Australia says no to AZ and J&J vaccines--vax rollout likely to be delayed by months

[Kokeshi123]

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/13/australia-wont-buy-johnson-johnsons-one-dose-covid-vaccine-due-to-astrazeneca-similarities

I know quite a lot of Ozzies who are completely stranded outside their country due to the fact that they cannot keep small children within a hotel room for two weeks and pay a fortune for the priviledge. As it is, it's looking like Oz will not be removing its quarantine requirements until well into 2022 at the earliest.

I mean, I do think that a basic strategy of "(1) Hold borders tight with Zero Covid until the vax>(2) Unroll vax> (3) Open borders" is a sound one, but it does depend on the second and third bits of the plan actually happening...

Governments which have suppressed the virus effectively, like Singapore, Korea, China, Australia and so on, are perhaps in a tricky position when it comes to messaging on the vaccine.

The best way to break through vaccine hesitancy in the general public and push public/medical bodies to drive through the vaccine faster would be to level with everyone about how this is going to end: "Listen up, everyone: we are not going stay behind the Plastic Curtain forever, the borders are going to open, quarantine is going to go away, and there will inevitably be some spread of the virus. So, get yourselves vaccinated as quickly as possible, otherwise you are making the choice to risk getting extremely ill at some point."

The trouble is that these governments have basically spent the last year proudly telling their general publics that complete and total suppression of COVID is basically the marker of a competent government. It's not going to be easy for these governments to actually say bluntly that there is going to be some spread of the virus internally because it will result in major loss of face. But until they actually say this out loud, large numbers of people in these countries may refuse the vaccine.

zafferana

Hard agree. I'm hoping more of my Australian friends and relatives stop with the Shadenfreude and start thinking about how they are going to get out of this. And have a bit more compassion on those who are stuck overseas, or who are mourning the loss of relationships.

@Kokeshi123

Governments which have suppressed the virus effectively, like Singapore, Korea, China, Australia and so on, are perhaps in a tricky position when it comes to messaging on the vaccine.

The best way to break through vaccine hesitancy in the general public and push public/medical bodies to drive through the vaccine faster would be to level with everyone about how this is going to end: "Listen up, everyone: we are not going stay behind the Plastic Curtain forever, the borders are going to open, quarantine is going to go away, and there will inevitably be some spread of the virus. So, get yourselves vaccinated as quickly as possible, otherwise you are making the choice to risk getting extremely ill at some point."

The trouble is that these governments have basically spent the last year proudly telling their general publics that complete and total suppression of COVID is basically the marker of a competent government. It's not going to be easy for these governments to actually say bluntly that there is going to be some spread of the virus internally because it will result in major loss of face. But until they actually say this out loud, large numbers of people in these countries may refuse the vaccine.

Hard agree with this, too. If you live in the Lucky Country, (and you're used to denying other people your opportunities) then it's going to take a lot to open yourself up to the risk that you might lose your own.

Great points raised by @Kokeshi123

Governments should be reflecting much harder on the pressure that their COVID suppression strategies are having on their populations. Whether that’s lockdowns or draconian border closures.

Vaccination is the only way out and literally nothing should be more important to them right now. The U.K. seems to have grasped that, even if few other countries have.

@newstart1234

Is the average Australian annoyed about not being able to leave the country? I’m not sure if my perspective is skewed because I’m used to going to another country on a weekly basis, but it’s seems that Australia seems quite calm about the lack of international travel, despite having a high proportion of immigrants. I wonder what will happen to the level of immigration especially from Europe over the next decade.

Yes I’m very annoyed!

I have no family overseas but many of my friends and colleagues have family they can’t see. Then there’s the serious economic consequences of prolonged international border closures.

Plus of course I miss travel

@newstart1234

Is the average Australian annoyed about not being able to leave the country? I’m not sure if my perspective is skewed because I’m used to going to another country on a weekly basis, but it’s seems that Australia seems quite calm about the lack of international travel, despite having a high proportion of immigrants. I wonder what will happen to the level of immigration especially from Europe over the next decade.

Australia is on the opposite end of the world from most countries, so it's more costlier to travel, and takes much longer to get anywhere, so the majority of Aussies haven't left Australia, so travelling is not as much a thing as it is in the UK where you're much closer to other countries. So, I guess, it's 'you don't miss what you've never known/done'. Typically people holiday in Bali or NZ, not much further than that. Because of our remote location - therefore travel costs/time, it's not something we do much, or it's just a pipe dream. So it's not really a concern. Travelling within the country is more a big deal.

And yes, Scomo is hopeless, but he's like Mr Teflon over this. I'm lucky my Premier (Queensland) is keeping us safe.

The hard part is moving from keeping us safe narrative to vaccinated but with risk and some deaths.

The amount would be much lower here but maybe harder if you’ve equated zero and safe and closed borders

Just thinking more about it, we have one of the toughest (if not the toughest) biosecurity/quarantine rules (remember Johnny Depp/Amber Herd and the dogs they smuggled in?) because we are an Island nation and have a delicate ecosystem here. Polio was eradicated throughout the world. Rabies has been eradicated from Australia. I believe there is no reason why Coronavirus cannot be eradicated from Australia (and most of the world). It can be done. We know this from first hand experience. It can be done. I do not agree with the 'live with it' method, and believe eradication should be the goal. Perhaps it helps because we are an Island and so far away from almost all countries.

What happens when the next variant comes along and booster shots or a new vaccine is required? All of the vaccines on the market have been shown to be less effective against the SA strain. Even now people testing positive for covid this year have different symptoms compared to 12 months ago.

Of course it can be eradicated from Oz---it already has been.

