I don’t think we know about supply into May yet. I think the gov are cagey and do t like to say too much.
When there was going to a be a dip in April supply, NHS England wrote to the licensed vaccine centres to tell them in the weekly update. (These are available on the NHS ENgland site section of advice to licensed vaccine sites and are usually issued on Thursdays but not always). Hancock then reported the shortage in a briefing but it was because there had been news reports about the letter and Qs were coming from journalists about it.
Nothing has been said yet about supply in May.
2nd jabs will have to remain the priority.
Rollout to younger groups will happen bradly in line with supply. JCVI guidance about Phase 2 rollout of vaccine which was issued yesterday to GPs and other providers talks about broadly maintaining the age rollout for operational simplicity, but also gives GPs some flexibility to respond to local circumstances and particularly to attract those who have been or might be hesitant in various age groups. They are told to work hard to get men 45-9 particularly to book ASAP as their data shows hospitalisation of this age group increases but for men is double that of women. They also state that men who work in jobs which have required leaving the home through lockdown and who also have other risk factors such as being in BAME groups, BMI of 30+ and living in areas of deprivation should be targeted.
I think the broad rollout by age will continue and will mostly be based around the supplies for 1st jabs going to large vaccine centres. GPs will mostly deliver 2nd jabs for some times and also target those most in need with the limited supply they have for 1st jabs, but I think we will see more and more regional variation and variation particularly at arc level from GPs as they use their limited supply to meet the specific needs of their geographical area. In some areas that will simply be the oldest eligible groups that they have supply for. In other areas, it could be younger groups who are either shown to be vulnerable or at risk in some way, because it is known take up via the national system will be high for the general age categories in those areas.
Will be interesting to see what supply will be like. I think they don’t want to trumpet a bumper delivery if expected as it raises hopes which can easily be dashed, as we saw in mid March when people thought the 40s rollout was very imminent and then it took another 4 weeks. And they don’t want to worry people or induce panic either. I’d don’t think much more than the broad goal of all adults by 31 July will come between now and then. When they can push ahead a supply is good they will, and the relatively cautious target should still be met if they are low supply weeks too.
Many of the difficulties people are having in booking 2 appointments now, arise from limited supply...much of that limit is probably now....but perhaps they also don’t expect really large supply in 12 weeks either and they can’t book huge numbers of doses for the next couple of weeks even if they have supply now, unless they can be certain the 2nd doses will be there in 12 weeks to complete the course.