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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

982 replies

boys3 · 17/03/2021 18:25

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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89
sirfredfredgeorge · 22/03/2021 07:51

The Time reporting that all adults will now be asked to test themselves twice a week

The best result of LFD's for false positives is 1 in 1000, instantly we'd have more false positive cases than real cases, it would utterly destroy faith in the testing system, everyone will personally know someone who's had a false positive and will disengage entirely.

Doomsdayiscoming · 22/03/2021 07:53

@sirfredfredgeorge

The Time reporting that all adults will now be asked to test themselves twice a week

The best result of LFD's for false positives is 1 in 1000, instantly we'd have more false positive cases than real cases, it would utterly destroy faith in the testing system, everyone will personally know someone who's had a false positive and will disengage entirely.

Exactly.

Plus all the plastic waste etc.

Just do the sewage idea, plus LFT surge in breakout areas, followed up by rapid PCR. Identify positives. Do proper test and trace. Financially compensate those who have to isolate. Job done. It’s really not hard.

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:02

Routine LFTs for all sounds a great idea to me - the key purpose of testing is to identify and isolate stick people, remember. Tracking the case rate is secondary. (We have the ONS study and React to do that more accurately). The stats on the dashboard suggest that about a third of positive LFTs are being confirmed via PCR, so at least a third of the people being identified via LFTs are actually positive. Isolating all those people will surely help to stop the spread?

We could of course improve the stats we get from testing quite easily by ensuring we follow positives up with a PCR test, and report them separately.

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:04

The sewage testing sounds interesting. Is it possible to do the sequencing and identify new variants from the sewage testing then?

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:10

Can anyone explain this to me: publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/02/23/covid-19-analysing-first-vaccine-effectiveness-in-the-uk/ This UK based study says that the risk of hospitalisation among those who catch Covid anyway after vaccination is 40%. And the risk of death is 56% lower. However, the new US study being reported today BBC News - Covid vaccine: US trial of AstraZeneca jab confirms safety
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56479462 suggests that the AZ vaccine reduces severe disease by 100%! How can these both be right? Is it 40% reduction or 100%? They're very different.

Piggywaspushed · 22/03/2021 08:11

Routine LFTs for schools have cause mayhem here today. More than 10 sixth formers tested positive at the weekend. Obviously, I am trying to see this as a good thing but I am struggling. So many students out.

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:12

Sorry that should have said the risk of hospitalisation is 40% lower

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/03/2021 08:18

My objection is nothing to do with the data, it's specifically about the isolation, isolation requires testing, as soon as people stop having faith in the testing, they'll stop testing - and they will not discriminate between LFD and PCR accuracy, the lack of faith in the first will fail over to the second.

So now, society will be more opened (the you should test stick has to go with a carrot) but compliance with all testing will be down, which will mean more infectious people with more contacts, not less.

Frazzled2207 · 22/03/2021 08:20

@Piggywaspushed

Routine LFTs for schools have cause mayhem here today. More than 10 sixth formers tested positive at the weekend. Obviously, I am trying to see this as a good thing but I am struggling. So many students out.
Oh dear are they now at the point they’re doing them at home so are now going for pcrs to see if they get cancelled out? If lfts have caught true positives though, that’s very good news. It would seem unlikely that all are false positives
CarpeVitam · 22/03/2021 08:21

.

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/03/2021 08:22

@Firefliess isn't it because of the large number of people who are hospitalised for covid come from groups who are at very high risk of hospitalisation for all sorts of other reasons, the vaccines don't remove them being hospitalised for other reasons coincidently with their covid diagnosis (all that was measured in the UK one, just admission for any reason) whereas the US one was attempting to be specific to covid clinical diagnosis rather than simply being positive in a test.

Frazzled2207 · 22/03/2021 08:27

@Firefliess

Can anyone explain this to me: publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/02/23/covid-19-analysing-first-vaccine-effectiveness-in-the-uk/ This UK based study says that the risk of hospitalisation among those who catch Covid anyway after vaccination is 40%. And the risk of death is 56% lower. However, the new US study being reported today BBC News - Covid vaccine: US trial of AstraZeneca jab confirms safety www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56479462 suggests that the AZ vaccine reduces severe disease by 100%! How can these both be right? Is it 40% reduction or 100%? They're very different.
The first link means I think that if you catch covid after vaccinating your chance of being hospitalised should you catch it is reduced by 40%, but your chance in the first place of being hospitalised (or even catching the virus) was never that high. Overall therefore for the vaccinated less than 1% will end up in hospital.

So it would therefore follow that the chances of your being hospitalised with covid after having a vaccination are close to 100%. Obviously in the real world it will be less than that but they won’t have a big enough sample (yet). I think.

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:28

I think people will get the hang of confirming a home test with a more accurate lab one ok. Some won't have faith and won't do them, certainly, but there's nothing lost there comparing to not having them. I agree that carrots would help incentivise usage - though think that people will create their own incentives by testing in advance of going to meet friends or family. So doing something that want to do, and making it a bit safer.

@piggy - 10 false positives among one social group (your sixth formers) would seem unlikely statistically. More likely they're genuine positives - and great that they're now out of school!

