Whitty warns: Its not over

[palacegirl77]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56334902

Not surprising when you look at the Spanish Flu model. Need everyone to get those vaccines!

@Beaniecats

The things you post suggest you are really struggling. The conspiracies you seem to believe in are just not real, someone like Whitty is earning no more money but working twice as hard. He has nothing to gain personally. I hope you feel better soon

@ChameleonClara quite a leap from taking my viceral response as wanting the population to be lied to! What makes me a sensible person is that my second thought after 'fuck off' is, no, Chris Whitty is a good egg, I'm sure he's right, but I just don't need to hear this right now.

Of course I don't want the population lied to, however there's now a roadmap, cases are still plummeting, as are deaths and admissions. Obviously the next stage is to see what impact opening schools has, the only scientific message we need to hear until early April is what early evidence emerges on schools and now that we have most of the most vulnerable protected, what impact this has on the health service.

Nostratdamus type predctions can wait until we actually start opening up and seeing what people do - which will get less sensible the longer people are cooped up for.

One thing I really think they need to do is relax the rules on social bubbles to allow people to have close but limited contact between households. It will cause an uptake in cases and deaths, but it will also mitigate the other, more insidious casualties of this pandemic. Mental health services were already chronically overstretched. There will not be the resources to cope with a rise in demand. To put this into perspective, when I was actively suicidal two years ago, I did not actually fit the criteria for support from the community crisis team, I was assessed and then left on a waiting list to fend for myself - if we hadn't been able to afford private treatment I probably wouldn't be here today. That is how underfunded services already are in the UK.

My family live in a country where there have been curfews, closures of schools and non-essential businesses, compulsory mask wearing and a ban on indoor and outdoor gatherings above a certain number of people. What they have never done is prevent close families from seeing each other indoors (although there is a cap on numbers, ie not gathering in double figures). The difference in terms of mental health and resilience in terms of weathering / supporting the other restrictions is massive.

for everyone on this thread who has also reached their limit.

because I am a sensible person with a huge respect for them, but my instant response to any negative messaging now is ‘fuck off’.

I think the second part of your statement contradicts the first part.

@MrsFezziwig what makes me a sensible person is that my second thought after 'fuck off' is, no, Chris Whitty is a good egg, I'm sure he's right, but I just don't need to hear this right now. You should judge people who are open and honest about their initial gut reactions - it’s what you do with them next which is what is important. Do remember this, it’s important for good mental health.

Sorry that should say ‘shouldn’t judge’ @MrsFezziwig

CW could warn me it was raining fire outside and id want to go out and check at this point.

@SooziQue

CW could warn me it was raining fire outside and id want to go out and check at this point.

Why? What has he said that has led you to belive he is lying?

Specifically...

[quote TheHouseElf]I can across an interview (long) with a guy called Geert Vanden Bossche PhD today, who is a Vaccinology Expert. I'll put the link for YouTube at the end, but it is a long video (1hr 48).

Basically he's saying that we are at the edge of a tsunami of a 3rd wave that has been caused because of lockdown and the mass vaccination programme. That the virus has been put under "pressure" because of that, and so had mutated into variants which are now more infectious etc. He says those who are now partially vaccinated (ie first jabs only with many weeks/months before the next jab) should be put into isolation, as otherwise if they catch Covid again, they will have it a-symptomatically, which enables the virus to mutate again, and pass it onto younger people.

Look: I'm not clever enough to know most of the stuff he's talking about, and I'm not endorsing it, but as someone who's in the next batch of vaccinations ages, I found it really interesting (and a little daunting). It certainly has given me even more stuff to think about.

If you're interested, checked it out - in the comments there are some timings if you want to just look at particular sections.

[/quote] @TheHouseElf letting Covid run riot (see Brazil) leads to the development of new variants. Not sure what this guy is advocating if he sees lockdown and vaccination as the problem and his ideas certainly seem to go against the mainstream. As far as I'm aware, there is also no evidence that people who have had one dose of the vaccine are more likely to have asymptomatic covid, quite the opposite in fact.

