45-49s jabs news, 40-44s watching and waiting thread

[MRex]

Follow-on to the happy thread: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4210673-Can-the-40-49-age-group-now-book-their-vaccine.

(I'm jabbed, but just here to read happy news of jabs and try to book DH when it's his time.)

I agree. I worked in Primary Care myself for many years in a previous career.

It gives the message that now the 'priority groups' have been jabbed, we're not a priority!

I got a text not from my GP but from NHSvaccine inviting me to book

@Tealightsandd

Have they opened up to 40+ in the London boroughs with the South African strain? I hope extra supply has been distributed.

I don't think they will do that. I read today that London has now 3.6mn vaccinated. Given the population is about 9.5mn, it seems only circa 35% are vaccinated here which would be lower than the national average?

I think more have been vaccinated at Least 50+

86% is the minimum in one of the age groups. It’s not as good as other regions but at least not as bad as 30%

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/04/COVID-19-weekly-announced-vaccinations-15-April-2021.xlsx

Yes, I think it's been said London is bottom when it's comes to vaccination rate/proportion of population done. Which is concerning seeing as, with Heathrow, it's the frontline for any new strains, like the South African or Indian ones.

I know a lot is down to high hesitancy rates, but earlier in the year Sadiq Khan was complaining about London getting a lower share. That can't have helped.

I thought extra supply would've been sent for the 40s given the situation with the SA strain.

Our London Borough was very slow off the mark. Much improved now but was desperately slow to start with.

@Tealightsandd

Yes, I think it's been said London is bottom when it's comes to vaccination rate/proportion of population done. Which is concerning seeing as, with Heathrow, it's the frontline for any new strains, like the South African or Indian ones.

I know a lot is down to high hesitancy rates, but earlier in the year Sadiq Khan was complaining about London getting a lower share. That can't have helped.

I thought extra supply would've been sent for the 40s given the situation with the SA strain.

I think that the ONS data is off - particularly for London though.

In the 75 - 79 year age group more people than 100% of the ONS estimate have been vaccinated in every region bar London.

I was also reading last night that demand for primary school places in London is down 9% on last year. Thats an extraordinary decline that I just don't see being down to a lower birth rate. It was suggested that people 'forgot' to apply but I'm not buying that either. There has to be an unusual movement of people going on too. Whether that be last year or in the last few years since the ONS last collected data for their estimate. Especially since there seems to be a shift in older populations too.

The suggestion here is that a lot of people may have relocated out of London during / prior to the pandemic either moving abroad (possibly to country of origin) or to take up permanent residence in second properties / relocating out of London permanently.

It could also possibly represent the less permanent nature of living in London (with people renting and not being as easy to contact).

Either way the ONS estimate of where people are living is inaccurate somehow so in view of the primary school applications seeming to echo this, I'm now inclined to take those %s of those vaccinated in London with more of a pinch of salt than i did before. My suspicion is we have vaccinated a higher percentage of people living in London than we believe from the data as a result and the worry about lower take up in London is over stated.

I had my vaccine in group 6 with the national booking service inviting me. More recently I was invited by a hospital in a borough I used to live in, I've asked to be removed from their list but at least in my mind it backs up my assumption that the NIMS list will have duplicates from error not removing all records, as well as gone-aways. Think of those who come for a few years from Australia, NZ, SA, EU etc - are they really going to have cancelled their GP when they go home?

Sorry, posted too soon.

At the same time, there will be a range of people who aren't registered with any GP,l; those who hadn't visited in over 5 years and were removed from the system, more recent immigrants who haven't needed a GP yet etc. London numbers are complicated each way around.

@MRex

I had my vaccine in group 6 with the national booking service inviting me. More recently I was invited by a hospital in a borough I used to live in, I've asked to be removed from their list but at least in my mind it backs up my assumption that the NIMS list will have duplicates from error not removing all records, as well as gone-aways. Think of those who come for a few years from Australia, NZ, SA, EU etc - are they really going to have cancelled their GP when they go home?

Quite.

London is the area of the country most likely to have issues like this because it has a much larger migratory population to begin with.

We do know that there has been a large number of people leaving the UK since 2016 but we dont yet have an exact grasp on how many. Again this is most likely to have affected London figures.

We also know that people have been increasingly priced out of London and that large firms have started to move jobs out of the Capital in recent years too.

