I think it’s all a very complex puzzle and one that few people know the full picture of. That’s why it’s hard for us to understand why certain things are happening and some of it seems frustrating.
Decisions are made based on supply into the future, plus the fact that it’s all complicated by needing to ensure 2nd doses are available at the right time.
It’s true, that decisions made today and decisions to give doses to 1st jab patients or 2nd jab patients today, impact what we have to be able to do and deliver in 10-12 weeks time. Those decisions for today have to be based on what is expected to be available in 10-12 weeks.
The pulling forward of 2nd doses to now and bringing them to 8 weeks plus rather than giving those doses to the under 50s, makes me think they know supply in 10-12 weeks won’t be great. They can manage that by ensuring they aren’t needing to give loads of 2nd doses in 10-12 weeks and the way to manage that is to not give loads of 1st doses now. 2nd dose people being finished off have no further requirement in another 10-12 weeks. It makes sense.
It’s why GPs are other vaccine providers really do need to follow the instructions even if it’s frustrating. They might feel they’d like to give the jab to under 50s, when the mop-up of over 50s isn’t generating enough people, and they might prefer to jab more people with 1st doses than use them up on 2nd doses people who already have some protection, but it’s about ensuring supply for the right jabs and people in 12 weeks too and a bigger picture, that individual vaccine centres cannot always see.
I agree that if GPs are told not to jab under 50s and then give substantial doses to those groups instead of to the brought forward 2nd dose people, in 10-12 weeks there could be problems. Those upper 40s won’t be glad to find there isn’t enough vaccine for their 2nd dose then, if that is a result if some GPs doing their own thing.
For us an individuals just thinking about wanting it done ASAP, plus for individual vaccine providers who have lots of volunteers and a zeal to jab as many people as possible and keep rolling out, it’s hard if not impossible to see the bigger picture. We don’t all know and cannot all be told the exact vaccine supplies into the future. Even those in charge face fairly short term changes that they have to adjust to. And they have to be cautious and plan for worst case scenarios ensuring they don’t give too many 1st jabs and result in there not being enough for 2nd jabs a few weeks later.