Probability of dying of Covid versus vaccine

[Dustyboots]

If I was to multiply the probability of catching Covid first by the probability of dying from it - I wonder what that would be. Is there a way to do that?

The probability of dying from the vaccine (due to blood clots) is very low - but perhaps it's just as low from Covid too. At the moment people are considering the chances of dying from Covid without considering that we won't all definitely get it.

With the vaccine - you'll definitely get it, so you can't rule that out (unless you choose not to of course)

@Soontobe60

I hear what you're saying, but what you mean is the evidence isn't conclusive.

Personally, from what I've read and understand now, the vaccine is likely to be responsible. Greinacher believes it is triggering an autoimmune response. It may be the same one that the virus itself triggers in some people - if it is, then those few affected by the vaccine are in the highly vulnerable group anyway.

Weigh all the factors and it's still a no-brainer as far as risk goes - the vaccine is very much lower risk than the threat of the virus.

@bumbleymummy Thanks.

To all the people thinking that there will be antibodies after the vaccine...

"Many antibody tests detect a type of protein in the SARS-CoV-2 virus called the N-protein. This protein is not found in most COVID-19 vaccines. So even after having a COVID-19 vaccine, in most cases there will not be an antibody response against the N protein, and an antibody test will be negative."

@doublehalo

@bumbleymummy Thanks.

To all the people thinking that there will be antibodies after the vaccine...

"Many antibody tests detect a type of protein in the SARS-CoV-2 virus called the N-protein. This protein is not found in most COVID-19 vaccines. So even after having a COVID-19 vaccine, in most cases there will not be an antibody response against the N protein, and an antibody test will be negative."

I think you know this, but your post is unclear.

There WILL be antibodies, at least for a while, they just won't show on every antibody test.

Many tests these days will tell you separately whether you have infection or vaccine induced antibodies.

OP, if a person develops a blood clot as a result of the vaccine, what are the chances that they would develop the same blood clot if infected with the Covid virus? Doctors treating Covid patients said that it was a vascular illness, rather than respiratory very early on. That it moves quickly and attacks people differently Possibly the people developing clots would have been serious hospitalisations. It's probably too early to know.

The stats are really interesting - as a whole it’s less risky to have the vaccine. However, personalised risk is a different thing - and needs careful weighing up.

If you have medical conditions that may be affected by the vaccine +/- covid, then maybe seek advice from a medical professional. They could help you assess the risks.

@bookworm1632
...There WILL be antibodies, at least for a while, they just won't show on every antibody test.
Many tests these days will tell you separately whether you have infection or vaccine induced antibodies..

Sorry if my post was unclear. The quote about antibodies is from Imperial College London www.imperial.ac.uk/news/215033/covid-19-vaccine-qa-latest-news-antibody/

The point I'm making is that the ONS stats seem to indicate that over 50% of the population have antibodies to Covid. Imperial College London seem to say that people who have been vaccinated won't show antibody proteins in their tests.

So what is showing up in the ONS stats?

@doublehalo

@bookworm1632 ...There WILL be antibodies, at least for a while, they just won't show on every antibody test. Many tests these days will tell you separately whether you have infection or vaccine induced antibodies..

Sorry if my post was unclear. The quote about antibodies is from Imperial College London www.imperial.ac.uk/news/215033/covid-19-vaccine-qa-latest-news-antibody/

The point I'm making is that the ONS stats seem to indicate that over 50% of the population have antibodies to Covid. Imperial College London seem to say that people who have been vaccinated won't show antibody proteins in their tests.

So what is showing up in the ONS stats?

The quote from Imperial is that the vaccine doesn't N-protein antibodies, which is what many commercially available antibody tests are checking for.

The vaccine instead produces S-protein (spike protein) antibodies. I would assume the ONS antibody test is capable of checking for both types of antibodies.

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/mrna.html

From the further information on methods section on the ONS report:

“Swabs are tested for three genes present in the coronavirus: N protein, S protein and ORF1ab. Each swab can have one, two or all three genes detected.”

@partyatthepalace

We all need to have the vaccine to reduce the spread, reduce the chances of mutation and get the country off its economic knees.

It is not about your personal risk OP. Don’t be a selfish dick - have the vaccine. The chances of side effects are time.

