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Original poster

Probability of dying of Covid versus vaccine

123 replies

Dustyboots · 03/04/2021 00:11

If I was to multiply the probability of catching Covid first by the probability of dying from it - I wonder what that would be. Is there a way to do that?

The probability of dying from the vaccine (due to blood clots) is very low - but perhaps it's just as low from Covid too. At the moment people are considering the chances of dying from Covid without considering that we won't all definitely get it.

With the vaccine - you'll definitely get it, so you can't rule that out (unless you choose not to of course)

OP posts:
amylou8 · 03/04/2021 08:19

I am convinced, as a healthy 40 something, my risk from a vaccine is greater than covid. We're already seeing potentially fatal short term effects, and the long term effects are a complete unknown. International travel is a big part of my life, both for pleasure and work, so I'll be having the jab as soon as it offered to me in order to resume this...but I absolutely do not want it.

bumbleymummy · 03/04/2021 08:20

@Temp023

Nope, if you can safely have the vaccine and you don’t have the vaccine, then you ARE a selfish dick! This is not just a personal decision, your actions are affecting all of us, time to shape up and join the human race!
How are people that are already immune after recovery from infection putting people at risk @Temp023?
winched · 03/04/2021 08:20

www.qcovid.org

This will tell you your own personal risk of catching and dying of covid. It's by the University of Oxford and used by the NHS.

For me it's 0.0004%.

I'm not planning to have the vaccine any time soon.

MotherOfCrocodiles · 03/04/2021 08:21

QCovid algorithm calculator online does this for you

MumofPsuedoAdult · 03/04/2021 08:22

@Temp023 so people who maybe have health anxiety or a needle phobia (who could arguably 'safely have it') are all 'selfish dicks'?

bumbleymummy · 03/04/2021 08:22

@Temp023

And are you really waiting to be one of the 30% that don’t have it? “There is a perceived risk for the other 70% so I’ll let them take that risk, then I’ll rely on their herd immunity, but I won’t have to “risk” the vaccine myself! “ I think this is as good a definition of “selfish dick” as I have ever come across!
Actually, I’m not relying on anyone for herd immunity. I’m happy to take my risk with the virus and contribute to herd immunity that way.
giletrouge · 03/04/2021 08:23

Sitting for too long increases your risk of blood clots. Going on a plane can cause blood clots.
Stand up, run around, don't fly, and then you might legitimately complain about the vaccine risks!

Waxonwaxoff0 · 03/04/2021 08:26

I am 30 years old and healthy. I am not scared of catching Covid and I'm not scared of getting a blood clot from a vaccine. I'm getting the vaccine to do my part to protect others, achieve herd immunity and get back to normal. My personal risk doesn't even come into the equation for me.

user1494055864 · 03/04/2021 08:27

I've read lots of different things and I'm confused, as I read the other day that the 2 doses of vaccine only give immunity for 6 months?? So everyone having both vaccines will be back to square one in 6 months time, unless they continue getting boosters?? Also Boris saying that you still can't meet even if both people have had 2 jabs, so I really can't see the point of it.
I've worked in a school throughout, with key worker kids, the majority of parents were hospital workers, as we live very near a hospital. I haven't caught anything.
I'm not having it and won't be bullied into having it.

didireallysaythat · 03/04/2021 08:28

Does the qcovid calculator tell you the chance of having long COVID? I can't find the numbers sonic done has a link to something better than this:

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-56601911

Statistically I'm unlikely to die of COVID but I don't fancy the potential after effects.

Roszie · 03/04/2021 08:30

I've been really desperate to get the jab but have to say if I was offered it tomorrow I don't know if I would take it.

MaryGubbins · 03/04/2021 08:31

I’m not sure what percentage of the population needs to be immune to reach herd immunity (no longer a dirty word now we are talking vaccines). I think it’s estimated at 50-67 % of the population. So it’s not 70% vaccinated as the vaccines aren’t 100%. Plus all the under 16s who don’t have a vaccine yet, plus all the people who it truly isn’t safe for such as some cancer patients etc..

Those who can have the vaccine really need to to contribute to the herd immunity to those who can’t. And stop the new variants.

PuzzledObserver · 03/04/2021 08:32

@winched

https://www.qcovid.org

This will tell you your own personal risk of catching and dying of covid. It's by the University of Oxford and used by the NHS.

For me it's 0.0004%.

I'm not planning to have the vaccine any time soon.

So that’s 1 in 250,000.

Whereas the risk of you dying from a vaccine-induced (if it is) blood clot is 7 in 35 million, or 1 in 5 million.

You are 20 times more likely to catch Covid and die of it than you are to die from a blood clot after having the vaccine (even if the clots are caused by the vaccine, which we still don’t know for sure).

