What is happening in France (and Italy)

[Northernsoullover]

Does anyone know why their cases are soaring? I know that areas of France and Italy are back in lockdown but does that mean they had limited restrictions before? I have googled but wondered if there were any resident mumsnetters who might be able to shed some light?

Most of Europe has had relatively low restrictions over the winter compared to the UK. Eg there was never a rule that said you couldn’t meet others outside your household. Spain introduced it for a couple of weeks at the end of January when they had a spike. But mostly, people have been leading a relatively ‘normal’ life, albeit with curfews and what not.

The death rate was never as excessive as the UK’s, so restrictions weren’t so tight. Now the B117 variant is spreading, schools in the few countries that closed them in January have opened again, and the weather has improved so people are out and about again. Winter holidays only finished 2-3 weeks ago in some places.

The UK had a long and sharp wave Nov-Feb, with many deaths. Most of Europe had a lighter, continuous wave throughout the winter but their death and hospitalisation rates held steadily, compared to UK. Now numbers are going back up as the second wave was never fully gone.

People need to compare the cases, death and hospitalisation rates per 1m population for each country, not just the numbers alone. That’s what puts it into perspective - where I currently live we’re getting into a third wave but our death rate is still half that of the UK’s. It would take another year to ‘catch up’. So no, it’s not a complete disaster compared to the UK. It might take a little longer to get out of the winter surge but we’ll have avoided many deaths in the process. Cases are going up just as before (more transmisible variant), but the deaths not so much. 10% of the population is vaccinated, and that’s the over 80s and most vulnerable adults. They’re the ones more at risk so the death rate is lower than that of previous waves.

Gosh what an evil regime they are letting just over 3 million people live unnecessarily when they could have easily let them die AND wrecked their economy at the same time AND kept their entire population under severe restrictions for about 18 months. They must be absolutely kicking themselves for taking the approach they did

Well, they did try to hide it at first, and then threatened doctors with prison for talking about it .... and then pressured the WHO to downplay the severity and still won’t let anyone investigate in Wuhan in an impartial manner.

But yeah, they did so well 🙄

Where are you getting your numbers from? They don’t look like they’re ‘soaring’ to me. Also they are about half where we were in January.

UK and Italy for comparison.

@ThePricklySheep

Where are you getting your numbers from? They don’t look like they’re ‘soaring’ to me. Also they are about half where we were in January.

Soaring is probably the wrong word you are right. I didn't realise they hadn't got low in the first place.

China pop 1.4 billion so that would be 3.1 million deaths instead of 4636.

4636 that we know about.

It's clearly the delay in rolling out the vaccine and then faffing around with the AstraZeneca one. The graphs speak for themselves, the UK is on 25 million vaccinated out of 66 million, Italy is on just 2.3 million out of a population of 60 million.

It isn't just France and Italy but the whole of the EU, due to the European Commission having to negotiate vaccine purchases for all the member states, whereas non-trading bloc countries like the UK just had to think about themselves.

I cant believe people on here actually think that China was reasonable!! Not to mention, anyone who believes their death figure is accurate are idiotic. Let's face it, china tried to hide this from the start which enabled it to spread around the world.

Let's also remember it is for our benefit that our government has to weigh up covid lockdowns with the economy because you'd be pretty pissed off if the economy tanked.

Let's see, economy tanks, millions upon millions out of work

No NHS
No local government services
So SEN services
No elderly care
No social care
No free school meals
No decent education
No food in the shops
No food on your table
No refuse collections
No benefit system

I could go on, the economy literally pays for all those things through our taxes and in order to pay taxes you need to work, and in order to work you need people and businesses wanting to buy/invest in what you do, and to get those businesses to do that they need to have their own profit.......do you see where I'm going here.

Or we could go the way of N.Korea and only give the citizens handouts of cash barely enough to feed themselves with..

Most of Europe has had relatively low restrictions over the winter compared to the UK. Eg there was never a rule that said you couldn’t meet others outside your household.

This isn't strictly true. I am in Italy - in a red zone with high case numbers. Before we were in the red zone things weren't normal. We have been wearing masks outside for ages, senior schools were closed a while ago (and now all schools are closed), you weren't meant to meet up with people (I think you could visit one person a day) but in general it was frowned upon. We haven't met up with friends for drinks or meals for months and months! Apparently nearly all the cases are now the UK (Kent?) variant which is more easily transmissable.

