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Covid

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I think it’s going to get worse...

205 replies

Silverthorny · 11/03/2021 14:27

...I don’t want to be doom and gloom, but I think the virus will mutate to evade the vaccine - and potentially become more deadly. I think we will face a third wave.

OP posts:
CuriousaboutSamphire · 11/03/2021 16:00

Yes! REM were right!

It is the end of the world as we know it.

Myalternate · 11/03/2021 16:00

I'm more concerned about the possibility of sharks with legs! 😕

bumbleymummy · 11/03/2021 16:02

Just as likely to mutate into something milder. :)

Artesia · 11/03/2021 16:02

[quote Silverthorny]@PhilCornwall1 no! One has Cambridge Degree, my partner Physics degree, me Biology, sister Maths/Physics.[/quote]
I have a Cambridge degree too. Doesn't qualify me to comment knowledgeably on virus mutation though. Must have been off sick the day they covered that 🙄

Dissimilitude · 11/03/2021 16:03

Remember, there's a trade-off between mutating to avoid anti-bodies, but retaining the effectiveness of the spike protein which is it's route into our cells - it's not simply a case of being able to continually optimise its "vaccine avoidance capability".

Every time it mutates, we can detect it and add those variants to future vaccines. But there's probably a limited set of mutations that both improve its ability to avoid antibodies AND retain its level of effectiveness at entering our cells.

After a few rounds of this back-and-forth between evolving virus and evolving vaccine, we'll likely get on top of it.

Quartz2208 · 11/03/2021 16:03

[quote Silverthorny]@Quartz2208 the plan is to move forwards, but we’ve been advised to do this with caution. It’s unpredictable. I don’t think we are in the clear yet, and I think it could come back harder as we try and fight against it.[/quote]
Well yes of course because every single thing that we do adds to the R number and you have to do it gradually. That is a sensible approach to keeping it under control alongside being vaccinated.

And the less around the less scope there is for it to mutate.

But none of those facts dont lead into what you are saying?

Totallyfedup1979 · 11/03/2021 16:04

Right!

I need:
Bread flour
Toilet rolls
Hand sanitiser

In that order.

VettiyaIruken · 11/03/2021 16:05

Who knows ?
Anything is possible although viruses that kill the host are not very good viruses! Imo it's more likely to mutate to be less severe but more contagious.

Yes, it's certainly possible there will be more lockdowns or other restrictions, but it'll be fine in the end.

bumbleymummy · 11/03/2021 16:07

@Totallyfedup1979 don’t forget the yeast! Grin

starfish88 · 11/03/2021 16:08

Damn it, I forgot the 'i'm afraid' off my sharkpocalypse prediction. Now it probably won't happen. (that's how it works, obviously). Maybe if I throw in an 'unfortunately' or a 'sorry'...

thenewduchessofhastings · 11/03/2021 16:09

The Spanish flu mutated off to a seasonal flu and without vaccinations or the technology and understanding of these viruses we now do.That gives me some hope at least.

Cornettoninja · 11/03/2021 16:14

Considering there is already development of vaccines to target new variants and reports that it can’t mutate much more (I’m not scientific at all but perhaps this is why the newer variants seem to have much in common??)

I don’t think it’s time to put the plan to hitch a ride on a comet into action just yet.

notrub · 11/03/2021 16:18

@VettiyaIruken

Who knows ? Anything is possible although viruses that kill the host are not very good viruses! Imo it's more likely to mutate to be less severe but more contagious.

Yes, it's certainly possible there will be more lockdowns or other restrictions, but it'll be fine in the end.

Imo it's more likely to mutate to be less severe but more contagious.

This is a common misconception.

Viruses mutate SOLELY based on their ability to spread - i.e. mutations which make them more contagious are preferred.

With viruses that cause serious illness quickly, there is a strong evolutionary driver to becoming less severe so they don't kill the host before it has had time to infect others.

However, since covid has both a VERY long incubation period, during which it is still infectious, and already mild for most people, there is no incentive for it to become less severe.

A mutation that makes it more contagious, MAY make it less severe, or it may make it more - the Kent strain for example is estimated to be considerably more severe.

I'm not predicting anything here note - just saying that we need to stop focusing purely on the best possible things that can happen and be prepared for all possible scenarios.

People need to stop jumping at scare stories because the media is largely clueless, but equally they shouldn't believe we're home and dry because of vaccines. There's no universal advice here because some people have no concept of risk while others are terrified of shadows.

The key thing is that we get as many people as possible vaccinated as quickly as possible and if we don't rush things we should be well protected as a population, although I think SOME measures will have to remain until the vaccine has been proven for children and we can get THAT program going.

Hexinthecity · 11/03/2021 16:18

Ironically your first post gave me a laugh and cheered me right up op Grin

Myalternate · 11/03/2021 16:19

[quote bumbleymummy]@Totallyfedup1979 don’t forget the yeast! Grin[/quote]
And the pasta!

Silverthorny · 11/03/2021 16:19

@Dissimilitude thank you! But how long will this take? I firmly believe that we will get there in the end. But it doesn’t ‘feel’ to me like we are over the worst. The vaccine is a big step, but I think it will be an instant solution.

OP posts:
Silverthorny · 11/03/2021 16:19

Sorry - don’t think...

OP posts:
user1497873278 · 11/03/2021 16:21

Yes there could be potentially a third wave and yes it could be worse than what we have already experienced. We don’t know how it’s going to mutate, but personally I’m hoping it becomes less of a threat as others have said, why not look at how well we have done with vaccines, and how deaths are falling, let’s hope for the best, after all if the worst happens they at least have vaccines now that can be tweaked, keep positive and try to read less of the dramatic headlines 🤷‍♀️

Silverthorny · 11/03/2021 16:21

If things were calming down world wide, I think I’d feel more settled.

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Flowerlane · 11/03/2021 16:23

What a strange thread?Confused

Many people are already depressed and praying for this lockdown to end the last thing they need is for people like you be putting this out there. I’m all for free speech but on this one keep your bloody thoughts to yourself. There is just no needAngry

Silverthorny · 11/03/2021 16:23

@user1497873278 to an extent. I DO want to keep positive, but I don’t think it’ll do me any favours to filter out what is inconvenient to hear.

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Totallyfedup1979 · 11/03/2021 16:25

Oh my GOD!!!

Bread flour
Yeast
Pasta
Toilet roll
Hand sanitiser

Oh! And bathroom foam!

VettiyaIruken · 11/03/2021 16:25

Maybe people who don't want to read about coronavirus related threads could hide the coronavirus topic rather than have a go at people posting coronavirus questions and worries in the coronavirus topic. 🤷‍♀️

user1497873278 · 11/03/2021 16:25

Forgot to add asteroids narrowly miss us every few years, with the potential to wipe us all out, even lockdowns wouldn’t stop that one, but we don’t all seek constant info on them, or by telescopes 😁

Silverthorny · 11/03/2021 16:26

@Totallyfedup1979 - you forgot the sand...

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