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Original poster

Probability of dying of Covid versus vaccine

123 replies

Dustyboots · 03/04/2021 00:11

If I was to multiply the probability of catching Covid first by the probability of dying from it - I wonder what that would be. Is there a way to do that?

The probability of dying from the vaccine (due to blood clots) is very low - but perhaps it's just as low from Covid too. At the moment people are considering the chances of dying from Covid without considering that we won't all definitely get it.

With the vaccine - you'll definitely get it, so you can't rule that out (unless you choose not to of course)

OP posts:
vodkaredbullgirl · 03/04/2021 00:16

Not had covid, tested weekly for work and now had the vaccine.

Firefliess · 03/04/2021 00:22

BBC News - Covid-19: Seven UK blood clot deaths after AstraZeneca vaccine
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56620646
This works out the odds of dying from it if you catch it for you. The odds of catching it are harder to know as that depends what happens to case rates over the next few years. But about 20% of people have caught it over the last year, so maybe a 10% chance over the next year if you're not vaccinated? That would pull the odds on both catching it and dying from it down to 250 out of 2.5m if you're 40. Compared with 7 out of 2.5m dying from blood clots (which may or may not have been caused by the vaccine, it still seems a bit unclear) . Blood clot risks might be a bit higher if you're a woman, and Covid risks a bit lower, but the vaccine is probably still the safer option.

CovoidOfAllHumanity · 03/04/2021 00:28

You are right of course but I think it's not an easy calculation to make

It's a classic prisoners dilemma:
The safest thing is for you not to have the vaccine but everyone else to have it
The unsafest thing is if everyone decides to have it
Unfortunately you cannot control other people's choices

Your own risk is going to depend on the level of the virus circulating in your area at the time and your exposure to that so your individual risk will be a very dynamic thing that can change a lot within a short space of time based on your own behaviour but also that of others.

The risk might plausibly outweigh the benefits of vaccination if cases are low but within a couple of weeks of a 3rd wave starting it would shoot up.

The probability of dying from COVID if you catch it vs the probability of dying from the rare vaccine side effect is 1000 times more likely you'd die of COVID than the vaccine side effect so you'd have to be really unlikely to catch it to change those probabilities around I think.

I can't see any way you are not better off having it given how the risks can change. As lockdown measures ease cases will almost certainly go up so your chances of catching it will go up.

partyatthepalace · 03/04/2021 03:27

We all need to have the vaccine to reduce the spread, reduce the chances of mutation and get the country off its economic knees.

It is not about your personal risk OP. Don’t be a selfish dick - have the vaccine. The chances of side effects are time.

avamiah · 03/04/2021 03:35

My mum is 84 , 85 in a few months and had her second vaccination last week and has been great, no side effects at all apart from being more tired but that passed after 2 days .
This is something we all must get .

Jenasaurus · 03/04/2021 06:10

@avamiah

My mum is 84 , 85 in a few months and had her second vaccination last week and has been great, no side effects at all apart from being more tired but that passed after 2 days . This is something we all must get .
I have also had my 2nd AZ vaccine 2 days ago and no side effects really apart from a bit of a sore arm, I am 56 and the report is that the clots were more likely in younger females, especially those on the pill so I dont think myself or your mum come into that category.
Formulation123 · 03/04/2021 07:46

I don’t think I would die if I caught it but I know a few people who have felt ill (like the flu) for over a week. My theory if the jab effects last 1-2 days and you have two doses thats 4 days vs 7-10 days with flu symptoms.

I have had all other jabs and make medication for a living so quite comfortable with the risk vs side effects if I can read the dossier / PIL etc

bumbleymummy · 03/04/2021 07:51

Not everyone is weighing up the risk of one vs the other to make a decision. Personally, I’m not afraid of covid. I do things on a daily basis that have a much higher risk of death. I don’t usually have vaccines for things that are incredibly unlikely to do me any harm.

I’m not overly bothered by accusations of being selfish either. If I catch it and recover I’m also contributing to herd immunity. And I’m not any more of a risk to people than the millions of unvaccinated children or the people for whom the vaccine didn’t work.

OpheliasCrayon · 03/04/2021 07:51

I've had covid which was very mild and I did not die
I have severe drug reactions and therefore for me the risk of the vaccine is absolutely collossal and way more than catching covid. I would still think that even if I hadn't had covid and didn't know I'd got it mildly. I also have a blood clotting disorder that contributed to a stillbirth so that is also on my mind ( but to be honest, I would have the vaccine if that was my only risk factor. ))

But as others have said it's not about your risk factors - if you can have the vaccine you should...herd immunity takes about 80% of people to have antibodies and we aren't there yet.

I would say people like me who can't have it and ate CEV need you to have it , but I won't inclide myself because I've chosen to completely ignore being CEV the whole time and it doesn't bother me that I'm not vaccinated. However I work with vulnerable children who also can't be vaccinated and am very much bothered for them... So I think we should stop all this trying to calculate risk from stuff thats am absolutely minute chance of happening and just get vaccinated if we can ... For those who can't

Motorina · 03/04/2021 07:54

Approximately 60% of the adult population have had one dose of the vaccine. 10% have had two.

7 people have died of clots.

Assuming all the clots are caused by the jab, if that trend continues we’d expect another 4 deaths total from dose one, and another 9 from dose two. 20 deaths total.