Re: the vaccines, yes there have been problems but I think a lot of stuff that is written in the British press is not really the whole picture. I was meant to get the vaccine on Wednesday but it was suspended - my new appointment is next Tuesday so less than a week's delay. And yes, the UK has vaccinated more people overall but Italy has a higher number of people who have received both doses than the UK has as they prioritized that at first.

This isn't strictly true.

That’s why I used the word most. And you’ve been able to meet one other person each day. In the UK you haven’t been allowed to visit a long term partner for 6 months, unless you qualified for a support bubbles. Very different circumstances.

Of course nowhere’s been normal. But meeting one extra person, some schools staying open and people allowed out to work even in non-essential jobs (Europe) is more relaxed than what the UK went through this winter.

@EileenGC that’s not the case though, is it?

You’re allowed to “walk” with one other person in the UK and have been for some time. I didn’t think we were but I was wrong.

[quote doireallyneedaname]@EileenGC that’s not the case though, is it?

You’re allowed to “walk” with one other person in the UK and have been for some time. I didn’t think we were but I was wrong.[/quote]
You are allowed to walk, yes. Most of Europe is allowed to have dinner, sleep over, socialise indoors with a whole other family, and see your partner regardless of the above being limited. I know people sticking to the rules in the UK who haven’t been able to be closer than 2m to their partners since October. I can easily do that with a friend, but a long term boyfriend? No getting close in 6 months? Of course most people have ignored this. But some have ‘stuck to the rules’ which were much harsher in the UK.

Indoor mixing in private homes has been always legal in France... I believe. I concede to ignorance on what's happened in Italy.

In contrast, Italy & France have outdoor mask wearing everywhere except professional sport (I watch pro cycling).

I humbly submit that outdoor masking does not mitigate for indoor mixing.

@EileenGC Although you could meet up with one person, it was very much underlined that you should avoid it unless necessary. I don't think the UK has been stricter than Italy tbh. In the first lockdown we weren't even allowed out of the flat for exercise and everyone I know in the UK was going out for walks and runs.

Also, it doesn't really make sense here to refer to Europe - each country has had very different rules. I can only say what is happening in Italy - do you really know all the rules for all the countries in Europe?

@Gerla yes - the first lockdown in Italy was a lot harsher. I’m Spanish and know perfectly well how it was in Italy or Spain. 7 weeks of not even allowed to go outside. It was the opposite in the winter, with the UK a bit stricter (perhaps influenced by the first lockdown approach...? I don’t know).

Which is why I specified winter and most countries. If you include those words when reading my posts, you’ll see I’m not giving any inaccurate information. I have first hand knowledge of 6 countries, yes. Due to various reasons. I also have work colleagues from a long list of other European countries, and I have been travelling regularly all over the continent so I have had to familiarise myself with each nation’s rules and guidance. I stand by my previous statement, the UK’s winter restrictions have been stricter than most other European countries.

@EileenGC

This isn't strictly true.

That’s why I used the word most. And you’ve been able to meet one other person each day. In the UK you haven’t been allowed to visit a long term partner for 6 months, unless you qualified for a support bubbles. Very different circumstances.

Of course nowhere’s been normal. But meeting one extra person, some schools staying open and people allowed out to work even in non-essential jobs (Europe) is more relaxed than what the UK went through this winter.

I'm in Italy and have regular contact with family in the UK. "More relaxed" is not how I'd describe it here, not at all.

The only real difference as far as I can see is for the primary schools, and the impact that had on working parents in the UK. In my town there's been no meeting with anyone outside your immediate family.

It's basically horrific for all of us, whichever country we are in. We are just at different stages, and until the vaccine is rolled out across the board, it's going to continue to be so.

It's basically horrific for all of us, whichever country we are in. We are just at different stages, and until the vaccine is rolled out across the board, it's going to continue to be so.

Agree 100%. I’m really hoping the vaccine rollout can progress quickly and we’re all out of this nightmare soon.

