at large.

[quote SpringTides5]@jgw1

I think it’s fair to assume that nurses may look elsewhere during normal times. But right now other roles are not easy to come by. I suspect many NHS staff would shrug and accept new conditions.

I also think many NHS staff are well aware of their civic duty to care for their patients and society. Many will accept the need to temporarily transfer elsewhere if that is needed by the country at large.[/quote]
According to the Kings Fund (who study these things) in October 2020 there were 38,000 NHS nursing vacancies. That is 1 in 10 of the workforce. 28% of nurses and midwives leave community and hospital roles within the first 3 years and yet somehow you think that all the stress that such staff have been through during the pandemic means that they now suddenly will want to continue in their jobs, with the insult of a pay rise the government have suggested.

I think it’s fair to assume that nurses may look elsewhere during normal times. But right now other roles are not easy to come by. I suspect many NHS staff would shrug and accept new conditions.

I also think many NHS staff are well aware of their civic duty to care for their patients and society. Many will accept the need to temporarily transfer elsewhere if that is needed by the country at large.

With all due respect you haven't got a clue what you're talking about

@BonnieDundee

I think it’s fair to assume that nurses may look elsewhere during normal times. But right now other roles are not easy to come by. I suspect many NHS staff would shrug and accept new conditions.

I also think many NHS staff are well aware of their civic duty to care for their patients and society. Many will accept the need to temporarily transfer elsewhere if that is needed by the country at large.

With all due respect you haven't got a clue what you're talking about

Ideal candidate to be a government minister I would have thought.

To think Bojo is flying into India as well, very much doubt the useless but will quarantine back on arrival here?

@SakuraEdenSwan1

To think Bojo is flying into India as well, very much doubt the useless but will quarantine back on arrival here?

He will have to self isolate according to government rules.But as its not on the red list, it will be from home.

I mean can you imagine boris putting India on the red list, arriving at Heathrow, being taken to a quarantine hotel, staying there for 10 days and having eating lunch box meals and are just standard! Nah, I didn't think so either 🤣

Many will accept the need to temporarily transfer elsewhere if that is needed by the country at large.

What planet are you on? You keep banging on the same drum here

Where do the transferred nurses live? Who pays for their accommodation? Who pays to look after their children at weekends?

Maybe try a more practical suggestion instead of being ridiculous. Please!!

Hospital capacity seemed to be perpetually “at breaking point” all winter. It never broke did it? It never does. Perhaps NHS managers need to get on with their jobs instead of their constant moaning.

I was working in an NHS trust in Kent in December and January. No elective operations took place- none. We have waiting lists of over 2 years now. We lost all our junior doctors to the Covid wards. What is your idea of broken please ? I have worked through 20 winters I have never seen anything like it before.

Just stop all international travel . As an island we have a much better chance of containing this virus.
Before anyone comments , I am an immigrant who hasn’t travelled home since Christmas 2019 . I would love to go see my family but we all need to make sacrifices to keep everyone safe .

@Mayra1367

Just stop all international travel . As an island we have a much better chance of containing this virus. Before anyone comments , I am an immigrant who hasn’t travelled home since Christmas 2019 . I would love to go see my family but we all need to make sacrifices to keep everyone safe .

Someone will no doubt pop up and say, but what about lorry drivers bringing in essential food and medicines from Europe. It has always baffled me why haulage companies pay for their lorry drivers to sit idle on a ferry or train, surely there is a more efficient system whereby the trailers are dropped at the port, put on the ferry and picked up by a European driver on the other side.

Even if you couldn’t stop the lorry drivers because it’s essential, you could stop everything else non-essential. I can’t see why anywhere with high levels of transmission should be on the green list. Waiting for enough evidence to know whether a variant is a concern seems like a policy that’s definitely going to end badly at some point.

Not putting India on the list because the pm is going there is going to end up in the report into the handling of Covid in years to come.

From Sky News this morning:-

"Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said that the variant of the virus first identified in India should be "watched carefully" but it is "probably not at the top tier of mutations that generate the most concern".

Boris Johnson no longer going to India

@tobee, do you have a link?

Johnson cancels trip to India amid rising Covid cases

TFFT! Surely there's no excuse now for India not to go on the red list!...

About Dr Geoffrey Barrett? It was part of the sky daily briefing @CoffeandPancakes

22

Expert says Indian variant not at 'top tier' of concern about mutations

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said that the variant of the virus first identified in India should be "watched carefully" but it is "probably not at the top tier of mutations that generate the most concern".

He told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme that the first cases of the variant were identified late last year.

"This variant has a couple of mutations that are among those that we think are important that should be watched carefully, but they're actually probably not at the very kind of top tier of mutations, for example in the B117 - or Kent variant - or the South African variant, that generate the most concern.

"And in terms of spread, clearly this variant has increased in frequency in India around the same time as their very large and tragic recent wave.

"But I just don't think we know yet whether there's a cause and effect relationship - is this variant driving that spread? Or is it happening at the same time perhaps due to a coincidence?"

He added: "And one thing to note is that there were some sequences of this variant B1.617 seen late last year. And so in some sense, if it really is driving this wave, the fuse has been burning for quite a long time, which would make it look, probably less transmissible than B117."

I get it needs red listed but it's not his personal benefit to get a trade deal with india - posters seem naïve to just berate the Gov - apart from the US who must be making billions on billions in tax from the online companies in silicon valley the rest of the world is stuffed post covid, the more trade deals we can make the better.
Trump increased tax on whisky for some reason, that is the biggest earner in Scotland. I'm sure that doesn't matter in the home counties but it matters elsewhere.

Sorry that "22" is 08.22

Someone will no doubt pop up and say, but what about lorry drivers bringing in essential food and medicines from Europe. It has always baffled me why haulage companies pay for their lorry drivers to sit idle on a ferry or train, surely there is a more efficient system whereby the trailers are dropped at the port, put on the ferry and picked up by a European driver on the other side.

What infrastructure do you need to put in place for this to happen in the numbers needed?

@tobee

About Dr Geoffrey Barrett? It was part of the sky daily briefing *@CoffeandPancakes*

22

Expert says Indian variant not at 'top tier' of concern about mutations

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said that the variant of the virus first identified in India should be "watched carefully" but it is "probably not at the top tier of mutations that generate the most concern".

He told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme that the first cases of the variant were identified late last year.

"This variant has a couple of mutations that are among those that we think are important that should be watched carefully, but they're actually probably not at the very kind of top tier of mutations, for example in the B117 - or Kent variant - or the South African variant, that generate the most concern.

"And in terms of spread, clearly this variant has increased in frequency in India around the same time as their very large and tragic recent wave.

"But I just don't think we know yet whether there's a cause and effect relationship - is this variant driving that spread? Or is it happening at the same time perhaps due to a coincidence?"

He added: "And one thing to note is that there were some sequences of this variant B1.617 seen late last year. And so in some sense, if it really is driving this wave, the fuse has been burning for quite a long time, which would make it look, probably less transmissible than B117."

This is interesting. Not long ago iirc seeing reports that India had unusually low rates.