I think it’s going to get worse...

[Silverthorny]

...I don’t want to be doom and gloom, but I think the virus will mutate to evade the vaccine - and potentially become more deadly. I think we will face a third wave.

Have you been watching Songbird?

@Beebityboo

There's actually lots of talk in the scientific community about the virus not being able to mutate much further. If this is true vaccine redundancy isn't going to happen and so far every vaccine works against the new strains. These vaccines are miraculous and working better than anyone thought they would.

Yes early thinking has been good on this

If there is a third wave, it better bring forth a zombie apocalypse because I’ve a years worth of pent up frustration that needs an outlet. If I’m going to die, I’m going out fighting. Bring it on.

So long term impact - priorities should be 1)a better future for our children 2) curb our impact on the planet.

I have a Cambridge degree too. Doesn't qualify me to comment knowledgeably on virus mutation though. Must have been off sick the day they covered that 🙄

Yes, I'm also confused by the mention of an unspecified Cambridge degree as evidence of expertise. My friend has a Cambridge degree, but as it's in English, it's bugger all use for predicting pandemics.

I have a maths background, which the OP also specified as useful here. I'm certainly familiar with an exponential curve and it's useful for looking critically at the stats and data, but that's about it on the pandemic front.

@Silverthorny

...I don’t want to be doom and gloom, but I think the virus will mutate to evade the vaccine - and potentially become more deadly. I think we will face a third wave.

I don't want to be doom and gloom. But I'm totally going to be! OK cool

@CornishYarg it was a weak attempt to assert my intelligence.

I sometimes feel posters like this actually want everyone to be scared and everything to be shit. How odd.

And I fully admit that I don’t ‘know’, I want people to argue against me.

My concern is that guidelines relied on a co-operative population. I do think the majority now choose to dissent? And this is exactly the behaviour model that was predicted.

@Silverthorny

My concern is that guidelines relied on a co-operative population. I do think the majority now choose to dissent? And this is exactly the behaviour model that was predicted.

Do they? Do you have the source

Also if predicted then taken into account

So with a population that is desperate to socialise, a vaccine in its early stages, a third wave rising in the rest of Europe - am I right to voice my concerns?

Well, a year ago, people were saying that we couldn't lock down, that people would never accept it.

We have had 2 lock downs now, and people worked with it in a fantastic way, from what I have seen.

We have effective vaccines, giving over 50% protection to the most vulnerable elements of the population (possibly much higher, depending on which studies you quote and what sort of protection you are discussing etc).

The government has in recent weeks been insisting on quarantine arrangements.

All of my DC's class are wearing masks and about 95% are being tested.

The daily incidence in his school's area has fallen to 1/35 of the rate just 2 months ago.

I think it is very encouraging. There's definitely a lot of hope there.

If and when there is a major problem with variants, I believe we can deal with it, we have come this far.

typo, 3 lockdowns

Well there's fuck all I can do about it so I'm not wasting energy worrying about it

@Loopyloututu2

starfish88 I don't want to be doom and gloom either but I have a sense that if sharks mutated to have legs then things would be very bad for us.

You know, someone really should make the movie of that! I’d watch it...

You haven't yet watched Sharktopus, then?

You should.
or not

Also - I’m questioning the way I constantly enforce my adult ways on my children, particularly in regards to acceptable behaviour/how they should eat/persuasion to achieve. When their natural instincts and behaviour might actually cause less impact on society.

I approve of ‘childish’. ‘Adultish’ and the world we’ve created for our children is not great.

there was a former public health guy on R4 this evening talking about the decision to allow the Liverpool Madrid match this time last year & what a crazily stupid decision it was, he had a ticket for the match but didn't go.

anyhow, he went on to say that if we open up too soon, we risk a 3rd wave the spring/summer, as the virus is now appearing to cause less deaths but more sickness.

personally, i think he right, we need to be cautious BUT i ve booked a holiday in late June i'm an optimist..

E.g DS (2) was attempting to gobble up all the crumbs on the floor below his high chair. I’m declaring - no!! it’s filthy!!. However, if Id let DS continue - it’s probably not that filthy (considering the amount of cleaning products I use on it) and stops food waste). Similarly - DS is desperate to run outside in the wind and rain with no clothes on - yet I’m saying no!!! He doesn’t care?? Probably good for him!

He’s probably more at risk from the awful chemicals I use to clean the floor...

@Bluethrough yes - and I’m bloody desperate to see Duran Duran in Hyde Park. So if I do a bit of ‘Donald Trump’-whatever-I-want-to-happen-will-happen type thinking, will that work??

There is voicing a concern (which those such as Chris Whitty are doing) and stating you think it is going to happen in the way that you did.

I think Silverthorny the way I have gotten through this is living with hope - so at the moment I am pleased the children are back at school and am hopefully that it will stay that way. I am also hoping and sorting out holidays in the summer (both in the UK and my moved one from last year) and am jointly planning both (though only one is possible).

Because hope is positive - I have theatre tickets booked for September (and now January that was suppose to be this month) and have arranged days out in Easter once it opens.

So I work with thinking that it is going to happen, because that is running naked in the wind and rain. It makes me feel better. Because I also know that if it doesnt and a third wave hits I will cope and I will cope better because I only start to do so when I need to. I have lived the time before that as best I can feeling as positive as I can.

There is really no point living in fear of what will happen now because we have been there before and gotten through. I would rather live postively

@Quartz2208 that’s a lovely post.

There probably will be a third wave. It won't be as bad now that we have a vaccine and they will be able to adapt the vaccine as needed. I'm sure the Daily Mail will print some sort of sensationalist headline when there is the slightest hint of a 3rd wave to scare the masses.....

Whatever happens we won't be in lockdown forever, we're through the worst of it.