Indoor mixing in private homes has been always legal in France

That is technically true, but when we had the severest restrictions which required carrying an attestation every single time you left the house, "going to visit friends/family" was not one of the permitted reasons so you risked being stopped and fined if that is what you were doing.

We live very rurally (sorry, I know MN hates that phrase!) but numerous people that I know were stopped and asked for their forms.

I think we will be back to that before too long.

Indoor mixing in private homes has been always legal in France

It has, limited to 6 people and a recommendation to stay within a bubble. But the messages have got lost over the last few months.

TBH, I don't really know anyone who's been breaking that 6-person rule in France, but I am very aware that lots of people probably are.

I agree that most people are not social distancing here; only a tiny minority are using hand gel at the entrance to shops or, in my local supermarket, taking one of the anti-theft tabs you're meant to pick up as you go in so that they can adhere to the maximum capacity. And the ski season, where lifts were shut so the lower slopes were mobbed (so I was told, I did not witness this as I didn't go anywhere near a ski resort) was clearly meant to try and help some hotels and the cafés and bars doing takeaway to survive, but there was a big spike afterwards.

I know so many people here who are wary of the vaccine, it's going to be hard to roll it out. People living in the UK really can't imagine how deeply entrenched a wariness towards central authorities and mass campaigns like that is here. The history of a country affects it for a very, very long time.

DS1's lycée has been doing 1 week in school/1 week at home for months now, in half groups.

I listened to an interview with a critical care dr from a Paris hospital last week on Radio 4. He said a lot of French people aren’t taking up the vaccine even when offered it, including health care workers. I’m not sure if they’re anti all vacs or just mistrustful of the covid vac.

I’m not sure if they’re anti all vacs or just mistrustful of the covid vac.

A bit of both, probably.
I have a friend who's a nurse and she is very hesitant about being vaccinated because she thinks there may well be long-term side effects that are as yet unknown.

UK 150k deaths pop 67 million
China pop 1.4 billion so that would be 3.1 million deaths instead of 4636. Gosh what an evil regime they are letting just over 3 million people live unnecessarily when they could have easily let them die AND wrecked their economy at the same time AND kept their entire population under severe restrictions for about 18 months. They must be absolutely kicking themselves for taking the approach they did.

Bless. Poster who actually believes the numbers which have come out of China.

And more sinisterly, is OK with people being sealed into their houses.

@AuldAlliance

Indoor mixing in private homes has been always legal in France

It has, limited to 6 people and a recommendation to stay within a bubble. But the messages have got lost over the last few months.

TBH, I don't really know anyone who's been breaking that 6-person rule in France, but I am very aware that lots of people probably are.

I agree that most people are not social distancing here; only a tiny minority are using hand gel at the entrance to shops or, in my local supermarket, taking one of the anti-theft tabs you're meant to pick up as you go in so that they can adhere to the maximum capacity. And the ski season, where lifts were shut so the lower slopes were mobbed (so I was told, I did not witness this as I didn't go anywhere near a ski resort) was clearly meant to try and help some hotels and the cafés and bars doing takeaway to survive, but there was a big spike afterwards.

I know so many people here who are wary of the vaccine, it's going to be hard to roll it out. People living in the UK really can't imagine how deeply entrenched a wariness towards central authorities and mass campaigns like that is here. The history of a country affects it for a very, very long time.

DS1's lycée has been doing 1 week in school/1 week at home for months now, in half groups.

God bless them. Although not sure why they elected Macron. Presumably there'd be widespread protest on the streets of France if they tried it on with the stealth police state legislation as they're doing in the UK, where we lap it up and ask for more.

Not a resident but have a friend in Italy (near Naples). They had an incredibly strict lockdown last year, she couldn't leave her house even for exercise, essential shopping/work/medical care only

Yep and trawl back through a million MN posts from last year and you'll find a few thousand going on about how we didn't have a "proper" lockdown in the UK and everyone should be locked in their homes and how dare anyone go out for exercise...much good it did them - the virus ebbs and flows and there's not a lot you can do about it other than lock down for a bit and open up for a bit until everyone is vaccinated.

only a tiny minority are using hand gel at the entrance to shops

The hand gel is covid theatre and makes no difference to infection rates (though it might reduce the incidence of norovirus)