Your position on Covid lockdowns

[kellehi]

Well, I have seen a lot of people on here changing as the wind blows and the government continues to move the goalposts with respect to lockdowns, and so the same happens here. So just wondering what your position on this will be in the future, if X happens.

Please start your post with the relevant number below, you can expand on this if you want, but not necessary.

1 - we should end the lockdown and open things up now.
2 - we should open up as originally promised on 21 June, regardless of the government position
3 - we should end the lockdown and open things up when everyone over 18 who wants a vaccine can have one
4 - we should end the lockdown and open things up when adults are vaccinated
5 - we should end the lockdown and open things up when every person including adults and children are vaccinated
6 - I think some element of lockdown should continue indefinitely whenever the government says it's required, even if it means years waiting.

Thanks

1, with the exceptions of large indoor gatherings and international travel.

Open shops, restaurants, gyms and recreation now!

@bumbleymummy,

What data have you seen that would allow us to open up sooner?

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@bumbleymummy,

What data have you seen that would allow us to open up sooner?[/quote]
The low numbers of hospitalisations/deaths and even cases (although they’re less important now anyway).

I would say the low hospitalisations and deaths are pretty key data in opening up. But only when it suits hey.

@bumbleymummy,

R is around 1 now with v little opened. We cannot see it explode upwards.

It still seems around 5% of cases need hospitalisation. So, if r got to 2, we would probably be a month or so away from locking down again.

Far better to be patient for a few more weeks and follow the sensible track that we are on. More people are vaccinated every week abs we can observe the effect on R of each easing measure.

www.insidehousing.co.uk/home/home/government-relaxes-planning-rules-for-converting-unused-commercial-buildings-into-homes-70247?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

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[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@bumbleymummy,

R is around 1 now with v little opened. We cannot see it explode upwards.

It still seems around 5% of cases need hospitalisation. So, if r got to 2, we would probably be a month or so away from locking down again.

Far better to be patient for a few more weeks and follow the sensible track that we are on. More people are vaccinated every week abs we can observe the effect on R of each easing measure.[/quote]
If the vaccines are doing their job we won’t see an explosion in hospitalisations even if cases increase. We’ve vaccinated the most vulnerable groups already. We’re moving into groups that are unlikely to be hospitalised anyway.

There is no evidence lockdowns do anything other than kill people unable to access vital NHS treatment for operations that have been delayed. The countries that have had no or fewer lockdowns have better covid death figures than we have

From an article late 2020

Nearly 75,000 people could die from non-Covid causes as a result of lockdown, according to devastating official figures buried in a 188-page document.

The startling research, presented to the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), will further increase pressure on Boris Johnson to hold back on introducing further coronavirus restrictions.

The document reveals 16,000 people died as a result of the chaos in hospitals and care homes in March and April alone. It estimates a further 26,000 will lose their lives within a year if people continue to stay away from A&E and the problems in social care persist and an additional 31,900 could die over the next five years as a result of missed cancer diagnoses, cancelled operations and the health impacts of a recession.

It's disgusting

There wouldn't have been much NHS treatment available though if the virus had been allowed to spread unchecked.
Lockdown is shit of course but at least it helped control case numbers and hospital admissions etc. Fingers crossed the vaccine will now have the same effect.

@bumbleymummy,

First vaccines thankfully reduce the risk of catching symptomatic Covid by 60% and, if you do catch it, of hospitalisation by 40%, making an overall reduction of 85% (according to what I have read most recently). This is fantastic but still means, that if COVID were allow to spread unchecked, a combination of this and the unvaccinated would once again fill hospitals.

Also, the more cases, the more mutations and possiblity of 'vaccine escape'

It is only another 2 weeks until shops and outdoor dining open and, in another month, 17th May, indoor dining and seeing people indoors.

Why the rush?

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@bumbleymummy,

First vaccines thankfully reduce the risk of catching symptomatic Covid by 60% and, if you do catch it, of hospitalisation by 40%, making an overall reduction of 85% (according to what I have read most recently). This is fantastic but still means, that if COVID were allow to spread unchecked, a combination of this and the unvaccinated would once again fill hospitals.

Also, the more cases, the more mutations and possiblity of 'vaccine escape'

It is only another 2 weeks until shops and outdoor dining open and, in another month, 17th May, indoor dining and seeing people indoors.

Why the rush?[/quote]
But this will always be the case. The vaccines will never be 100% effective. Those people will be at risk for the rest of time as we are not going to be able to eliminate Covid.

How will we EVER get back to tolerable life with this mindset?

How does lockdown kill people unable to access vital NHS treatment for operations that have been delayed @Heathermary1995

I don't see the connection.

@PrincessNutNuts

How does lockdown kill people unable to access vital NHS treatment for operations that have been delayed *@Heathermary1995*

I don't see the connection.

Are you serious?

@Jamboree01

Those operations weren't cancelled due to lockdown, they were cancelled because treating people with covid was taking up so much of the total health service capacity.

If we hadn't locked down, we would still be seeing hospitals over run now, meaning more cancellations for longer.

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@PrincessNutNuts

How does lockdown kill people unable to access vital NHS treatment for operations that have been delayed *@Heathermary1995*

I don't see the connection.

I mean there are thousands of examples but there was someone in the news yesterday fighting for life after having two (or three) kidney stone operations cancelled during lock down.

There must be so many people who are more ill, dead potentially now terminally ill who shouldn't be.

@dividedwefall

That is caused by the health service being overwhelmed, not whether the population is restricted?

I still don't see the connection @dividedwefall.

@Jamboree01

Yes, of course I'm serious.

How does lockdown kill people unable to access vital NHS treatment for operations that have been delayed? (as @Heathermary1995 said)

I'm somewhere between 1&2. I don't think it's sensible to return to large venues and events hosting thousands of people in a relatively small space such as stadiums etc. But I do think we need to rapidly unlock the economy and get the country back to some level of normality fairly urgently.

@beginningoftheend 👆

1 due to the very low incidence here

But 2 is the government way so have to wait

Several factors missed out of the choices so I can't pick one.

Important to me regarding lockdowns -

Keeping closed borders: no point reopening and then needing to lockdown again due to new variants (even ones that aren't more lethal etc, just means everyone gets the same amount of ill all over again and vaccination programme has to restart)

Education: what is the point of the current year 10 and 12 making themselves ill with stress and hardwork if the government are going to allow virus levels to take off again next winter and cancel the exams for a 3rd year running. There is no official continuous assessment so it would once again be a case of teachers assessing on inconsistent criteria and not a small amount of preconceived bias.

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