Eradicating it from the planet? Good luck with that. Most virologists say it is never going to happen. The only human disease we have ever eradicated was smallpox, and that was possible because smallpox fits a whole bunch of criteria that make it a good candidate for eradication---none of which are true for COVID. And even with smallpox, eradication was still really really hard and took decades.

If your benchmark is zero deaths, it took polio 30+ years to be eradicated from the world. Are you suggesting the border stay shut for that long @CokeDrinker?

In a country where a third of the population were born aboard, and almost 50% have a parent or grandparent overseas, it’s absurd to suggest that the primary driver of outbound overseas travel from Oz is holidays in Bali or Fiji. The reality is that there are huge numbers of people who are terrified about the situation in Australia. It’s been politically unacceptable to voice that until now but hopefully the narrative will start to change as the implications of the Aus Gvt sitting on their hands and bungling the vaccine rollout become clear.

@EileenGC

This is a globalised world and you can’t shut down borders without massive human consequences.

This. Please copy and paste this sentence on every thread where people complain Boris (or their respective country’s leader) didn’t shut the borders indefinitely. People have no idea how difficult and damaging that action is in the 2021 world.

False. It's an irresponsible sentence (and explains why the UK and USA have hundreds of thousands of deaths) and it omits that there is a MASSIVE human consequence to DEATHS from Covid. Um.....DEATH. As I said. You can't travel if you're dead! Individual countries coped decades ago when travel by ship was more common, and now with the advent of internet camera chat technology, we could all cope in a less globalised world. Travel is not important. Sad if you have relatives overseas, sure, but since zoom conferences came into existence, the need to travel is far less.

You can keep it out if Australia - you are already but how long will you sustain closed borders?

The rest of the world part - can you link to any scientist suggesting this is possible

@CokeDrinker

“Travel is not important to me“

Fixed that for you

Sad if you have relatives overseas, sure

This terribly dismissive. There are many people in Australia with relatives overseas that they’ll never see again as a result of these measures.

And no, virtual connection doesn’t even begin to close that gap.

Australia also have a duty of care towards our indigenous people. They have been historically truely awful to them, and I’m hoping that they remember them when they weigh up letting covid in.

It’s the “keeping safe” narrative that is overwhelmingly what the populations in NZ and Australia want. I guess it’ll be a while before this public narrative changes to “living with Covid” instead. Europe and US are already there - but we also had Covid zero voices shouting loudly last year too. They’ve mostly died away now or at least do not get air time. Australia will get there too but they are not ready for this conversation yet imo.
A zero Covid world is a fantasy.

@Tealightsandd

I guess it depends on priorities.

Choice 1: Temporary cut-off, but freedom to travel, work, shop, and socialise domestically, very low number of deaths, no long covid, and a relatively healthy economy.

Versus

Choice 2: Mostly open borders with quarantine largely in name only. With repeated long lockdowns, 150,000 deaths, 1 million+ long covid cases, many jobs lost, and businesses.

I prefer the first.

Well said. We can go out to meals and big dinners at pubs, go to the cinemas, tourist attractions, zoos, etc etc etc. We have a relatively normal life.

The only thing we cannot do, is go overseas. And for most Aussies, that was a pipe dream even before Covid so no one here really cares.

Don’t think the 30% of aussies that were born overseas agree with you cokedrinker. But you’re ok so that’s the main thing eh?!

@Flyornofly

Don’t think the 30% of aussies that were born overseas agree with you cokedrinker. But you’re ok so that’s the main thing eh?!

It's a massive failure of empathy, compassion and imagination - and realistic thinking. I wish there were not such a large number of Australians who felt the same.

I've been pretty disappointed in my compatriots over the years, and the reaction to Covid has not changed my mind.

Cokedrinker that’s not really the only 2 choices available. All the zoos, tourist attractions etc. are open in much of Europe now. Covid is not widespread and hospitals are not overwhelmed. Testing is very very widespread where I am. Most people will test 2-3 times a week, before going to big meeting areas like football stadia or theme parks and testing happens at the boarder. They’ve just said this morning that the re-opening can happen faster than expected because of the low cases. Australia has the position of investigating which measures have been most successful, where, and why and can implement them now. Buy ppe, vaccine, treatments, and any equipment needed. There is no reason to think there would be draconian lockdowns or terrible death tolls if people were allowed to travel (with testing and self imposed quarantine) once the vaccine is rolled out.

We will move to a more normal life here so then Aus can close borders but it would be to avoid flu level of deaths.

We’ll get better treatments due to effort made in many countries and use boosters.

We won’t think of level of deaths any differently to fluctuating flu numbers (10 to 44k in a bad year)

Personally I hope Aus doesn’t shut away in its own bubble to avoid all covid deaths long term.

"They were indeed British backpackers"

I think that must have been backpackers who entered before March 2020 and are still there - afaik they have not been allowed to enter since then! Anyway, that is an aside to a very interesting discussion. I do remember people asking in March 20 how NZ/Aus would ever be able to open up - and 'vaccines' was the answer. But now, given that the Aus Health Minister has indicated that even full vaccination may not be enough to allow free travel, the question is what will be enough?

Vaccination plus 28 day govt quarantine plus major track and trace? I suppose it will ultimately come down to who has the most influential political voice - those who want to see family abroad, or those for whom travel is unimportant. Would a compromise position be - you can travel abroad if you get vaccinated, do govt quarantine, and do daily testing for a month on return? Still precludes many people in practice but it would make it more possible for some.

CokeDrinker I believe the UK is planning to lift all restrictions by some time in June (happy to be corrected.) Australia won’t be able to say ‘look at our freedom while everywhere else is locked down’ for much longer.

Anyway, there has been a shift in attitude of the media and public this week I feel. Morrison is getting major backlash over the shambolic vaccine rollout and there and plenty of us that aren’t prepared to be prevented from leaving the country indefinitely.