Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@piggywaspushed

The testing btw was antibody testing.

The ONS survey referred to tested for both antibodies and current infection. The 1.2% figure quoted relates to current infection, not antibodies

@Firefliess yes, I agree with the general point. Unfortunately the government haven't been very good at explaining infection patterns to date.

The guidance for the school testing is that LFT positives must be confirmed by a PCR test.

Ah, OK , I see firefliess. I do wish they'd stop flinging all this stuff out, half digested (and understood?) by the media but I guess we all know why!

Is that current infection like now?

So, if LFT positives must be confirmed by pCr ones, and people are de-duped in the case data, why are typically 10% of the positives in a week not from pCr (ie the positive pCr test percentage is about 10% lower than the positive cases) ?

@piggywaspushed

Is that current infection like now?

No, it appears from the fuller article (published later today and which someone helpfully linked to on this chain) that it refers to the survey of school pupils and teachers that was undertaken in December. I think it was also targeted at areas with the highest overall rates, so really not a lot of use at all in telling us what kind of positivity rates to expect from the school testing next week. 0.2-0.5% would seem more likely - in line with ONS rates for secondary aged kids, or a bit lower (allowing for further fall in the last week or two, and also the kids who are actually ill with Covid not being in school)

Yes, that is what I though : it is a bit misleadingly headlined by the BBC.

@sirfredfredgeorge

So, if LFT positives must be confirmed by pCr ones, and people are de-duped in the case data, why are typically 10% of the positives in a week not from pCr (ie the positive pCr test percentage is about 10% lower than the positive cases) ?

must is a bit misleading, indeed at the wider level where I am for general asymptomatic testing a positive LFT is now recommended not to be followed by a PCR. Although if it was me who tested positive via an LFT I’d be very tempted to follow up with a PCR test.

Otherwise your point would be completely right.

Positive cases / deaths

Tuesday 3 February 19,202 / 1,322
Tuesday 10 February 13,013 / 1,001
Tuesday 17 February 12,718 / 738
Tuesday 23 February 8,489 / 548
Tuesday 2 March 6,391 / 343

Thanks MRex, I will have a read.

I'm enjoying the spread of the light green and white on the map.

I'm betting with the start of LFTs that we'll be at 7500 again on Monday, slight increases through the week up to 10,000 and then plummeting again the week after. Anyone else like to play guess-the-numbers with me?

I'm not sure that numbers will go up that much. My bet is on kids not doing it properly or just reporting negative and throwing the kit out.
My kid's classmates are on the view that if it's so unreliable what's the point of doing it even? Some are already toying with the idea to use it as a get out of jail free card type of thing.

If David Lawrence from Parents United (formerly known as Parents United Against Unsafe Schools) has got his stats right, there's more than one way the school testing is going affect T&T next week:

www.facebook.com/groups/657607021743154/permalink/871518850351969/

i understand that positive LFTs are included in the daily count and not duplicated if they become a positive PCR. I wonder what happens if the positive LFT is not followed up with a positive PCR

@MRex

I'm enjoying the spread of the light green and white on the map.

Locally we seem to have gone from green islands in a spreading sea of white, to blue in a sea of green over the last few days. No obvious reason, except maybe a suspicion that the timing correlates with the announcement of the roadmap and people taking that as a relaxation of restrictions.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I'm not sure that numbers will go up that much. My bet is on kids not doing it properly or just reporting negative and throwing the kit out. My kid's classmates are on the view that if it's so unreliable what's the point of doing it even? Some are already toying with the idea to use it as a get out of jail free card type of thing.

You mean they report a (different kind of) "false Positive"? I suppose there's no way of stopping this.....

Just had a chat with my neighbour, who is a consultant orthopaedic surgeon. He has just done his first surgical list of the year, as had been seconded to ITU until this week.

The number in his hospital with Covid has more than halved and ITU has pulled back from the theatre it had spread into and returned to its normal capacity. But he said most of the Covid patients in there were in groups that had not yet been vaccinated, i.e. 40’s/50’s. He expressed concern about others in this cohort who have children going back to school next week.

.

Thanks for those figures Alec, looking good :)

Long time lurker here - I've found these threads really useful.

Does anyone know what's happened to the data for Mid Sussex, Horsham and Crawley today? Daily totals are 31, 47 and 75 respectively. Mid Sussex and Horsham have been in single digits recently and Crawley not much higher.

Looking at specimen date, the bulk of these must be historic cases. Any ideas why? The rest of West Sussex looks ok but I'm wondering if there's been another "back of the sofa" moment and, if so, whether it's local or more widely spread...

@PuzzledObserver

Just had a chat with my neighbour, who is a consultant orthopaedic surgeon. He has just done his first surgical list of the year, as had been seconded to ITU until this week.

The number in his hospital with Covid has more than halved and ITU has pulled back from the theatre it had spread into and returned to its normal capacity. But he said most of the Covid patients in there were in groups that had not yet been vaccinated, i.e. 40’s/50’s. He expressed concern about others in this cohort who have children going back to school next week.

That definitely is a worry, plus the teachers who haven't been vaccinated yet. At least those in groups 6+ should have been done, I wonder if teachers in group 6 who haven't been vaccinated yet would be allowed to WFH in some capacity until they are.

@PenguinLost

Long time lurker here - I've found these threads really useful.

Does anyone know what's happened to the data for Mid Sussex, Horsham and Crawley today? Daily totals are 31, 47 and 75 respectively. Mid Sussex and Horsham have been in single digits recently and Crawley not much higher.

Looking at specimen date, the bulk of these must be historic cases. Any ideas why? The rest of West Sussex looks ok but I'm wondering if there's been another "back of the sofa" moment and, if so, whether it's local or more widely spread...

Are deaths also up on those dates?

MRex I haven't been monitoring deaths so am not sure if today's data is unusual compared to previous days but today's figures are:

Mid Sussex - 1/11 (deaths within 28 days/weekly deaths with Covid on the death certificate)
Horsham - 1/11
Crawley - 0/8

So, it doesn't look like this is responsible?

No, I just wondered if it was testing post mortem but then I think both would show on the same day.