In your personal case, the rational decision would be to have the vaccine.

MrsFrisbyMouse · 03/04/2021 08:32

It's impossible to tell - it's all big numbers and hard to actually apply at individual level.

The vaccine link to clots hasn't been fully established, if there is a link it hasn't been established why, and there is always the possibility that if it is the vaccine that causes the rare side effect of the clots - that that subgroup are the ones who would suffer complications if they get covid.

Even if there is a risk of clots, its ridiculously small, and even if your personal risk of covid is also small, it makes sense to still have the vaccine as over all this protects both you, but also helps to break chains of transmission and protects others around you - be that at family/friends level or society level.

Againstmachine · 03/04/2021 08:32

I have had first dose of vaccine but do the people think calling others selfish dicks really helps and encourages them to have it , try and educate people but calling people names because they aren't having it is pathetic and people who do that ought to be ashamed of their selves.

bumbleymummy · 03/04/2021 08:33

@MaryGubbins Lots of children and adults will already be immune after recovering from infection. So they’re all contributing to herd immunity too.

moochingtothepub · 03/04/2021 08:33

At 40 your personal risk from dying is around the same from covid or the vaccine I read BUT long covid needs to be taken into account and the fact that the vaccine is reducing your likelihood to carry to virus and pass onto someone unable to be vaccinated/vaccine isn't effective due to compromised immune system and to to reduce overall ability for the virus to replicate in society once social distancing ends. In other words you are protecting society.

We've all been vaccinated even our 20 something DD's (under group 6)

CrunchyCarrot · 03/04/2021 08:35

If you are very concerned about it, then wait to get a Pfizer, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

moochingtothepub · 03/04/2021 08:35

Sorry should say probability with no underlying health conditions or obesity

Inthevirtualwaitingroom · 03/04/2021 08:38

some people are holding out for the pzifer, hoping that they will receive a particular vaccine, i think no one will get that choice.

Temp023 · 03/04/2021 08:40

I accept that people have valid reasons for not having it.
I have had Covid, I have antibodies, as does DH. However we have also had the jab because the science on the levels of immunity offered are likely to be more reliable.
If you are thinking that getting Covid is safer than having the vaccine, then you are not actually looking at the evidence properly, you are also failing to understand that every case raises a risk of mutations and therefore a new variant.
This is why the government is vaccinating the younger age groups, it’s not to protect them, it’s to reduce that risk!

starfish4 · 03/04/2021 08:41

OP, I know you asked about risk of death, and that's a fair enough question, but also what about quality of life. I was nervous and had to get my head around the vaccine. At the same time, I don't want to live like this for the rest of my life waiting to get it at some point, I want myself and others to enjoy their lives, have jobs, reduced fears.Tte way around that is vaccination. I got my head around it, was unexpectedly invited because of my job, and was there like a shot at 8.30am the next day - the sense of relief after made it my best day this year. Afterwards I found out that vaccination means I'm less likely to transmit it to my loved ones, which was a great feeling as well.

PuzzledObserver · 03/04/2021 08:43

@user1494055864

I've read lots of different things and I'm confused, as I read the other day that the 2 doses of vaccine only give immunity for 6 months?? So everyone having both vaccines will be back to square one in 6 months time, unless they continue getting boosters??

I suspect you may have missed 2 vital words out of that sentence - “at least.” 2 doses of vaccine give immunity for at least six months.

There are already published studies showing immunity from natural infection lasts at least 8 months. I suspect in a few months we’ll have a study saying immunity from natural infection lasts at least a year.

It’s not much more than six months since the first trial participants had their second doses, and it takes time for scientific papers to be written and reported. They can’t know yet how long immunity lasts after two shots, they can only know it lasts at least as long as since the second shot was given to the trial group.

But they’ve said all along that immunity from vaccination is expected to be longer lasting than immunity from natural infection, so if immunity from infection lasts at least 8 months then immunity from vaccination is going to be at least a year. And quite possibly longer. But we won’t know until ‘longer’ has elapsed.

bumbleymummy · 03/04/2021 08:44

the science on the levels of immunity offered are likely to be more reliable.

We know more about immunity after natural infection than we do about vaccination at the moment. I’m not sure what you mean about the science being more reliable.

bobbiester · 03/04/2021 08:46

So the reports are that 7 out of 18 million people who received the AZ vaccine in the UK - have subsequently died from blood clots. About 1 in 2.5 million...

Now - putting aside the issue of whether the vaccine caused the clots - to put these numbers in perspective.

In the USA there are about 4 million births per year - and so far this year 4 people have been killed by "gender reveal party" stunts (e.g. from exploding devices).

Assuming everyone having a baby has a gender reveal party - the chance of death is 1 in 1 million. Of course the risk is way greater than that as most people don't have them.