Probability of dying of Covid versus vaccine

[Dustyboots]

If I was to multiply the probability of catching Covid first by the probability of dying from it - I wonder what that would be. Is there a way to do that?

The probability of dying from the vaccine (due to blood clots) is very low - but perhaps it's just as low from Covid too. At the moment people are considering the chances of dying from Covid without considering that we won't all definitely get it.

With the vaccine - you'll definitely get it, so you can't rule that out (unless you choose not to of course)

I had my Covid vaccine and felt a bit run down for 24 hours. 4 friends my age or younger and probably in better health than me were proper ill for more than a week. One ended up in hospital on O2. I will take the vaccine.

The best immunity is your own! There not a pinch of common sense in the argument that we will protect others and return to normal once everyone is vaccinated. Its unethical to bully people into taking a vaccine! More than that , it's against the law!

Why not test people for antibodies before forcing them to be vacinnate? The government's own report into what to do if there was a pandemic recommended against mass vaccination of healthy people as there isn't a danger that that may cause a worse problem if the virus then mutates to get around the vaccine. I don't think mass vaccination is safe so I'll do the unselfish thing and rely on catching covid or one of the variants to contribute to natural herd immunity.

Oh and those quoting covid stats remember those deaths are deaths within 28 days of testing positive for covid not necessarily dying of covid. Have you noticed those deaths after having the vacinne are not accepted as deaths due to the vacinne.

what are the symptoms of blood clots?

@Inthevirtualwaitingroom

what are the symptoms of blood clots?

In the case of covid vaccine the main one is severe headache

@bumbleymummy

About 4.5 million known cases of covid in the uk. So if we double that (as not everyone gets a test). That’s 13% of the population so not sure what that risks of catching twice and creating new variants are for this group. But let’s assume for the sake of argument it’s as good as a vaccine. And let’s not forget we’ve had a year like no other and over 100,000 dead to get there.

So we need at say 60 of 68million immune. So 40 million. Minus the 9 million who had it.

We still need to get at least another 31 million people immune. So if we say the vaccines are about 70% effective we still need to vaccinate 44 million people to get there.

My numbers might be a bit off here or there but my overall feeling I’d there is not much room for manoeuvre.

thank you @Sparrowcrane

I'm a bit tired of people saying that those who are hesitant about the vaccine don't know how statistics work. That line has been bandied around on a number of threads and otherwise implied even here.

The issue for me is that we have a good understanding of the risk factors for being severely affected by covid. However, we so far don't know what is behind the clots. I therefore don't think numbers like X in a million are that reassuring for people as we don't know that everyone's odds are equal.

It's like if you lined up 5 men and 5 women and said 2 in 10 would be affected by a female health issue. Saying everyone's risk is 2 in 10 would not give the full picture. I think it's fair that people - particularly young women who are very unlikely to be badly affected by covid - want to know what the risk factors are with the vaccine so they can put the numbers into context.

Over a million people in the Uk have Long Covid, those not going for the vaccine need to take into account that they may suffer for a long time if they catch even a “mild” dose of Covid.

Should have said we need 60% of the population (68 million) of the uk to be immune which is about 40 million people. Sorry my post is not clear

What I find really worrying is that so many people are readmitted to hospital when they have 'recovered' from covid.

@Sparrowcrane

The best immunity is your own! There not a pinch of common sense in the argument that we will protect others and return to normal once everyone is vaccinated. Its unethical to bully people into taking a vaccine! More than that , it's against the law!

Well that's great if you have immunity - what if you don't?

To quote what you wrote in another thread...

@Sparrowcrane - I've had Covid like many others and it does not justify a vaccine, lockdowns, ruined livelihoods, NHS saving measures etc.

So you think COVID "does not justify a vaccine"? If it doesn't - what on earth would?

[quote MaryGubbins]@bumbleymummy

About 4.5 million known cases of covid in the uk. So if we double that (as not everyone gets a test). That’s 13% of the population so not sure what that risks of catching twice and creating new variants are for this group. But let’s assume for the sake of argument it’s as good as a vaccine. And let’s not forget we’ve had a year like no other and over 100,000 dead to get there.

So we need at say 60 of 68million immune. So 40 million. Minus the 9 million who had it.

We still need to get at least another 31 million people immune. So if we say the vaccines are about 70% effective we still need to vaccinate 44 million people to get there.

My numbers might be a bit off here or there but my overall feeling I’d there is not much room for manoeuvre.[/quote]
The recent ons survey showed that 54% of people in England have antibodies (although more could be immune) so based on your 60% figure, were getting pretty close.

What's bothering me is the lack of transparency about this, and lack of information.

