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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

988 replies

boys3 · 06/04/2021 16:09

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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104
FreedomFromLockdown · 24/04/2021 08:48

Can someone explain the Indian situation to me. The news are reporting that they are struggling to treat everyone, running out of oxygen etc. Also reporting worst death rates at any time during the pandemic, anywhere in the world.
Having said all that, they reported just over 2k deaths yesterday so roughly double our highest daily report, but have roughly 20 times the population we have.
These numbers don’t seem to make sense when you see the carnage being reported in the Indian hospitals, or it that they still have the worst to come?

MRex · 24/04/2021 09:00

@FreedomFromLockdown - the figures from India aren't remotely accurate at this point, there is limited testing and not all deaths are registered anyway (nor are all births for that matter). Estimates suggest the true figures in December were 5 times the deaths reported (www.itv.com/news/2020-12-09/is-indias-covid-19-death-rate-five-times-higher-than-official-figures-suggest). Now there are constant cremations, looks like it's between 4-11 times the cases and deaths. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/even-record-death-toll-may-hide-extent-of-india-s-covid-crisis, www.reuters.com/world/india/non-stop-cremations-cast-doubt-indias-counting-covid-dead-2021-04-19/.

(Links chosen quickly, so you may need to dig further if they aren't well written.)

KickBishopBrennanUpTheArse · 24/04/2021 09:43

Just reading back to the confirmation of LFD positives - one other explanation is the misrecording of negatives on the app.

A member of my team's teenage son wrongly hit the positive button. His explanation was that he got muddled up because positive means good :)

Another colleague said she nearly did the same when she was registering her test in a hurry. I'm not sure how easy it is to accidentally just hit the wrong button but it could account for a few who didn't bother to follow up because they'd done it by accident.

sirfredfredgeorge · 24/04/2021 09:56

not sure how easy it is to accidentally just hit the wrong button but it could account for a few who didn't bother to follow up because they'd done it by accident

Is there no T&T on LFD positive at all then? In which case the value of LFD testing goes way down, it's even less value for money etc.

sirfredfredgeorge · 24/04/2021 09:59

Where I live in a city most of my social contacts would not be in my MSOA

This would be an argument against clusters, borough testing for VOC's, etc. there are obviously clusters around outbreaks, when Mrex was tracking the flow of kent strain through London, it was specifically possible 'cos most of the transmission was clustered.

MargaretThursday · 24/04/2021 10:03

Yes, wrongly hit could be easily done, especially in a hurry, doing several children before school, and on your phone. However I would think you'd be talking about a handful a day at most.
Whether you would be able to take it off by phoning up, I don't know.

AnyFucker · 24/04/2021 10:07

.

JanFebAnyMonth · 24/04/2021 10:28

Yes I must admit I’ve nearly hit the button for Positive by accident. IMO there should ba a “Are you sure?” Check st that point, because by the time you’ve answered about ten questions automatically (child’s school, NHE number etc etc) you’re just hitting buttons.

But I doubt that would account for that many falsely reported positives. I think it’s possibly not worth taking the LFD figures seriously now, people may still be doing them, but I know my enthusiasm for actually reporting them has waned after the holiday.

JanFebAnyMonth · 24/04/2021 10:29

Sorry for typos!

MRex · 24/04/2021 10:36

Most people will interact across more than one MSOA, but from map watching I would say there tend to be tight connections where there is a lot of interaction between certain linked MSOAs or within certain MSOA; those are the ones where the virus really digs in, with lots of infections following. Local links include transport, hospitals, care homes, shopping centres, workplaces, universities or schools. People travelling across MSOA then spread it further, but the majority of the time during lockdown people haven't been going too far. Regardless, a few cases can come and go without it being an issue, it's the MSOA with lots of cases that are a concern because the probability of undetected cases in those areas goes up.

There are some MSOAs with a lot more deprived areas (particularly with flats) where the Kent variant was better able to spread; and large numbers of cases then always infect neighbouring MSOA, sometimes in specific directions. Kent variant in West London had clear spread starting in Wimbledon that hit several pockets at once (students / pub?)... they each took a little time to diminish and it might have slowed... apart from Malden Manor (tower blocks) where closer proximity and lots of interaction in the local area led to cases rising and rising, massively affecting schools for the first time in the area and spreading further into every neighbouring MSOA, then spreading east right through Croydon and up to Tooting as well as west into Kingston. In Kingston it hit Chessington hard and then spread into Surrey (theme park not open!). Croydon spread steadily south to hit to Sussex coast and the West side of Kent itself that had totally avoided the cases in east Kent, which had instead spread to Essex. Tooting and Croydon together had a gradual spread east to catch up with the variant spreading westwards from Kent itself. You can adjust the dates on the map to watch it from mid November, just stay centred on Malden Manor.

Sorry, I'm not sure if that's helpful to the discussion or just me chattering on.

boys3 · 24/04/2021 19:55

[quote MRex]@boys3, if it isn't a big bother may we have a rerun please of the numbers you did a while ago of MSOA suppressed / number of cases, to see the local spread versus clustering. I have a feeling that I disagree that cases aren't clustered, but I don't have the data to back that up. Also please can you say how many cases are covered by suppressed areas of you look at all the unsuppressed totals? Many thanks[/quote]
@MRex this is from today's release. The dashboard operates the 5 day lag so it is the most up-to-date available. Attached covers the last eight weeks.

