Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I would say first you need to decide if you should stay or you should go, in general the risk from the virus will be less if you stay, less if you use your private car than the plane - however I assume you actually need a ferry and hotel too for the car? In which case I imagine the ferry/flying are similar risks of covid. Flying is likely less risk overall (ie your risk of the car accident almost certainly higher than any of the covid / vaccination timing risks here)

If your reason for travel is compelling, and I assume it is - I would travel, and I would choose flying. I do not think your personal covid risks are not high enough to make a behavioural change.

Sun, how confident are you that you will be able to get the RNA vaccine if you travel to your parents? Is there a risk you may have to wait for a while before you get the first shot?

I would personally go for (C) but not because of the risks - travelling to get vaccinated in a different country is a major hassle. Once UK moves to vaccinating younger population, you are much more likely to get the RNA vaccine with that cohort.

Ah sorry, yes I realise you're only travelling for vaccination, in that case I do not believe there's a compelling reason for the travel, I would stay.

D. Just make an appointment at a different place in UK and go there, no need to make a drama out of it.

It partly depends on how widespread the virus is in each location sun. If you’re currently in the Isle of Man and your parents are in Paris then you should stay put and wait. If you’re in Bosnia and travelling to UK then that would probably be the safer option if the UK would let you in.

@sirfredfredgeorge
the plan would be to take coffee/water/food and sleep in the car. done this before, nothing new. Either I transit a country or I need to quarantine, so no option really.
not ferry, but eurotunnel - same difference, just shorter time to cross.

Thank you for the answers, still haven't fully decided. The one piece of information that I need to decide is the only missing part: how confident am I that there will be mRNA vaccs in this country in the near future for everyone who wants one.... I can only rely on news articles which I don't consider to be facts necessarily.

@MRex
I'd call this a dilemma, not a drama...
but it is not data driven, so thanks for the answers and let's move on.

Could you not have the AZ vaccination and have a private test for ABs in due course to check?

Positive cases 2,963 / deaths 4

Last Monday - 3,568 / 13

@oneglassandpuzzled

Could you not have the AZ vaccination and have a private test for ABs in due course to check?

it's only partially about the AB. I am hesitant because of these types potentially causing flare ups + if I get AZ and it is only moderately effective I have lost my one slot of getting vaccinated. Leaving me in a very unpleasant situation of being vaccinated and but not really being covered.

but as I said, let's move on, no more drama :)

Our local authority figures for yesterday show as many new cases in one day as the previous week combined. Six days on from the reopening of non essential retails and outdoor hospitality? Or just the night before schools go back and pupils being tested? It's the highest daily figure here since before the schools broke up for the Easter break, so possibly the latter.

@LunarSea

Our local authority figures for yesterday show as many new cases in one day as the previous week combined. Six days on from the reopening of non essential retails and outdoor hospitality? Or just the night before schools go back and pupils being tested? It's the highest daily figure here since before the schools broke up for the Easter break, so possibly the latter.

We noticed the same, a 366% increase, although from a very low level..... but will be watching closely to see if it is just a blip or a trend.

No coincidence in Boris cancelling his India trip and a couple of hours later the country goes on the red list (just heard latter on R4)

Would think those jumps are from testing pre-school return in those places where school holidays only ended yesterday.

We oddly had a very minor increase last week though schools are back here this week, and cases back down again this week.

Has anyone seen more info on the new covid tests? I found this from BBC reporting Hancock, but Google isn't helping me find any more:
"A new Covid test is being developed that can identify whether a positive result is of a known variant - this could reduce the time taken to identify new unknown variants, Hancock said"

I guess as we open up more we may need to tolerate rising case numbers. The acid test will be whether deaths and hospitalisations also rise. I am optimistic that they won’t and we will be able to continue on the roadmap.

@MRex

We oddly had a very minor increase last week though schools are back here this week, and cases back down again this week.

Has anyone seen more info on the new covid tests? I found this from BBC reporting Hancock, but Google isn't helping me find any more:
"A new Covid test is being developed that can identify whether a positive result is of a known variant - this could reduce the time taken to identify new unknown variants, Hancock said"

This article has a bit more detail www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/matt-hancock-health-secretary-nhs-european-south-african-b925441.html

It's difficult to tell with the false positives disappearing from LFD's now (not that that is a bad thing of course) but it seems to me that the proportion of positive tests that are LFD is going up even as everything continues to drop - even PCR confirmed ones.

If so - do we think this is all very good news, there really are less people with symptoms about (implying cases have dropped more, as we're now simply picking up more people we wouldn't've before) or is it possibly bad news in that people are not bothering with a PCR and are only testing with the easily available LFD's - which means we're actually under-reporting now and people are out after their false negatives from the LFD?

The rate in our area would seem to be undulating very gently. I just looked at Covid messenger and was disappointed to see the rate had gone up, but then realised the daily rate had gone up by one and the weekly rate by three. The actual numbers are very small with very few deaths now.

The other slightly strange thing I've noticed, is that lots of the recent cases in south west london boroughs and neighbouring places like elmbridge seem to be in the over 80's, without any corresponding previous rise outside - is there anything reported on that, can't be a single care home outbreak if it's across multiple boroughs can it?

@sirfredfredgeorge

It's difficult to tell with the false positives disappearing from LFD's now (not that that is a bad thing of course) but it seems to me that the proportion of positive tests that are LFD is going up even as everything continues to drop - even PCR confirmed ones.

If so - do we think this is all very good news, there really are less people with symptoms about (implying cases have dropped more, as we're now simply picking up more people we wouldn't've before) or is it possibly bad news in that people are not bothering with a PCR and are only testing with the easily available LFD's - which means we're actually under-reporting now and people are out after their false negatives from the LFD?

I’m optimistic that it’s because so many people are testing now through LFT that we’ve picked up a lot of asymptomatic cases and broken the chain. Our local groups are full of people talking about the testing kits and sharing details of how to get them, most of my colleagues have ordered some and we saw several people carrying the kits when in Carnaby st/Soho area (presumably they picked them up from a pharmacy/got them posted to work).

Also - now that the most vulnerable have been vaccinated - wouldn’t we expect a higher percentage of people to have it asymptomatically/milder - we’re left with unvaccinated younger/healthier people to catch it and vaccinated elder/less healthy people both of which are more likely to be asymptomatic than in say December/January

@sirfredfredgeorge

It's difficult to tell with the false positives disappearing from LFD's now (not that that is a bad thing of course) but it seems to me that the proportion of positive tests that are LFD is going up even as everything continues to drop - even PCR confirmed ones.

If so - do we think this is all very good news, there really are less people with symptoms about (implying cases have dropped more, as we're now simply picking up more people we wouldn't've before) or is it possibly bad news in that people are not bothering with a PCR and are only testing with the easily available LFD's - which means we're actually under-reporting now and people are out after their false negatives from the LFD?

Has anyone had a LFD positive?

I'd be interested to know if the email/text encourages you to do a PCR afterwards. And how much it encourages you-does it say "you may like to..." or does it say "you should"?

Does anyone else find it a little bit ridiculous that you enter your test including the result and then get a text and email telling you that you are negative? I understand if it's positive to tell you what you should be doing, but negative.

I would expect the LFDs to increase at this point with schools going back, simply that a lot of people haven't done them over the holidays, so simply if it's the same proportion of more tests, then you will get more positive results.
My dc didn't do any last week as they hadn't been anywhere for the previous 10 days, and then started again this morning.

I think you're right though. I suspect there will be people who will think that they're feeling a bit chesty/minor temperature and think they'll just do a LFD test and take it as gospel.

What would be useful to know is why people get false positives. Because if it's just "occasionally they go wrong", then maybe a quick check would be to take a second test, and if that's also positive then it's unlikely to both be incorrect. However if it's because of another reason then maybe one false positive would mean a second one was far more likely.

I'm interested in the death reporting on the dashboard. UK: 4, East Midlands: 5, London 5, Yorkshire and The Humber: 5.

Surely the dashboard is aimed at Jo Public and therefore would be better if it were at least logical.

Oops, typo. Yorkshire and The Humber: 2.

I don't think they'd better let me loose on the dashboard.

@amicissimma

I'm interested in the death reporting on the dashboard. UK: 4, East Midlands: 5, London 5, Yorkshire and The Humber: 5.

Surely the dashboard is aimed at Jo Public and therefore would be better if it were at least logical.

Well, it was over Easter. There's some historical significance in lowering the numbers of deaths over that period.