45-49s jabs news, 40-44s watching and waiting thread

[MRex]

Follow-on to the happy thread: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4210673-Can-the-40-49-age-group-now-book-their-vaccine.

(I'm jabbed, but just here to read happy news of jabs and try to book DH when it's his time.)

Now if the claim upthread that so many Londoners have left it's emptied out is correct, why aren't 37 year olds in London getting the jab (as they are in Derbyshire and Wales)?

London GPs seem to be doing a lot of chasing (and perhaps, more than GPs in other regions).

A vaccine resistant cleaner in our office got two calls from his GP. He still refused the vaccine (at least, for now) but he seems to be seriously considering the option. A month ago he was adamant he had a natural immunity and vaccines were pointless.

Nobody's claiming that all Londoners have left, we're explaining that more people fit into the "it's complicated" bracket. More examples: a local friend's MIL arrived in December from France and stayed right through lockdown, she's been vaccinated but wasn't registered because she doesn't live here. Their immediate neighbours had gone to the USA and decided to wait out lockdown there (one is American); they both got vaccinated in the US but aren't logged as anything yet. In my old area, some people aren't citizens and aren't registered anywhere (will they will be fine at walk-ins with proof of age? Do they know that?) - meanwhile I'm called for a vaccine even though I've moved to a GP in another borough. So it isn't easy to how the navy of which age live where. Add to that some vaccine scepticism among some BAME and EU community so yeah, it's not going to be as easy for those areas to confirm if or when everyone's been offered.

Clearly considerable numbers of the expat population has stayed put then. Seeing as they're still ploughing through the 45+ there (officially at least).

What's certain is that early 40s in the London areas with the SA strain (south London and Barnet) aren't yet being done, the odd outlier GP excepted.

"So it isn't easy to how the navy of which age live where" should say "So it isn't easy to know how many of which age live where".

What we do know and can confirm - from personal experience, from people we know - friends and family, and from posters here, is that London has not received enough doses to do the early 40s. Despite being on the frontline for the South African strain (and possibly the Indian one too).

If people's MILs are all in America, that would speed up getting vaccines to other people, not slow it down.

We may not be able to know how many are being missed out, but we do know that early 40s are not, in general, being done in London. Despite the increased risks and despite other areas doing it.

@MRex

"So it isn't easy to how the navy of which age live where" should say "So it isn't easy to know how many of which age live where".

The many early 40s that we and the government do know about are not yet being done.

It's also undisputed that Sadiq Khan was telling the truth. London received a lower share of vaccines at the beginning. The government has acknowledged that.

So London absolutely did have it's rollout slowed down, and has been playing catch-up ever since. With the added complications you noted, and London's higher vulnerability from being frontline, it was even more important to ensure London had sufficient supplies.

I live here and DH is in that group, I'd love for there to be more vaccines available. I could just as easily make an argument that there should be more vaccines for areas where the virus has been endemic and cases still stubbornly stay a bit higher than elsewhere; Leicester, Luton and parts of Greater Manchester. Or more vaccines for areas that haven't been as badly hit and lack the natural immunity proportion of the population such as South-West, who will therefore reach herd immunity later.

At this point, there are fairly low cases and we need to be thankful for that. The vaccination programme appears to be trying to be as fair as possible within the constraints of going quickly, not wasting vaccines, managing the AZ perception issues, managing local issues of identifying the right people and managing messaging for those who are hesitant. I think we should let testing do the heavy lifting in London and all try to be patient with vaccines, everyone will get their turn.

I am in another part of the UK and over 40. I have not yet been called for a vaccine.

I really don't see why I should be less of a priority over someone in London.

Too many decisions are made only thinking about London. This has been the case for many many years.

Yes we will all have our turn - any prioritisation of London will get flamed. There is generally the impression (correct or incorrect) that London gets more public resources and so if anything maybe politically it's a good thing if London is lagging behind. It's a good narrative that despite London being at higher risk, it's hasn't received any preferential treatment.

Maybe I am cynical, but I think some of us will just end up getting the jabs privately, which I am sure many in London don't mind doing. There are countries where government roll out is working well in tandem to with private sector for covid jabs. Wish they would just open the private market rather than GPs sitting on stock trying to coax the vaccine hesitant.

If people's MILs are all in America, that would speed up getting vaccines to other people, not slow it down.
The French MIL got vaccinated here in the UK. The US woman / UK man are early 40s and were vaccinated in the US, but they'll become an admin issue for their GP soon to confirm their vaccines. I'm admin effort for my old hospital to update me as moved out of borough. My point wasn't that there's one more or less vaccine doses, it's that there are a higher proportion of people where it needs a lot more NHS effort than them booking themselves online and getting jabbed. That effort takes an extra bit of time.

I've said before but from what I've heard the situation varies on an almost hyper local level. Some GP surgeries got ahead, the one 10 minutes up the road is slow.

In my corner of London my surgery was inviting early 40s before Easter (just before the restrictions to moving past groups 1-9 took effect). Maybe they had a batch of vaccine to use up and no one else in groups 1-9 was taking up the offer that week, I don't know. This is a high deprivation area in outer London with a high percentage of migrant and BME population.

@nordica

I've said before but from what I've heard the situation varies on an almost hyper local level. Some GP surgeries got ahead, the one 10 minutes up the road is slow.

In my corner of London my surgery was inviting early 40s before Easter (just before the restrictions to moving past groups 1-9 took effect). Maybe they had a batch of vaccine to use up and no one else in groups 1-9 was taking up the offer that week, I don't know. This is a high deprivation area in outer London with a high percentage of migrant and BME population.