I think there are arguments within the scientific community over this.

I’ve read articles supporting both arguments. So one argument is that lockdowns cause mutations by shielding healthy young people who would have had a milder version you are causing it to mutate to survive.

The other side of the argument is that letting it run unchecked in the population causes mutations.

These people are experts with years of experience in this area. So I’m not quick to dismiss either side. There’s just no consensus and it’s not clear cut.

The way out has always been said to be through track and trace which still isn’t working. Surely that’s one of the biggest blocks to ‘freedom’ (& costed a hell of a lot more than Chris Whitty).

Nostratdamus type predctions

Epidemiological modelling is not a 'Nostradamus-type prediction'.

We need that modelling to help us plan. If the modelling exists, in can either be kept secret (as it will be in China, Russia) or it can be public - it should be public.

We live in a democracy. One of the features of a democracy is the population are treated like adults.

Anyone who can't handle facts direct from senior officials should switch off.

People saying we should open up faster and "we have to live now, tough about the deaths" have missed the point spectacularly because it is not an either/or situation.

If we don't open up slowly, the outcome will be worse. Yes, economically as well.

I think we did miss the opportunity to get track and trace working properly over the summer when cases were low.

I think they needed to introduce a payment though. You can have the most effecting track and trace in the world but if people take no notice when called..(because they don’t want to lose wages) Plus people giving out false numbers, not answering the phone.

They also were too slow to trace.
Then once cases reach a certain level it’s too hard to keep on top of them.

There was a track and person on the radio today saying she’s very quiet at the moment.

Claims of that guy Geert Van... have been heartily slagged off on LockDown Skeptics of all places.

Seems like he stopped original publishing in 1997.

I don't understand Vareco company being listed by GVB as a vaccine development company & a tiny turnover flooring company in Antwerp (same postcode = 2100, next door to each other, #23 & #25) but ok. One of them isn't paying its way, probably. There are Lots of companies in Europe called Vareco, and G-van-den-Bossche is a very common name.

Diversity of opinions in science is good but not every diverse opinion is credible.

Ethelfromnumber73 - if you have the time, it is worth watching - although we had to pause it to try and get our heads around some of the science behind it - but it is a bit of a mission.

The genie is already out of the bottle, as the world went down the lockdown and the vaccine route (particularly the UK having being so "successful" with it). He is a vaccine development expert, with some 30 odd years experience, so he's not anti-vaxer.

He believes that we're going to have a 3rd wave (very soon, next couple of months) precisely BECAUSE of lockdowns (which has stopped our bodies being 'exercised' by the usual bombardment of germs, bacteria etc, so our immunities aren't as good as they were) and vaccines (which he says do work - on a personal individual level, but are not good for populations collectively).

He basically says we should have let the virus run its natural course, but of course, there would have been massive death numbers - however, at the end of it we would have had ourselves developed the immunity with our NK-Cells and T-Cells working for us.

I wish I was personally clever enough to really know what is the best course of action is/was. As others had said, scientists will disagree. I'm not advocating for him, but do think its important that we get to hear those other voices. As someone who's about to go into the next age bracket for the vaccine roll-out, its definitely concerned me.

If the vaccines are 80% effective (perhaps they will be more?) at stopping hospitalisations, and 75% of adults will take up the offer it will still leave millions of people vulnerable to needing NHS care if Covid spreads without any other mitigations in place.

You realize that the vaccines are all close to100% effective at preventing hospitalizations? Takeup rates are also likely to be higher than 75% as takeup is rising all the time.

Some vaccine refusers will die. Let them. If you refuse the vaccine, you're taking the risk of dying on a hospital trolley, frankly.

@TheHouseElf

Ethelfromnumber73 - if you have the time, it is worth watching - although we had to pause it to try and get our heads around some of the science behind it - but it is a bit of a mission.

The genie is already out of the bottle, as the world went down the lockdown and the vaccine route (particularly the UK having being so "successful" with it). He is a vaccine development expert, with some 30 odd years experience, so he's not anti-vaxer.

