Probability of dying of Covid versus vaccine

[Dustyboots]

If I was to multiply the probability of catching Covid first by the probability of dying from it - I wonder what that would be. Is there a way to do that?

The probability of dying from the vaccine (due to blood clots) is very low - but perhaps it's just as low from Covid too. At the moment people are considering the chances of dying from Covid without considering that we won't all definitely get it.

With the vaccine - you'll definitely get it, so you can't rule that out (unless you choose not to of course)

The recent ons survey showed that 54% of people in England have antibodies (although more could be immune) so based on your 60% figure, were getting pretty close.

This is astonishing!

More than half the population have had Covid and recovered!

Possibly a lot more than half due to the large amount of people who are asymptomatic.

But yes, let's all take a vaccine experimental RNA 'therapy' with unknown efficacy and side effects.

@merrymelody

Dying isn't the only risk from Covid. The virus attacks vital organs, specifically brain, heart, lungs, liver and kidneys. Not always but it's possible. People who've had Covid often complain of extreme fatigue, loss of taste or smell, weakness, depression...

There is also some evidence that in individuals with long covid the vaccine helps to cure their symptoms. www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91476

As a middle aged woman however I would like the specific data on the % of my age group and gender that have developed blood clots. My concern is that the numbers developing blood clots in the UK will rise significantly as we go down the age groups.

@doublehalo

The recent ons survey showed that 54% of people in England have antibodies (although more could be immune) so based on your 60% figure, were getting pretty close.

This is astonishing!

More than half the population have had Covid and recovered!

Possibly a lot more than half due to the large amount of people who are asymptomatic.

But yes, let's all take a vaccine experimental RNA 'therapy' with unknown efficacy and side effects.

No. The ONS reckon that about 20% have had covid.

The rest have immunity from the vaccine.

Of the 20% or so who have had covid, 125,000 have died.

If we let the disease run through the population, then five times as many would die. 625,000 total.

Or we can vaccinate everyone. Which (absolute worst case scenario, even if they are all linked) has so far caused seven deaths.

To bobbiester- well done for looking up my other posts! it's up to you to consider whether to have the vaccine or not but I'm not having it based on my research ! Covid vaccination or any other should not be forced on anyone. The pressure on healthy individuals to vaccinate is unsubstantiated as they already have the immunity to fight it off. In my case, like in majority of people who have had COVID, I recovered and theoretically have antibodies. Also, I have no fear of COVID and would prefer to catch it again instead of injecting a vaccine which might have adverse effects short and long term and gives me less protection from the virus than my own immunity

As a middle aged woman however I would like the specific data on the % of my age group and gender that have developed blood clots.

I don't have the data on that but it's apparently about 42,000 in the UK annually. It's a leading cause of death. Again- no evidence the 7 people who died recently had anything to do with taking the vaccine.

thrombosisuk.org/thrombosis-statistics.php

This is astonishing! More than half the population have had Covid and recovered!

Nope, it's because we've vaccinated half the population. Many people who've had Covid will no longer have antibodies.

Is the blood clot problem only after the AZ version? I had the Pfizer one, I deliberately opted for a vax centre in a hospital where I knew they were only using Pfizer.
Maybe for people at a higher risk of clots they could offer Pfizer rather than AZ? Isn't the Moderna jab due to be started soon, so another option for those concerned.

@doublehalo

The recent ons survey showed that 54% of people in England have antibodies (although more could be immune) so based on your 60% figure, were getting pretty close.

This is astonishing!

More than half the population have had Covid and recovered!

Possibly a lot more than half due to the large amount of people who are asymptomatic.

But yes, let's all take a vaccine experimental RNA 'therapy' with unknown efficacy and side effects.

No, it includes people who have recovered from infection and those who have been vaccinated.

It’s going to be a combination of the two that gets us to herd immunity.

@Motorina I'm not sure if you went through the documents / links you posted, but neither are clear or obvious about what symptoms to look out for. Maybe you can have another look and state exactly where they both explain what the symptoms are and what to do?

You'd need specific data in order to make an informed decision. Which don't believe has been made available.

It's looking like the blood clotting is slightly more common than originally though (although still very rare) and is all in younger women, who are a group less likely to die from Covid. Things like BMI and other conditions might also come into it.

AZ vaccine isn’t RNA therapy, it’s DNA which is science you’ve probably had already if you’ve been vaccinated for anything else.

I think on balance it’s positive they’ve identified the issue as they can start to provide advice and guidance. It seems treatable if spotted early enough.

Again (I'm saying again, this is getting boring) the type of thrombosis observed after having received the vaccine in a small number of people isn't the regular type of thrombosis, it's not the same as you can get after flying, for example. It's an extremely rare blood disorder.

This is getting tiring. Please read about it before posting some completely irrelevant data. It's bot because you have a link that you are right.