I also know of GPs in south london who are now calling up personal contacts to avoid wasting vaccines due to no shows. A fairer system would have been appreciated - i've called many a GP if a reserve waitlist exists but there isn't one, though the same GPs are providing spares to personal contacts who are under 40!

@Wakeupin2022

I am in another part of the UK and over 40. I have not yet been called for a vaccine.

I really don't see why I should be less of a priority over someone in London.

Too many decisions are made only thinking about London. This has been the case for many many years.

Why should people in London be prioritised? Because they have less protection. Their city has been allowed to continue as an international travel hub during a pandemic. No real quarantine. Frontline of new strains.

I agree @user34254356
The incorrect narrative and politics is probably why Londoners are being put at the back of the queue despite higher risk.

Too many people like @Wakeupin2022 confuse London with Londoners. There's a major difference between giving a workplace (London, the city) money and giving the employees (London residents) money.

London has some of worse deprivation in the whole country. These are the people who will suffer from slower rollouts. People going to foodbanks can't afford private vaccines.

@Wakeupin2022

I am in another part of the UK and over 40. I have not yet been called for a vaccine.

I really don't see why I should be less of a priority over someone in London.

Too many decisions are made only thinking about London. This has been the case for many many years.

exactly this is the reason that London is lagging behind. Even providing the same (proportionally) amount of vaccines to London will be seen as politically unacceptable and reek of bias and preferential treatment.

Think people don't realise that with London lagging behind and being exposed to new variants, these variants will eventually export them to the rest of the country. Maybe an alternative is to keep London in a longer lockdown with no vaccines!

And one of the main reasons for the high level of deprivation is those extra 'resources'. The focus on London as a place to make money has led to the high density overcrowded housing that leads to poor health, underlying conditions, and fast spread of covid. For the type of housing the extra resources have led to, see the thread another poster put up about the Croydon social housing block.

by the way 22% of UK GDP is generated out of London - I haven't verified this figure but that may also be an (economic if not health based) argument to get London out of lockdown permanently?

I'm guessing around May 20th for mine, I'm 40

basing this guess on current vaccination rates and the amount left to do in the 45-49 age group, (that comes out at about 35 days) and my own belief (based on...nothing) that the rate will increase a bit as more Moderna comes into stock and they get used to doing first and second vaccinations in tandem

Well, here's hoping anyway.. fantastic job so far

I agree. It will be (falsely) presented by the media as political bias. The horrible irony is it's the opposite. Londoners loss out twice. Higher risk and less protection from covid (with the prospect of longer lockdowns due to the open borders) AND slower vaccine rollout and less access to vaccines. The mayor, Sadiq Khan knows this and he's been saying it but the government are ignoring him. It shows up the pointless waste of (council tax payers) money that the position of mayor is, really.

I have not seen a report about the second wave yet, but this was about the first wave:

The increased mortality rates in the Northern Powerhouse remains significant even after accounting for deprivation, ethnicity and the age-structure of the population. Figures show austerity simultaneously put the region in a more vulnerable position by reducing health and wellbeing, and cost the UK around £2bn a year in lost productivity, with over £16bn lost since 2011.

The report led by scientists from Newcastle University, the University of Manchester, University of York and University of Liverpool found:

An extra 57.7 more people per 100,000 died in the Northern Powerhouse than the rest of England between March and July and this could cost the UK economy an additional £6.86bn in reduced productivity.
www.thenhsa.co.uk/2020/11/covid-19-report-reveals-massive-hit-to-the-norths-health-and-economy/

Tea no i don't confused London and Londoners & I know there is lots of derpivation in London.

But you are complaining that London is behind because its not offering jabs to over 40s yet. That is true for many places.

But to achieve what you want would mean removing doses from other areas and providing them to London. If these other areas are way ahead in vaccinations then fair enough, but vast majority of areas are still working through the over 45's. Other areas which may be vaccinating younger age groups may have bigger issues with vaccine refusal so jabbing the younger ones is essential to keep others safe. Birmingham for example, may be jabbing youngsters but the actual take up is not brilliant.

In districts such as Newham, in east London, which suffered almost 456 deaths per 100,000 people over the past 12 months — the highest in England and more than twice the national average

www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-30/britain-s-ethnic-vaccine-gap-risks-more-covid-19-cases-deaths-in-deprived-areas

There are areas of deprivation all over the country, cherry-picking areas based on one set of risks requires downplaying of very real risks that other areas face. I think it is very important for everyone in the UK to feel that we are all treated equally and are all coming through this together. I do not think we should prioritise London over other areas and I've heard nobody in my circle in London suggest that, so it isn't even something Londoners are asking for so far as I'm aware.

People outside of London are generally in poorer health.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/lifeexpectancyforlocalareasoftheuk/between2001to2003and2017to2019

jabbing the younger ones is essential to keep others safe

Exactly. London has the highest hesitancy rates in the country.

Yes I think vaccines should be taken from younger people in lower priority areas (not Birmingham).

People in London (and Birmingham) are more vulnerable.

A lethal mix of population density, overcrowded housing, huge amount of deprivation (and poorer health), high hesitancy rates - and the international airports (Birmingham is the other red list airport in England).

People living in London and Birmingham are at higher risk. Their early 40s (and then 30s) should be prioritised.

My sister is 42 and got jabbed yesterday,my brother in law is 40 and is getting jabbed tomorrow,I'm coming up on 45 and my jab is Tuesday.This is in Wales.