I suspect more people die annually from rogue beach ball injuries.

We’ve had around 125,000 deaths from covid.

StealthPolarBear · 03/04/2021 07:54

Probability of getting it depends on prevalence ie how many other people also have it! So by getting that vaccine you're reducing your chance and the chance of others of getting it.

Silverfly · 03/04/2021 07:55

In the UK, I believe that approx 35m vaccines have been given and there have been 7 deaths from blood clots. So that's a probability of 0.00002%.

I believe the chance of dying from covid if you've caught it is around 1%. So maybe 0.2% if you assume a 20% chance of catching it? (I've guessed the 20% - it's not based on anything particular).

So that's my not-very-scientific estimate - 10000 times more likely to die from covid. But of course that's age related - will be higher than that if you're elderly and lower if you're young.

BoKatan · 03/04/2021 07:56

"partyatthepalace

We all need to have the vaccine to reduce the spread, reduce the chances of mutation and get the country off its economic knees.

It is not about your personal risk OP. Don’t be a selfish dick - have the vaccine. The chances of side effects are time."

I've had my first AZ vaccine so I'm clearly not an anti vaxxer, but I think this is a terrible argument.

It's really not selfish for someone to be concerned that for them, personally, there is a possibility that the cure maybe more deadly than the disease. I'm certainly not willing to die for the sake of the economy, or someone else's granny, and I don't know many people who would. The OP has a valid concern, even if it does play out eventually that there is no causality.

bumbleymummy · 03/04/2021 07:57

@Silverfly case fatality rate differs by age. For younger groups with no underlying conditions it’s much less than 1%

Silverfly · 03/04/2021 07:58

Yes bumbleymummy - as I stated in my post.

Temp023 · 03/04/2021 08:00

If you get the vaccine then you will not be in the position of catching Covid at some later date, having it multiply in your cells so some random mutation slips in. Making a new variant that is every so slightly more virulent, ever so slightly more dangerous; which you then spread to somebody else who has not had the vaccine, for whatever reason. And the virus particles get into their cells.. and mutate a tiny bit more and so on. Till hey presto.. a new version of the virus that is different enough to bypass the vaccine and put us all back to square one!

JUST HAVE THE BLOODY VACCINE!

GrapeLipBalm · 03/04/2021 08:01

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56620646

So, the real question is: Are the risks worth the benefits?

Even if the vaccine was the cause, and this is still not proven, the numbers suggest around one death in every 2.5 million people vaccinated

However, this has to be weighed against the known threat posed by coronavirus

*If 2.5 million 60-year-old people caught coronavirus then around 50,000 would die. If they were all 40-year-olds then around 2,500 would die.

MumofPsuedoAdult · 03/04/2021 08:03

@partyatthepalace

We all need to have the vaccine to reduce the spread, reduce the chances of mutation and get the country off its economic knees.

It is not about your personal risk OP. Don’t be a selfish dick - have the vaccine. The chances of side effects are time.

There are many people who (for various reasons) have concerns. Calling someone who doesn't agree with your view a 'selfish dick' is neither helpful nor productive. You can't bully someone into submission.
MumofPsuedoAdult · 03/04/2021 08:07

OP if helps your thinking...I was never worried about catching Covid until the prevalence of long Covid became better known. Dying of Covid is not my concern...living for (potentially) years with long Covid sounds like hell, and for me...there are more unknowns there. That was my (totally unscientific) rationale.

Kljnmw3459 · 03/04/2021 08:08

I thought it's enough for 70% of the population to be vaccinated and so soon enough this won't even be an issue anymore.

palapenojopper · 03/04/2021 08:12

@Motorina

Approximately 60% of the adult population have had one dose of the vaccine. 10% have had two.

7 people have died of clots.

Assuming all the clots are caused by the jab, if that trend continues we’d expect another 4 deaths total from dose one, and another 9 from dose two. 20 deaths total.

I suspect more people die annually from rogue beach ball injuries.

We’ve had around 125,000 deaths from covid.

This.

Have the jab. It's very very safe.

Temp023 · 03/04/2021 08:15

Nope, if you can safely have the vaccine and you don’t have the vaccine, then you ARE a selfish dick!
This is not just a personal decision, your actions are affecting all of us, time to shape up and join the human race!

BluebellsGreenbells · 03/04/2021 08:17

We’ve had around 125,000 deaths from covid

True but that is with harsh lockdowns social distancing and masks hand washing etc

Once a lot of people are vaccinated those things will quickly drop.

80% heard immunity leaves 13,000,000 people unvaccinated. Some who will be children, some who can’t have it.

The risks will increase as society opens up and travel is allowed again.

bumbleymummy · 03/04/2021 08:18

@Kljnmw3459

I thought it's enough for 70% of the population to be vaccinated and so soon enough this won't even be an issue anymore.
I think the range that has been given is 50-80% immune - either from vaccination or after recovery from infection. The ONS survey found that over 50% of people in the U.K. have antibodies (more could still be immune) so we’re at the lower end of that already.
Temp023 · 03/04/2021 08:19

And are you really waiting to be one of the 30% that don’t have it?
“There is a perceived risk for the other 70% so I’ll let them take that risk, then I’ll rely on their herd immunity, but I won’t have to “risk” the vaccine myself! “
I think this is as good a definition of “selfish dick” as I have ever come across!