Exactly. People need to stop thinking only of themselves. Ffs.

Thank you for all your responses. I forgot I’d asked this question and just re-found the thread.

This is all very interesting and helpful.

@doublehalo

The recent ons survey showed that 54% of people in England have antibodies (although more could be immune) so based on your 60% figure, were getting pretty close.

This is astonishing!

More than half the population have had Covid and recovered!

Possibly a lot more than half due to the large amount of people who are asymptomatic.

But yes, let's all take a vaccine experimental RNA 'therapy' with unknown efficacy and side effects.

No - a big chunk of that 54% have got their antibodies from the hugely successful vaccination programme.

@partyatthepalace

We all need to have the vaccine to reduce the spread, reduce the chances of mutation and get the country off its economic knees.

It is not about your personal risk OP. Don’t be a selfish dick - have the vaccine. The chances of side effects are time.

This.

@Tal45

I'm mid 40's and hoping to get the Moderna. I'd just rather not take the risk with AZ even if it's very small if there's an alternative.

Hello everyone.

We’re getting a number of reports about anti-vax sentiment and misinformation. Mumsnet, being an open site, does mean that this kind of thing tends to be robustly challenged on the boards, and many users are here looking for reassurance after all.

We're always on alert to anyone here with a specific agenda to share a particular (often extreme) point of view. We'll usually ban such posters as their contributions to threads are rarely helpful. We also delete links to sites that are clearly peddling bad science/fake news.

We think, especially with the emergence of new vaccines, it’s understandable people will want to discuss what’s involved - but we’d always urge anyone with questions to speak to a medical professional too. You can also find further information about vaccines on the NHS website. www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/why-vaccination-is-safe-and-important/

In order to ascertain the risks of the vaccine vs the virus you wouldn't just use the statistics of one jab but three ( the two you are about to take and the booster jabs due in the autumn). Over a five year period that would be around 10 jabs if the proposed 6 monthly vaccines will go ahead which give different risk ratios to " 1 jab that has an apparent million to one chance".

Then you need to weigh up the risks of covid complications vs the risk of side effects that others are reporting such as missed periods / ill for days, a week ill etc from each jab with some people still feeling terrible after even longer. Of course there is long covid which undoubtedly exists but many people who have felt ill long before 2019 with no discernible medical reason would have been put into the long covid bracket so it is a vague condition

Foreign countries are reporting higher numbers of blood clots than the Uk so it boils down to whether you believe the numbers abroad or in the Uk. When I look at sky news home pages I see no mention of suspensions abroad which whether we agree or disagree is certainly worthy of making the news which the BBC and sky etc seem reluctant to report which seems a little strange yet have Lenny Henry that renowned scientist on with the Queen telling us to do our duty so it boils down to personal choice.

Good luck with whatever decisions you make

@ILoveAllRainbowsx

Also, covid can damage organs so we don't know what the long term effects will be.

true but many would argue the same about the vaccine

I think it’s estimated at 50-67 % of the population

It's well over 80%, the "kent" variant is 40% more infectious than the R of 3.5 of the original which moves the basic to well over 80, but that assumes the vaccine is 100% effective, it's considerably less than 100% effective, in fact it appears ineffective enough that vaccines alone cannot reach herd immunity.

When I look at sky news home pages I see no mention of suspensions abroad which whether we agree or disagree is certainly worthy of making the news which the BBC and sky etc seem reluctant to report which seems a little strange yet have Lenny Henry that renowned scientist on with the Queen telling us to do our duty

The BBC is my goto news service - I only look at others if someone specifically links to them.

I knew about the suspensions of AZ in European countries and Canada from the BBC, as well as the earlier unwillingness to administer it to over 60’s/over 65’s in France and Germany. So I’m not sure how that adds up to the BBC being reluctant to report it, when they have reported it...

Those saying the suspensions of covid in other countries haven't been mentioned in uk news ... really? That's exactly where I read it. The BBC news has had each one mentioned on their home page and on their app main page.

I can't answer for sky news as it's not one I use, but definitely it's been there - and fairly prominently - on the BBC news websites and apps. I don't see the tv news so don't know about that.

But it's definitely not been hidden away.