45-49s jabs news, 40-44s watching and waiting thread

[MRex]

Follow-on to the happy thread: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4210673-Can-the-40-49-age-group-now-book-their-vaccine.

(I'm jabbed, but just here to read happy news of jabs and try to book DH when it's his time.)

We'll have to agree to disagree MRex

I think vaccines should be given first to the people at highest risk from covid and highest risk of catching covid.

London has much less protection against covid because of the open borders and lack of proper quarantine. Birmingham too to an extent.

That's the problem though @Tealightsandd, they actually aren't are higher risk than in Bradford, just look at the map of cases and see the difference in northern England rates compared with London: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map.

Look at the surveillance report data on seroprevalence, that adds a raft of immune people in London: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.

If you want to really talk about risk then you have to include all risk factors.

Every time round this has happened. People say rates are currently higher somewhere else. Yet both the first and second waves ended up hitting London harder than anywhere else. When it actually happened, the same people who denied London's higher risk shrugged and dismissed it by saying 'well of course it's more vulnerable'.

Over 10,000 Londoners are dead from covid. It's in London where the South African strain has been found, it's London (and Birmingham) on the frontline as an 'international travel hub' (by choice of the government), and it's London where hesitancy rates are highest.

That said, I'd prioritise all higher risk areas for 40-44 (and then 30s). So Bradford would be included.

@Tealightsandd

We'll have to agree to disagree MRex

I think vaccines should be given first to the people at highest risk from covid and highest risk of catching covid.

London has much less protection against covid because of the open borders and lack of proper quarantine. Birmingham too to an extent.

The tool used by the nhs to predict what’s your risk score of catching the virus takes the postcode into account. This has been used to send more vaccines where needed. Also just because people land in London doesn’t mean the virus will stay there. Through the airport people will have the masks most of the time so will be protected. If someone lands infected but then goes where they live that’s where the risk will be. This happened with the Brazilian variant few weeks ago. Cases where found in south Gloucestershire where the first affected was living rather than in London.

Perhaps third time round it will be different but I very much doubt it.

GPs are going to start inviting over 40s in my almost Covid-free area next week - SW.

DB in London borough with SA variant outbreak is 44 and not yet eligible.

The vaccines are not geographically where they need to be.

The majority of people landing at Heathrow travel from there on London's very busy public transport. And yes, it is still busy. Look at recent pictures of the tube. Very crowded.

As for the original cases in Gloucestershire, of course in order for cases to be found, testing has to happen. I strongly suspect a lot of earlier cases were missed and the deaths (London and elsewhere in the UK) were mistook as heart attacks, strokes, flu, or pneumonia.

Residents in the south London boroughs where the SA strain has spread to, including the mayor of London, have spoken about delays and slowness of testing there.

@trampolinesmaim

GPs are going to start inviting over 40s in my almost Covid-free area next week - SW.

DB in London borough with SA variant outbreak is 44 and not yet eligible.

The vaccines are not geographically where they need to be.

This.

@EasterIssland why is it then that the Brazilian variant while found elsewhere didn't take hold but South African variant has resulted in testing across 2 boroughs and several postcodes in London? Is that due to the variant rather than high population density in London?

I think the targeting of high risk areas, like the targeting of high risk workers beyond the nhs has been disregarded in favour of a simple system that will be quicker to administer. The more complicated it is the longer it will take.

I could understand that @wonderstuff but some areas are ahead. If anywhere is going to be ahead, it should be the higher risk places.

Thanks for the thread. Will be checking!

@trampolinesmaim

GPs are going to start inviting over 40s in my almost Covid-free area next week - SW.

DB in London borough with SA variant outbreak is 44 and not yet eligible.

The vaccines are not geographically where they need to be.

Makes sense!! If they were in London we would be hearing complaints about preferential treatment.

So glad I'm still waiting here in South London for 2-3 weeks, at least I can't be blamed for accessing my fair share.

[quote user34254356]@EasterIssland why is it then that the Brazilian variant while found elsewhere didn't take hold but South African variant has resulted in testing across 2 boroughs and several postcodes in London? Is that due to the variant rather than high population density in London?

[/quote]
Several postcodes of Bristol had massive testing. Also south Gloucestershire.

user there have been lots of threads on here where people under 45 are being called for vaccine in some London bouroughs. I suspect I will also be waiting at least another 2 -3 weeks at least, but don't grudge anyone going when they get the invite .

Also if a postcode in London Has got high amount of sa variant cases , even if you vaccinate them today then the vaccines still don’t make effect for another 3 weeks. So it won’t still avoid the virus spreading really. Other measures would make more which effect rather than the vaccines.

More quick effect

@EasterIssland

Also if a postcode in London Has got high amount of sa variant cases , even if you vaccinate them today then the vaccines still don’t make effect for another 3 weeks. So it won’t still avoid the virus spreading really. Other measures would make more which effect rather than the vaccines.

The AZ vaccine may be less effective anyway.

I may have forgotten what the point was of this digression but I think we were discussing that London may be more exposed to these new foreign variants.

As a Londoner who has had covid twice including long covid, I do feel overly exposed. You can agree to disagree - but I was very careful and lived life as a hermit last year and still caught it again. So yes I am anxiously waiting to be vaccinated.

Easter I agree. 40s (and then 30s) Londoners should have been prioritised sooner. Better late then never though. We could still protect quite a lot of people before it spreads further. Also we should get going before Boris brings the Indian strain back.

If the government wants to keep open borders and no real quarantine, it's the only way to protect those living in the frontline.

But places aren't ahead as a policy, it's regional fluctuations in delivery of the program. At the end of March there was a clear instruction to all providers to focus on 1-9 and declare excess vaccines so the whole program was focused on the vulnerable groups as priority. Regional variations are inevitable and if London was purposely prioritised the effect would not necessarily be to get them done first but would more likely just hold up areas that for whatever reason are progressing more quickly.

This is the quickest way to proceed while making some priority based on age.

I hope you get yours soon @user34254356
Same for your brother @trampolinesmaim

Scientists believe AZ should still protect against serious illness or death from the SA strain. Fingers crossed they're right.

Some of my work colleagues younger than my husband have been called for vaccination. We’re in the same city but their gp has been quicker / or had more refusal than other areas. If my colleague wrote here on mn you might think that 20s are getting their vaccine in sw whilst the case is that it’s not everywhere. My husbands young ones haven’t been called yet.

I am in Birmingham and 43 and have not been invited for a vaccine, so it isn't true to say the city as a whole is ahead. Birmingham is a big place with a very mixed picture for roll out. Our surgery group has lagged behind the national booking system at every stage. It is unfortunate as I work in an area with very low take up but as I've had Covid, I am trying not to be too impatient.

Also, looking at the last 7 day cases by area London isn’t the place where most cases have been.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Yorkshire and The Humber 3,237 58.8
West Midlands 1,506 25.4
South West 775 13.8
South East 1,765 19.2
North West 2,211 30.1
North East 679 25.4
London 2,165 24.2
East of England 1,436 23
East Midlands 1,708 35.3

Copy paste is not my good :)
Yorkshire has had 3k cases in the last week whilst London has been 2k