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:35

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]@Firefliess isn't it because of the large number of people who are hospitalised for covid come from groups who are at very high risk of hospitalisation for all sorts of other reasons, the vaccines don't remove them being hospitalised for other reasons coincidently with their covid diagnosis (all that was measured in the UK one, just admission for any reason) whereas the US one was attempting to be specific to covid clinical diagnosis rather than simply being positive in a test.[/quote]
Interesting theory. Maybe. But that would mean that the 40% reduction in hospitalisations is actually a 100% reduction and the other 60% were all in hospital anyway (or admitted for other reasons)? And likewise with the deaths - 44% would have happened anyway? Are people who catch Covid that much more likely to be hospitalised and die than the general population? Possibly, if a large proportion of infections are taking place in hospitals or care homes I guess.

JanFebAnyMonth · 22/03/2021 08:39

Helen Whateley (who?) in R4 saying genomic sequencing for variants is being trialled and will hopefully be rolled out to every lab such that every positive is sequenced, with the time from taking test to (lab, possibly you?) getting result reduced to 48 hours! Much better for tracing.

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/03/2021 08:40

Possibly, if a large proportion of infections are taking place in hospitals or care homes I guess

The vaccinated group at the time of validation had quite a bias to care homes, particularly the vaccinated group and with a high chance of catching covid during lockdown.

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:42

@JanFebAnyMonth

Helen Whateley (who?) in R4 saying genomic sequencing for variants is being trialled and will hopefully be rolled out to every lab such that every positive is sequenced, with the time from taking test to (lab, possibly you?) getting result reduced to 48 hours! Much better for tracing.
I was just listening to that. It gives the potential to actually contact trace, which is great, and a lot more focused than the area-based surge testing which is all they've been about to do so far.
Motorina · 22/03/2021 08:42

@Firefliess I think it works like this.

Take a million unvaccinated people. Ten percent get covid. That's 100,000.
Of that 100,000, 20% end up in hospital. That's 20,000.

Take a million vaccinated people. The vaccine reduces infection by 80%. So 20% of the 100,000 you'd expect without the vaccine get sick. That's 20,000.
Without the vaccine, you'd expect 20% of those to end up in hospital. That's 4000 people. The vaccine reduces that by 40%, so only 2400 end up in hospital.

The vaccine effects are cumulative. So by the time you reduce infection numbers, and then reduce hospitalisation numbers, 20,000 hospitalisations per million people turns into 2400 per million. Huge difference!

With those numbers, the overall impact on hospitalisation rates is 88%. My population is a million people, so you can see that the protection against hospitalisation isn't perfect.

In the American study, the total population was 32,000. Assuming half had the vaccine (haven't read the study yet) that's only 17,000 people. Entirely possible that the vaccine was sufficiently effective in that cohort that noone got sick enough to end up in hospital, just because the numbers were smaller. So it looks as if protection was 100%

This is, by the way, what confidence intervals are all about. If you read the actual study, you won't see that it's 80% effective. You'll see something like "80% (69-94%)". That means that they reckon the protection is around 80%, and they're 95% confident that it lies between 69% and 94%. As a rule of thumb, the bigger the population then the smaller the confidence interval and the more powerful the research, because you reduce the effects of chance.

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:44

@sirfredfredgeorge

Possibly, if a large proportion of infections are taking place in hospitals or care homes I guess

The vaccinated group at the time of validation had quite a bias to care homes, particularly the vaccinated group and with a high chance of catching covid during lockdown.

Yes that's true. And more generally the main contact (and hence opportunity to catch Covid) that most elderly people had during lockdown would have been via healthcare - so not unrelated to being hospitalised for other reasons!
Piggywaspushed · 22/03/2021 08:46

This is true firefliess. It is just so deflating.

It does make one wonder rather exactly how many we had in school before Xmas when the Kent variant came to visit.

MRex · 22/03/2021 08:47

@Piggywaspushed

Routine LFTs for schools have cause mayhem here today. More than 10 sixth formers tested positive at the weekend. Obviously, I am trying to see this as a good thing but I am struggling. So many students out.
10 together won't be an error, the important thing is that they and their families are all now isolating. That is exactly how LFTs help. Maybe LFTs missed the first case, or maybe it was someone who refused to test, or maybe they had a party... But the 10 could have become 50 at school, plus a raft of people their families come into contact with.
MRex · 22/03/2021 08:51

Thanks for doing the maths on that @Motorina. What's your view on the proportion of vaccinated people who are found to be covid positive but admitted to hospital for other things, is that a tiny fraction or quite a lot?

Firefliess · 22/03/2021 08:57

Does anyone have a link to the US study? I can't seem to find one, and should indeed have a look at the numbers of Covid cases they had in it to help answer my own question.

MRex · 22/03/2021 09:00

No, but this link says 32,499 participants: www.cnbc.com/2021/03/22/astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-79percent-effective-in-us-trial.html

Motorina · 22/03/2021 09:01

@MRex no idea, sorry. Haven't read the research (has anyone found it yet?)

In a population of 32k one would expect hospitalisations to be quite low in normal circumstances?

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