It will be interesting to see what conclusions can be drawn about this in the long run. Its almost like a mini census in a way. And i think it rather demonstrates why we need regular censuses for planning etc because of how data becomes dated over a period of time and is not well maintained.

41 here and my 35 year old sister has her jab booked in Wales end this month.
Meanwhile I'm south west and not eligible yet.

Seems like the SW is lagging behind. I thought it would be faster on this age group because of the elderly population. But maybe now that’s stalling things as they have their 2nd jabs.

@RedToothBrush - I agree. An annual census could do just name & DOB, then the full census details every 10 years. I hope they could pick up the summary figures from the latest census by June/ July, but of course not everyone gets covered that way (homeless, hospitals, people who choose not to respond etc).

@MRex

I had my vaccine in group 6 with the national booking service inviting me. More recently I was invited by a hospital in a borough I used to live in, I've asked to be removed from their list but at least in my mind it backs up my assumption that the NIMS list will have duplicates from error not removing all records, as well as gone-aways. Think of those who come for a few years from Australia, NZ, SA, EU etc - are they really going to have cancelled their GP when they go home?

I also know of British citizens residing in Europe who have flown back to get a jab. Similarly lots of families from India stuck with their children in London (they were visiting when the pandemic started). Being unable to travel they have received a jab here.

@DobbyTheHouseElk

Seems like the SW is lagging behind. I thought it would be faster on this age group because of the elderly population. But maybe now that’s stalling things as they have their 2nd jabs.

Points west has been saying 65% of population has been vaccinated already. Many of my work colleagues have been vaccinated (all ages) but at the same time I know many people below 45 still due to be. Guess cuz it’s not nationally opened yet.

@Cheshiresun

Now my GP has put a message on their website saying they will not be calling or texting anyone in Group 10/Phase 2 for appointments, please follow their social media page to book in yourself when the time comes. I know most younger people have social media, but those who don't?

Obviously there are the vaccination centres not run by the PCN's but anyone not proactive and waiting for a call/letter could be missed. I think at least letters are sent from the NHS to book into the Regional Vaccination Centres.

Our GP's website says they would only contact people over 65. Take up is high here though, so they do not need to make an effort.

Wales seem to be ahead, I understand Cardiff are vaccinating 35+. I don’t understand how though as I thought vaccines were allocated to each country proportionately?

@RavingAnnie At our GP surgery. I've also just had Pfizer there this morning. Full of people in their 40s.

My GP surgery hasn't updated their vaccination page since the very start of the roll out to over 80s in December.

They seem to be progressing quickly locally though - SE London.

@nordica

My GP surgery hasn't updated their vaccination page since the very start of the roll out to over 80s in December.

They seem to be progressing quickly locally though - SE London.

SE london here too but sadly my GP isn't rolling out at snail's speed.

Yep friends in SE London have said it's been going slow.

And, really, no most Londoners haven't left. Even with some people who came from elsewhere returning home or moving somewhere else. It's nowhere near as many but even 1million had left, there'd still be 8 million left.

In any case, London being behind is clearly not because a small minority of temporary resident have left. If loads had left, London would've been able to start on the early 40s.

The majority of transient and temporary residents of London are younger. They are not the reason for London's slower vaccination rollout.

The reason is, as I've said before, exactly what Sadiq Khan says.

The sheer numbers of people, the high levels of hesitancy....

...But also having to play catch-up after being given a lower share at the start. No idea if it's still receiving a lower share but you'd think an extra share would be reasonable, given being the frontline of new strains like SA and India because of Heathrow.

My brother, 37 has just had the Pfizer, South Derbyshire.

Now if the claim upthread that so many Londoners have left it's emptied out is correct, why aren't 37 year olds in London getting the jab (as they are in Derbyshire and Wales)? Particularly the boroughs with the SA strain.

Pleased for your brother @Operasinger
It's good to hear some areas areas are getting through the groups. Fingers crossed others can catch up soon.

The majority of transient and temporary residents of London are younger. They are not the reason for London's slower vaccination rollout.

The two London boroughs with the lowest vaccination rates are Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster.

These are also boroughs which have got high percentage of expatriate population from Europe and US (including City/Canary Wharf professionals aged 50+).

Re: size - London is treated as a separate NHS region with the eligible population of 8.17mm people. The total population of the Greater London metro area is indeed 9mm+ but many people living closer to M25 are registered with a non-London GP. 8.17mm is still a lot of people but it is still largely comparable with other regions (e.g. Midlands)