Regards covid, it wasn't really the risk of dying that concerned me.
I caught covid in October and was in hospital with it. My blood pressure spiked so high I was rushed there with a real risk of heart attack or stroke, and a risk of having a blood clot - it was one of the first things they scanned me for.

It's been nearly 6 months and I'm still not fully right. I'm on two different blood pressure medication to keep it controlled which took over 4 months to get right. I'll probably take them for life. I get out of breath quickly. I get pains and tightness in my chest. I have fatigue a lot of the time and have had more arthritis flare ups than before (due to issues with that medication and covid) Brain fog is an issue, as is daily stamina levels which I'm still having to rebuild.

I've had my first vaccine in February and dh was fortunate enough to get his yesterday. I'm not sure how well my body would cope with covid again right now. So having both me and dh vaccinated feels a good first step to reduce the chances. Hopefully teen Dd will be vaccinated by the summer too, well at least her first.

I wasn't concerned about which vaccine I had. At it happens we both had Pfizer. Only side effect was a sore arm.

@Sparrowcrane

We have just found out about blood clots caused by the vaccine but as this vaccine is very new and not tested for long term effects in my opinion the risks of the vaccine far outweigh any risk to healthy individuals of dying of covid! We don't know what other health risks are there from the vaccine and if the plan is to jab everyone once or twice a year risks are likely to multiply from the repeat vaccination.

I'm not doctor but I've heard it enough times from reputable sources to believe it - every nature of a vaccine means that long term effects just aren't a thing because that's not how they work.

This argument keeps being made but Ive yet to see anyone link to a proper peer reviewed study that names a vacinne where this has happened

Which one are you thinking of @Sparrowcrane ? I'd really like to have some science on this.

It's very silly to compare. Risk of covid is not just death. And chance of getting blood clot is way higher with covid than vaccine.

@Silverfly

In the UK, I believe that approx 35m vaccines have been given and there have been 7 deaths from blood clots. So that's a probability of 0.00002%.

I believe the chance of dying from covid if you've caught it is around 1%. So maybe 0.2% if you assume a 20% chance of catching it? (I've guessed the 20% - it's not based on anything particular).

So that's my not-very-scientific estimate - 10000 times more likely to die from covid. But of course that's age related - will be higher than that if you're elderly and lower if you're young.

As yet, there is no evidence that the blood clots were as a direct result of the vaccine. People die from blood clots every day, worldwide. It’s one of the most common causes of death. So yes, while the world is vaccinating at a rapid rate, there will be many deaths through blood clots at the same time; and heart attacks, cancer, aneurisms, sepsis and so on. That doesn’t mean the vaccine has caused those deaths.

@donquixotedelamancha

This is astonishing! More than half the population have had Covid and recovered!

Nope, it's because we've vaccinated half the population. Many people who've had Covid will no longer have antibodies.

But may still be immune - as noted in the ONS survey. Immunity after infection has been shown to last up to 9 months. It does wane faster in older people but younger people maintained what was considered to be a protective level.

@QwertyGirly

Again (I'm saying again, this is getting boring) the type of thrombosis observed after having received the vaccine in a small number of people isn't the regular type of thrombosis, it's not the same as you can get after flying, for example. It's an extremely rare blood disorder.

This is getting tiring. Please read about it before posting some completely irrelevant data. It's bot because you have a link that you are right.

Do you have a source that you can cite to explain this?

"Long" covid is a very real issue.

Recent ONS study during a 4 week period, had 674,000 people report long covid affecting their day to day activities with 196,000 severely impacted.

Separately it's estimated that 21% of those infected go on to report long covid symptoms lasting longer than 5 weeks vs 13.7% who report symptoms lasting longer than 12 weeks.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021

We don’t how many people who have had covid, but we know how many have died - 127,000. Even if everyone in the country (60,000,000) had already had covid, the death rate would be 0.2% (lowest it could possibly be, in reality it is higher).

31,000,000 first vaccines have been given, if the death rate was 0.2% from the vaccine there would have been 66,000 deaths. There haven’t been even a fraction of these. The only estimate I could find was for the Astra Zeneca one where 30 out of 18,000,000 have sadly died. This is 0.0002%. So I can categorically say the vaccine is much, much safer than the disease even if you are young and healthy.

According to NICE guidance, ‘long covid’ is ongoing symptoms of COVID after 4 weeks and includes those with mild symptoms eg cough.

www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng188

Est. 4.35m positive cases of Covid in UK, with 127K deaths.

Est 31m vaccinations in UK, with 7 deaths.

@ bumbleymummy

Do you have a link for the ONS data? I can't seem to find it. Thanks.

@doublehalo

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/30march2021

I'm mid 40's and hoping to get the Moderna. I'd just rather not take the risk with AZ even if it's very small if there's an alternative.