Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

The variant update is out. It doesn't look concerning. The Kent variant still accounts for 99% of all variants found. The South African and Nigerian strain haven't increased further. The India variant has now appeared in lowish numbers, but I think maybe one to watch.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data

77 is quite a lot for one week, but it's good to see it's on there. Terrifying that this is 23% of the identified cases, very little genome testing in India still then.

Thanks @lonelyplanet

Nice graphic here on the variants of concern (much easier to see what's going on than the rather impenetrable government report) twitter.com/TheGazmanRants/status/1382708727481036804?s=19

Yes it looks good - despite all the surge testing in the news it looks as if none of the variants are increasing as a proportion of all tests that are sequenced - so presumably falling in line with the normal strain.

@Firefliess

Blood clots aren't the main way of dying from Covid though aren't they? They are not even the main way. Let alone the most likely way in which your life could be damaged by a 1-6 week illness from which over a million people are still suffering.

Actually there have been a lot, 1 in 6 hospitalised have had blood clots. Not this type though, thankfully this type is very rare (but even rarer with a vaccine).

Slight anecdote detail on the surge testing but I really hope lessons are learnt from how it’s being done in Wandsworth. I shouldn’t be but I am really shocked at how badly organised it is. There is a thread by the tooting MP on it on Twitter which matches what everyone I know has experienced.

A belated thanks for the response on antibodies yesterday @MRex. PHE data today looks good

Lambeth seems reasonable given the pressure at short notice. Big queues but fast moving, lots of test kits being handed out to take home and of course the home postal kits are freely available.

Hmmm. Just been invited for a vaccine in a borough I haven't lived in for 4 years, but via a hospital connection from 12 years ago. Perhaps some records are out of date. DH suitably irritated that I've now had another invite when he hadn't had any.

Dr Marinho calculated the excess of deaths by unspecified acute respiratory syndrome during the pandemic, and found that there were 10 times more deaths by unexplained respiratory syndrome than in previous years. By adding these numbers, she estimates that the virus in fact killed 2,060 children under nine years old, including 1,302 babies

Unfortunately we don't have the data to hand to do a similar look, but for the last year, under 24 year old deaths from all causes are well down, there has been an increase since feb, but this is pretty much opposite to the over 85's increase.

I think it's reasonable to assume that over 85 excess deaths strongly correlates to covid prevalence, so if under 24 year olds were dying due to covid then we'd see excess deaths in the young age groups at the same time - perhaps slightly adjusted due to different timing of infection (likely they'd be before you'd assume?)

Whereas the ONS excess deaths stats show no such correlation, excess deaths in the under 24 age group has been consistently negative almost all the time until mid feb, and particularly low in the weeks before Christmas at the peak of school outbreaks - app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

So I think we can say that there's no appreciable hidden deaths from covid in the UK in children. So if the impact is real, it's either something about Brazilian variants or something about the conditions which have caused it (such as lack of care of other respiratory diseases due to stressed healthcare etc.)

Sorry, I forgot to be clear that I think Brazilian healthcare being over-stretched will have led to many of those deaths and I wouldn't see it as comparable to here. It's worth being aware of however for a few reasons:

1. there will really be some small number of UK child deaths if we don't vaccinate children, even if a much low number, something that's not often talked about
2. parents should be aware covid is not always mild and seek help as needed
3. most countries aren't like the UK, and the outcomes elsewhere may accordingly be worse like in Brazil if infections take hold; sadly it looks like vaccine fears are now in full swing in Africa: <a class="break-all" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/14/world/europe/western-vaccines-africa-hesitancy.html#click=t.co/Q64zeglQy4" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.nytimes.com/2021/04/14/world/europe/western-vaccines-africa-hesitancy.html#click=t.co/Q64zeglQy4.

TheSunIsStillShining I have auto immune disease and had the AZ. I am on a study and had no antibody response after 6 weeks but was positive for antibodies at ten weeks. You can get a test via zoom doctor for around £60.

I came across this article about vaccine effectiveness in auto immune disease and it's quite interesting. The suggestion seems to be that it's not the disease so much as which drug you take that affects response. In particular steroids such as prednisolone seemed to be linked with reduced antibodies even at a low dose. Could explain my response, though the study used Pfizer /moderna

@Boph do you take immune suppressants?
I have two autoimmunes but don't take suppressants.

I'm tempted to have an antibody test but don't know if I want the disappointment of a negative result

@Boph
Thanks, found this also - well, the study anyway.
It is actually quite a good result, no denying that.
I still have 2 open questions that are not answered by science:

• diminished response - how diminished in ppl who are in remission? Is it diminished even? All studies focus (rightly) on active flare and biological/other treatment types. I'm not even sure that having an autoimmune condition necessarily affects response. given how ppl with ant autoimmune condition (in remission or not) were excluded from trials we don't know.
• in Italy they started a follow up study of IBD patients and it seems that there is a correlation between flare ups and diff vaccines. But it's too early and not wide enough. it's just enough info for EU to err on the side of caution and say that these ppl should get mrna. no harm in that.

I think when we have a small-ish number (~650k) population who would potentially benefit from having a more efficient vacc, then they should be identified and given that. UK has ordered 57m of P and M. Surely the 1.2m could fit into it....

@Boph
can I ask how good was your immune response? And what medication you are on? (if not too nosey q.)

www.itv.com/news/utv/2021-04-15/close-contacts-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-to-be-tested?fbclid=IwAR3MgHheRxdVb8lCJf0KRwoZsPWk1CyqMGbxICxEWgeYvP1aZbY4vofmU2U
NI to start PCR testing close contacts of positive cases within first 48 hours. (No mention of a negative ending isolation or anything)

@TheSunIsStillShining I am on hydroxychloroquine, sulphasalazine and prednisolone, so not hugely immunosuppressive. I don't know how good my immune response was except that I have antibodies. I have my 2nd dose next week and will be having monthly antibody tests at least until August. Good point that they didn't test on immunosuppressed. I volunteered for everything I could but mostly they want young healthy people. They are recruiting near me for over 50s who have had one dose for a mixed vaccine trial. I tried to volunteer for it yesterday but they don't want me.
Frankly I am grateful for whatever they will stick in my arm.

@sirfred I think we can be pretty sure from looking at the excess deaths in the UK that children haven't been dying from Covid in anything like the same numbers as over 85s, though a few hundred deaths wouldn't be spotable in overall data like that. I don't think it's likely that there have been all that many children die though - apart from the first few months last spring, testing has been widely available in the UK so they'd be recorded correctly as Covid deaths, and we know there have been very few young children die from Covid. It's possible that the Brazilian strain is different though, or that children have been protected (like everyone) by the lockdown and more of them will catch it once we open up normally.

@JanFebAnyMonth

www.itv.com/news/utv/2021-04-15/close-contacts-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-to-be-tested?fbclid=IwAR3MgHheRxdVb8lCJf0KRwoZsPWk1CyqMGbxICxEWgeYvP1aZbY4vofmU2U NI to start PCR testing close contacts of positive cases within first 48 hours. (No mention of a negative ending isolation or anything)

Hmm. I suspect those taking them will then assume all is well if they get a negative regardless of what the rules are. This could backfire IMO as these people could easily get ill further down the line

You could be right, but it depends on the messaging and on the isolation support/checks? Don’t know if NI have been any better than us on either of those counts.

Sounds like a good idea to me to test all close contacts after 48 hours because they themselves will have other contacts - so it will be possible to contact them sooner. Agree that you'd still need careful messaging about incubation periods

It doesn’t say so in the article but I also wondered if it was to help test (more/quicker) for variants

Scientific opinions on the paper yesterday with CVT risks of vivid 100* base level at 39/million and Pfizer/Moderna risk 4/million, noting the Oxford AZ risk at 5/million: www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-looking-at-incidence-of-rare-cerebral-venous-thrombosis-cvt-following-covid-19-infection-compared-to-incidence-after-vaccination-or-influenza/.

Doesn't say much that's new, but importantly nobody challenging the findings.

@JanFebAnyMonth

www.itv.com/news/utv/2021-04-15/close-contacts-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-to-be-tested?fbclid=IwAR3MgHheRxdVb8lCJf0KRwoZsPWk1CyqMGbxICxEWgeYvP1aZbY4vofmU2U NI to start PCR testing close contacts of positive cases within first 48 hours. (No mention of a negative ending isolation or anything)

My immediate thought was that they think the incubation period has changed. NI is mostly Kent Variant I think? Starting at 48 hours means they think it's quicker, so possibly looking to see if there can be a reduction in the 10 days quarantine. I thought that went badly for France, and surely opens the door to a variant with annoyingly longer infectious period, but we'll see.

I guess that depends whether you think your household contacts may have caught it from their ill family member, or whether there's a possibility that they and their family member may both have caught it at the same time from a third party? Given what we know about some people being super spreaders and most infecting noone, that would seem a possibility worth considering.

But if they had caught it off their family member, that would most likely be in the day or so before symptoms, so 3 days before testing, and they may have detectable virus levels a day or so before developing symptoms themselves. I wonder too if they think it's most useful to try to identify people before they develop symptoms, so that they can alter their behaviour - whether that's taking more care not to spread it within the household, or better compliance with rules about isolation?

It seems that if you’re a close contact of a positive case in ROI you need to get a PCR test regardless of symptoms/none. I suspect NI is bringing their testing of close contacts in line with ROI to enable cross-border travel, as I understand it currently residents of ROI can enter NI, but NI residents can’t enter ROI

www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/if-you-are-a-close-contact.html