He believes that we're going to have a 3rd wave (very soon, next couple of months) precisely BECAUSE of lockdowns (which has stopped our bodies being 'exercised' by the usual bombardment of germs, bacteria etc, so our immunities aren't as good as they were) and vaccines (which he says do work - on a personal individual level, but are not good for populations collectively).

He basically says we should have let the virus run its natural course, but of course, there would have been massive death numbers - however, at the end of it we would have had ourselves developed the immunity with our NK-Cells and T-Cells working for us.

I wish I was personally clever enough to really know what is the best course of action is/was. As others had said, scientists will disagree. I'm not advocating for him, but do think its important that we get to hear those other voices. As someone who's about to go into the next age bracket for the vaccine roll-out, its definitely concerned me.

I've got a science background. Letting the virus 'run its course' leads to variants (as in Brazil and also as demonstrated here when the Kent variant arose). Natural immunity can also be sidestepped by variants (apparently as in Brazil). It is definitely not as simple as natural infection good, vaccination bad. Every strategy has downsides and letting the virus rip would have flattened the NHS so it's a moot point anyway

Do remember this, it’s important for good mental health

My mental health is fine @Hollyhead, but thanks for your feeble attempt at patronising me concern. I didn’t need to have a negative reaction to Chris Whitty’s words because I recognise that he is only saying them to reinforce the need to proceed as planned, rather than do as some factions both on here and in the real world would do and throw caution to the winds when it finally seems that we might be getting into a decent position.

I have to say I'm getting a bit fed up with this now. All the public health figures lining up to spread a message of doom and gloom - if its not COVID then it will be flu etc etc. None of them seem to be looking at their roles in the round - they're all ignoring mental health and the obvious elephant in the room that they have done nothing to improve general public health - its also their job to tackle health inequalities, obesity etc and I haven't seen any of them doing that much around this in previous years.

@Londonmummy66

I have to say I'm getting a bit fed up with this now. All the public health figures lining up to spread a message of doom and gloom - if its not COVID then it will be flu etc etc. None of them seem to be looking at their roles in the round - they're all ignoring mental health and the obvious elephant in the room that they have done nothing to improve general public health - its also their job to tackle health inequalities, obesity etc and I haven't seen any of them doing that much around this in previous years.

That is so true. It will be very interesting to see if any other important health issues attract such attention and interest although I'm guessing not as our CMO only seems interested in anything that puts him in the spotlight

@TheDrsDocMartens

The way out has always been said to be through track and trace which still isn’t working. Surely that’s one of the biggest blocks to ‘freedom’ (& costed a hell of a lot more than Chris Whitty).

Exactly this.

We're screwed if they don't finally produce a functional test and trace instead of this pantomime where most of the people they -ahem- "trace" live with the person who tested positive, and who provided their details. It's a farce. A con. A black hole to pour public money into.

@TheHouseElf, sorry to jump in, and that does sound interesting, but whilst we may have been in a better position with population immunity, economically we would be as bad (personally I believe much worse off but accept that’s an unprovable personal opinion) as we are now but with a much more traumatised population.

Restrictions and lockdowns are to buy time to find artificial solutions to minimise health and economic impacts. It may feel counterproductive if your presented with figures that show all of this could have been further along/almost over by now but it fails to recognise a lot of factors that would undoubtedly arise faced with a high number of sick (some for a long period of time) and dying.

A relatively small percentage of the population have direct real life experience with covid and it’s actual impact is easy to discount if the focus is narrow.

He basically says we should have let the virus run its natural course, but of course, there would have been massive death numbers

Not to mention the catastrophic failure of critical services that keep the country running.

@MrsFezziwig a reaction is something that happens - you can't decide if you need it or not. I'm glad you didn't have a negative initial reaction and that your response is positive. I however had the opposite and was honest about it and you were unkind to me, saying on the basis of one moment of honesty that I therefore couldn't be a sensible person.

One day I'm sure you will have a negative initial viceral response to something that you then go on to think sensibly about and then you'll know what life is like for lesser mortals like me.