From foreign news (Canadian and German, Iceland, Finland) symptoms of the blood clotting disorder start to appear 4 to 10 days after the injection, some people have reported excessive bruising around the injection site, bruises in odd places on the body (legs mostly), abnormally cold or swollen legs, and very severe headaches which last more than 3 days (which can indicate slow bleeding on the brain), breathlessness (which can indicate blood clots on the lungs), blurred vision. I've taken these from different websites, in different languages.

The UK vaccine authorities have not published any official data on this, none at all. Other countries have official publications on which symptoms to look out for and what to do if you start developing the symptoms above.

It seems to affect middle aged women mostly, although some men have been affected. No information from the UK Gov, Despite knowing that if caught early, the disorder has a better chance of being treated.

I think its not just the chance of dying you need to take into account - the chance of long covid which is affecting a lot of younger adults is something to consider too.

We have just found out about blood clots caused by the vaccine but as this vaccine is very new and not tested for long term effects in my opinion the risks of the vaccine far outweigh any risk to healthy individuals of dying of covid! We don't know what other health risks are there from the vaccine and if the plan is to jab everyone once or twice a year risks are likely to multiply from the repeat vaccination.

@LizzieSiddal

Over a million people in the Uk have Long Covid, those not going for the vaccine need to take into account that they may suffer for a long time if they catch even a “mild” dose of Covid.

“Long covid” is a very broad term that includes people with lingering symptoms after 4 weeks which can be quite mild eg cough, up to people who have severe, debilitating symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks. The majority of people’s symptoms resolve within 12 weeks.

Dying isn't the only risk from Covid. The virus attacks vital organs, specifically brain, heart, lungs, liver and kidneys. Not always but it's possible. People who've had Covid often complain of extreme fatigue, loss of taste or smell, weakness, depression...

@Sparrowcrane

We have just found out about blood clots caused by the vaccine but as this vaccine is very new and not tested for long term effects in my opinion the risks of the vaccine far outweigh any risk to healthy individuals of dying of covid! We don't know what other health risks are there from the vaccine and if the plan is to jab everyone once or twice a year risks are likely to multiply from the repeat vaccination.

You just made up a load of stuff there for which there is no evidence...

1. We don't know that the AZ vaccine causes clots
2. All the evidence suggests COVID is more risky for even healthy young adults individuals than the AZ vaccine.
3. There is no evidence that repeat vaccination multiplies the risks you are referring to.

@Sparrowcrane

The best immunity is your own! There not a pinch of common sense in the argument that we will protect others and return to normal once everyone is vaccinated. Its unethical to bully people into taking a vaccine! More than that , it's against the law!

This.

It's not just the risk of COVID death to consider Op. We know someone who has been absolutely incapacitated by long COVID...

Take the vaccine.

@Motorina

Approximately 60% of the adult population have had one dose of the vaccine. 10% have had two.

7 people have died of clots.

Assuming all the clots are caused by the jab, if that trend continues we’d expect another 4 deaths total from dose one, and another 9 from dose two. 20 deaths total.

I suspect more people die annually from rogue beach ball injuries.

We’ve had around 125,000 deaths from covid.

Finally someone talking sense. Why do people have to get it out of proportion. 7 deaths out of millions and millions of vaccines administered. More people will have died in car accidents on the way home from their jab. GET A GRIP PEOPLE FFS.

I’m happy to take my risk with the virus and contribute to herd immunity that way.

Having the virus doesn't cause lasting immunity.

The probability of dying from the vaccine (due to blood clots) is very low - but perhaps it's just as low from Covid too.

There is no evidence the AZ vaccine causes blood clots. If it does then the risk is incredibly low.

Unless you are very healthy, never get colds/flu and are in your 20s then the vaccine is certainly the safer bet.

7 people have died of clots.....I suspect more people die annually from rogue beach ball injuries.

Certainly many more people die annually of blood clots, which is why it's very likely there is no connection and we are just noticing a particular cause of death because we are looking for it.

The UK vaccine authorities have not published any official data on this, none at all. Other countries have official publications on which symptoms to look out for and what to do if you start developing the symptoms above.

It seems to affect middle aged women mostly, although some men have been affected. No information from the UK Gov, Despite knowing that if caught early, the disorder has a better chance of being treated.

Nothing other than this guidance from the British Society for Haematology b-s-h.org.uk/about-us/news/guidance-produced-from-the-expert-haematology-panel-ehp-focussed-on-syndrome-of-thrombosis-and-thrombocytopenia-occurring-after-coronavirus-vaccination/

And this summary of cases from the MHRA www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting