Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@ancientgran

Does anyone know if there is any information on transmission rates if you've had the vaccine? I'm hoping if they are so effective transmission rates will be dropping as well but can't find anything up to date on it.

Early Oxford AZ data said about 67%: www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-sustained-protection-76-during-3-month-interval.

Pfizer real world data had come back originally at 70%, now (with higher percentage vaccinated or longer time period?) 86% www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n567.

This may have other detailed info about how they determine transmission (effect on unvaccinated as well as vaccinated): post.parliament.uk/the-performance-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-clinical-trials-and-in-real-world-conditions/.

[quote Firefliess]@MRex. I'm not sure you need to go taking off the numbers who would have died anyway, because aren't the figures we're looking at all comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated people - who presumably die at the same rate as each other from non-Covid related causes? [/quote]
Sort of. What I was thinking was that even if we move everyone into the vaccinated category, are we still seeing a much higher death rate than we would without vaccination and by what percentage. So if normally 1% die and now 2% die, then unless we stamp out almost all covid transmission we will have a permanent increase in death rate for the elderly; not a big impact on life expectancy but still there. A massive argument for vaccinating all the young and children globally. I don't think I have the numbers to calculate that effectively though.

@Firefliess

I have to admit that the BBC article I just linked to is very unclear indeed about which pupils it is they're referring to. Schools have been testing their keyworker kids this week, who might have higher rates given their parents occupations (and the fact that they've been in school themselves all term!)

that is a very good point. Very different to saying that 1%+ of all children are infected!

@Firefliess

BBC are reporting 1.2% of returning pupils and 1.6% of staff to be testing positive www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56249586?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=603df60b4d910a02f0b3eb08%261.2%25%20of%20schoolchildren%20test%20positive%262021-03-02T08%3A48%3A29.896Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:38c396c9-0449-496d-a612-52aa01210200&pinned_post_asset_id=603df60b4d910a02f0b3eb08&pinned_post_type=share

That's going to cause a serious hike in the case rates over the next couple of weeks! I'm not sure how easy it'll be to separate out the cases in schools from others - you could work out the figures from lateral flow test positivity, but if most pupils who test positive go on to have a PCR test to confirm the result, that'll presumably be hard to separate out? We may have to rely on the hospitalisation rates and survey data from the ONS and React studies more to see what's going on over the next few months.

That has to be from tests on KW and vulnerable children who've been in school all term, too early to know results from any early testing yesterday!

I presume this is from Callum Semple's R4 interview a few days ago. He sounded quite decided on the concept of schools spreading any infection.

The other thing is that ONS and REACT might contain particularly scientifically aware and careful families, and so be reporting a different self-selecting group of cautious people with low incidence of infection maybe.

It is likely to be true for REACT.

ONS are very focussed on getting a representative sample and they offer monetary incentives for participating in the survey (store vouchers). There will still be some bias but I would be very surprised if it could skew the result by 100%+.

@Mrex Yes I see now what you're saying re death rates. And yes you're right, the 15% of people not protected from dying would be a lot more deaths than normal if Covid goes on circulating and infecting them. Will be interesting to see what the protection is like by age group though - it could be that the people who the vaccine doesn't protect are mostly the very old and frail who's immune systems we know tend not to react as well to vaccines.

Zoe's numbers have been looking quite good over past few days. The estimated daily transmission rate is now down to 8,748.

I felt slight discomfort when Zoe's estimate flatlined last week (even after adjusting for vaccine side effects) but looks like the downward trend has now restarted.

@wintertravel1980

The other thing is that ONS and REACT might contain particularly scientifically aware and careful families, and so be reporting a different self-selecting group of cautious people with low incidence of infection maybe.

It is likely to be true for REACT.

ONS are very focussed on getting a representative sample and they offer monetary incentives for participating in the survey (store vouchers). There will still be some bias but I would be very surprised if it could skew the result by 100%+.

I have to say, I've always been slightly dubious about ONS because we received the invite (and signed up, but never got contacted to start testing, possibly because they already had too many university-educated middle income 30 somethings) and the invitation letter was so dense, had the details of the financial incentives so buried and described so unclearly and came with so much extra information that I just can't see how you wouldn't end up with a skewed sample, no matter how much you tried to balance it on characteristics. A lot of it they couldn't help - you have to include a lot of information to ensure you're getting informed consent - but it was very, very unapproachably written.

The positivity rate for school transmissions seems to be from early December, according to the full BBC story on there now...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56250995

@Firefliess

BBC are reporting 1.2% of returning pupils and 1.6% of staff to be testing positive www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56249586?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=603df60b4d910a02f0b3eb08%261.2%25%20of%20schoolchildren%20test%20positive%262021-03-02T08%3A48%3A29.896Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:38c396c9-0449-496d-a612-52aa01210200&pinned_post_asset_id=603df60b4d910a02f0b3eb08&pinned_post_type=share

That's going to cause a serious hike in the case rates over the next couple of weeks! I'm not sure how easy it'll be to separate out the cases in schools from others - you could work out the figures from lateral flow test positivity, but if most pupils who test positive go on to have a PCR test to confirm the result, that'll presumably be hard to separate out? We may have to rely on the hospitalisation rates and survey data from the ONS and React studies more to see what's going on over the next few months.

If that's LFTs I wonder how many are confirmed by PCR? Is it possible that they are picking up old asymptomatic infections which people didn't test for at the time? Our household all had it in January, except (as far as we know) ds2. As it's quite possible he did have it then I'll be getting him a community asymptomitic testing LFT done before he has to have the return to school one, so if that does show positive we'll have time to get PCR to confirm/overturn it before he's due in school, rather than miss more days isolating while everyone else returns to face to face lessons. Highly unlikely he'd actually have an active infection as he's literally had contact with nobody but family, who should all have immunity after having it a month ago, within the incubation period.

He said 1.2% of secondary students and 1.6% of teachers had tested positive, quoting a survey published on Monday by the Office for National Statistics. The ONS tested about 12,000 pupils and teachers in early December.

In some areas, only 0.4% of the tests came back positive, Prof Semple said.

So if in some areas only 0.4% of the tests came back positive, then there must have been other areas which were noticeably above 1.2%.

I would expect among returning pupils it to be very low, considerably below average. They will disproportionally have parents working at home, generally won't be going out much, so would expect them to be relatively low risk.

The interesting thing will be to see how it goes up, or do we suspect the government will stop the testing if it starts looking like it might be rising disproportionally?

Does anyone highlight -when talking about lft figures- that the accuracy of these tests are around 50%?
Meaning that these numbers are not reflecting reality.

The ONS infection survey showed the following prevalence for secondary aged children
At 4 December - 2.1%
At 11 December - 2.7%
At 18 December - 3%

So rates of 1.2% in early December don’t sound particularly worrying?

www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1120/age/datadownload.xlsx

Can anyone shed any light on whats happening in Leeds, according to the Zoe app we have been showing lower figures each day but suddenly reporting 2000 cases higher yesterday than the previous Monday

[quote ceeveebee]The ONS infection survey showed the following prevalence for secondary aged children
At 4 December - 2.1%
At 11 December - 2.7%
At 18 December - 3%

So rates of 1.2% in early December don’t sound particularly worrying?

www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1120/age/datadownload.xlsx[/quote]
I guess that would fit with these tests only picking up about 50% of positives.

Sorry I was misrememberedjng what Prof Semple has been talking about when I commented earlier.

For this study it's quite important to note that they only tested the students and staff in school on one particular day. Therefore all the 1000s of children and teachers at home in early December, either because they were awaiting a test, had tested positive or were close contacts, weren't included.

And given that local authorities in some areas of London /SE only had 17% attendance a couple of weeks after the sample week, that will have been a lot of uncounted positives.

The ONS survey was finger prick tests.

Just want to reiterate what jan said. The ONS list limitations as small sample size and absence of sample people on day of test!

There is an outbreak in the prison in Wetherby which is increasing Leeds numbers.

@Artus

Can anyone shed any light on whats happening in Leeds, according to the Zoe app we have been showing lower figures each day but suddenly reporting 2000 cases higher yesterday than the previous Monday

Zoe is not very useful for local areas. If there's not many thousands of app users in Leeds then it'll only take a few infections (maybe all in one household) to appear as a huge spike. You're better off looking at reported case rates to see what's happening locally (for now, at least, until all the school testing skews the figures...)

[quote ILookAtTheFloor]The positivity rate for school transmissions seems to be from early December, according to the full BBC story on there now...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56250995[/quote]
Thanks for that link. Infection rates across the country were much higher in early December than they are now, so it should be much lower rates when they start the mass testing of school pupils. The issue someone's mentioned below about the figures excluding those with known infections who are already self isolating, or close contacts (more likely than average to be positive) would presumably be the same though, so you'd expect to find a lower rate than via the ONS testing which includes people with symptoms who already know they have Covid.

I would expect the rate among school pupils to start out a bit lower than the rate among keyworkers who have regular testing (as the kids have mostly been at home the last few months), but over time to end up higher as increasing proportions of the adult keyworkers are vaccinated.

But the point I was making earlier about the increased testing being enough to affect the overall case rates does still stand - even with a 0.2% positivity rate, on 8m tests being done in a week (90% uptake, 2 tests each) that's 16,000 extra cases picked up.

Of course if the rate rises next week because of the school testing, that will show is a truer picture.

The testing btw was antibody testing.

Ah yes piggy had forgotten that... quite relevant really!

@JanFebAnyMonth

Of course if the rate rises next week because of the school testing, that will show is a truer picture.

It'll be a truer picture in that the reported cases will be somewhat closer to the actual number of infected people (including asymptomatic people). But it could be misinterpreted as a very worrying rise in infections, even if they are falling in reality. People may say "look! Schools open only 2 days and already cases are rising!" They may look at the heat maps of reported cases by age groups and see the dark purple appear in the 10-14 year olds (and the 30-40 something parents) and conclude that opening schools was a terrible mistake. The government will need to be careful to try to control how the figures are reported to avoid this - ideally by separating out the asymptotic cases identified via the schools testing programme from other cases. But that does seem hard to do if people seek out PCR tests to confirm a positive LFT.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Does anyone highlight -when talking about lft figures- that the accuracy of these tests are around 50%? Meaning that these numbers are not reflecting reality.

While this is true, these are used for people who are asymptomatic. So every positive case is one that would otherwise have been missed.