Hopefully it makes sense.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021
OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 24/04/2021 20:03

So less and less clustered as proportion of non confirmed LFD's go up - I think that suggests they are not due to being known positives due to close contact.

The 1800 unconfirmed LFD's from the 18th/19th are in that data, and that week is more spread out than previous weeks where a lower proportion of the cases are unconfirmed LFD's.

Given the change from yesterdays data in England, there were no false positives removed from the data between 18th and 22nd, so either there are no false positives, or they've stopped removing them, I think stopped removing them makes more sense, and does explain the high numbers since the 18th.

sirfredfredgeorge · 24/04/2021 20:05

(Sorry obviously we don't know for sure there were none removed, but all the unconfirmed LFD's went to confirmed, so it would only be true if the exact same number of new unconfirmed arrived as were withdrawn as false positives, I disregard this as no-one suddenly remembers to log an LFD from six days ago, and it would be such a coincidence!)

MRex · 24/04/2021 20:11

Thank you @boys3. On the surface looking at maps it looks like fairly even spread of cases with most local authorities a nice light green of low. Interesting to note that 1/3 of cases are suppressed, very low levels evenly spread across the country, no areas at dramatically higher risk. We'd all have been delighted with just 5 cases in our own MSOA not long ago, so it looks very positive.
I'm not just trying not to be wrong, but 70% of MSOA with 1 case and 30% with 5 cases looks like clusters to me, they're just on average very little ones.

Firefliess · 24/04/2021 21:17

Nice chart here showing breakdown of positive cases by type. twitter.com/RP131/status/1385994156980457474?s=19
The numbers of unconfirmed LFTs has gone up a lot in the last week. You can also see from RP131's Twitter charts that most PCR test results are coming through in a day or two currently, so it's not just lag. Whatever we think of the reasons why people might not bother getting a positive LFT confirmed, I can't think of any that only apply to the last week. So I predict a consolidation catch up sometime soon when they compete a matching up exercise and knock some numbers off the days with high numbers of unconfirmed LFTs (also turning some of the PCR only cases into LFT confirmed by PCR)

MRex · 24/04/2021 21:44

In some areas including mine, schools only went back this week, so presumably there could be an LFT backlog of people newly testing this week. I also think PCR tests from SA strain boroughs, are getting prioritised including the additional genome testing time on everyone's test. I agree a bunch will be removed, just thinking of reasons for PCR delay.

sirfredfredgeorge · 24/04/2021 22:08

The numbers of unconfirmed LFTs has gone up a lot in the last week

I doubt anyone logs their LFD more than 2 days late, and if we accept that not a single false positive has appeared between the 16th and 22nd in todays release. That's inconceivable when March had a minimum of 20% of LFD's false positive.

I don't accept there's a delay in PCR's PCR LFD confirmation is timely, the only thing missing is the false positives. I'm sure they're just not being removed, the "we don't want to advertise the false positives" on the dashboards which would have made this obvious is ignored.

boys3 · 24/04/2021 23:25

In terms of MSOAs this is the regional breakdown between suppressed and non suppressed just for the seven days to April 19th.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 24/04/2021 23:42

Finally for MSOAs, again just for the seven days to April 19th, the frequency of case numbers for the non-suppressed areas.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021
OP posts:
MRex · 25/04/2021 06:12

Thanks @boys3, great info and good to see how far the drops have come overall. I love that the top number is 26.

TheSunIsStillShining · 25/04/2021 10:58

IRL data from Hungary.

It's a table showing number of vaccinated with a specific vacc, number who got infected and no of ppl who died. Last 2 as % too.
Official HU gov data.

Caveats

  • this is a gov propaganda piece as a reply to left wing (?) anti-vaxers
  • There is quite a huge pressure to make sure that anything coming from Russia is good, but west is not as good. I don't know how it factors into these numbers, but the tendency has been very obvious to do this for years now.
  • It doesn't classify infected or hospitalized.
  • it doesn't even say what methodology was used to assess infected.
  • This would not hold up in a proper scientific paper. But it is good to give a general sense of how well these vaccines are doing, and as long as there is a correlation with int'l numbers coming from other parts of the world it is safe to say that they have a truth/real life base.
  • died: as of covid, not just died and had covid by chance.

+1: In HU Pf. has been given to the utmost vulnerable mostly, so the infection/death numbers are being slightly skewed by that.

TheSunIsStillShining · 25/04/2021 10:59

.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021
boys3 · 25/04/2021 12:47

@MRex

Thanks *@boys3*, great info and good to see how far the drops have come overall. I love that the top number is 26.
Selby Town apparently is the MSOA with the 26 figure in the most recent weej

Looking back at the 7 days to 1st March 8 MSOAs recorded exactly 26 cases including the delightfully named Wardleworth & Newbold Brow. In the most recent 7 days 8 MSOAs also with more than 20 cases as compared with 171 eight weeks ago. not quite sure where my fixation with the number eight has suddenly come from

Here's the case frequency table comparing the two by region and overall.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 25/04/2021 12:55

and whilst not wishing to become too obsessed with MSOA numbers these are, for the most recent week, the council areas with every one of their MSOAs being suppressed.

Cheltenham
Derbyshire Dales
East Devon
Folkestone and Hythe
Forest of Dean
Fylde
Hambleton
Hastings
Maldon
Malvern Hills
North Devon
Ribble Valley
Rochford
Rushmoor
South Hams
South Norfolk
South Oxfordshire
Tandridge
West Devon

there are then 42 with just a single non-suppressed MSOA

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