Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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Tomorrow's reported death numbers will be really low if today is 52!

My local aurthority added no cases today. Last time was 11/10 😁😁

Case numbers reported both today and yesterday have been lower than on Saturday and Sunday respectively a week ago. That's despite some increased testing by families of school pupils I would imagine, but without the schools testing itself. Suggests that hopefully cases are still falling.

@Fireflies this is my utter frustration with the dashboard-isation of everything, people just endlessly compare numbers that are simply not representative because the underlying things have changed. Monday to Friday this week was clearly completely different from Monday to Friday a week ago, yet way too many people simply look at lines on a dashboard graph without any deeper analysis.

Even this thread falls for a bit, although less than the media etc. as at least the reasons for changes are discussed, but numbers that are not consistently collected should not be drawn on the same graph.

Especially LFT tests where no-one's got a clue how accurate they!

Bearing in mind sirfed’s comment.

Relating just to England:

Monday to Friday lateral flows:

22nd Feb: 2 million

1st March: 3 million

8th March: 6.5 million

Sat 27th 113k; Sat 6th 183k; Sat 13th 164k

Cases for the week for as confirmed by specimen dates from Monday are slightly lower than the equivalent period in the previous week.

25606 cases added this week so far by spec date, equivalent point last week 26121.

In terms of each day:

Monday 8th

Sixth day of reporting, a whopping 2 cases added today, taking total to 5758, a 3% fall.

Tuesday 9th

Fifth day of reporting 22 cases added, total 5324, a fall of 6%

Wednesday 10th

Fourth day of reporting, 94 cases added, total 5106, an increase of 0.7% on last week

Thursday 11th

Third day of reporting, 431 cases added, total 4681, up 0.5%.

Friday 12th

Second day of reporting with well over 80% of Friday spec dates most likely reported. 2416 cases added, taking total to 3942, up 2%

Saturday 13th

First day of reporting, 795 cases added, 13% lower than equivalent last week.

From my rough calc, cases in the 6 days from 8th March include 5.8k from LFD tests (confirmed and unconfirmed). For the equivalent period the previous week this was 3.8k, and for the week before that also 3.8k.

24.5% less patients in hospital in England week to Saturday.

Pretty good, less than last week but still solid. Need to stay above 20% for a few weeks to get sub 4000 in hospital in U.K. by 12th April. Hopefully some late March warmer weather plus vaccinations kicking in will continue to bring this figure down.

Not sure how you justify holding the May and June openings if there are only 4000 in hospital in early April.

There was an issue with the reporting of deaths yesterday which was going to be corrected in todays figures - does anyone know if this means that the figure is higher or lower than it should be?

@Bordois

There was an issue with the reporting of deaths yesterday which was going to be corrected in todays figures - does anyone know if this means that the figure is higher or lower than it should be?

Additional deaths added to today: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new

Thank you @boys3, that's the just reassuring thing I've seen in a while!

*most not just

Presumably if infections are actually falling, but that's not been so clear in the data this week (because of all the school testing), then we would expect reported cases to resume falling in the next week or so?

@Firefliess
I hope so
Spector said something useful on Twitter earlier, given the suddenly much higher use of LFTs we can count out any notion of getting to 0 in the forseeable. In his opinion getting down to 2,000 ish, given that many will be false positives, would be incredibly good news and proof that covid is no longer significantly spreading. That’s not that far off.

If we do get to zero, will people stop worrying about false positives? Or will joy in that be drowned out by false negative fears?

I've run some numbers. I think we'll have a zero day in roughly mid June. They're too messy to share without being laughed at, but throwing it out there.

Speak of Miacchel Mina and he appears, discussing LFTs with Cristina Pagel and others:

mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1370977010940579852

He recommends 2 serial tests, preferably from different companies (interesting, so they all work slightly differently?) and says: No known false positives on the Innova test in over 5,000 at home and over 15,000 tests on college campuses.
^
Whenever a positive comes up, a second rapid test is used to confirm. PCR is also sent bc these are trials^

I'm sure I've seen some on here are involved with the administration and reporting of their school's LFD test results. Does this reporting process include the home postcode of each DC tested along with their result - I presume it does to maintain consistency with the normal allocation of tests to local geographies?

.

Not me (and yes there was someone) but I work in a secondary and am pretty sure it does @boys3.

I mean there's a need for home postcode for normal case data, but also a need for the case to be linked to the school for outbreak control, isn't there?

DD (17) had to complete her own registration process for the in school testing. It definitely included her home address and GP details (as well as linking her to her college)

Covid is a notifiable disease, it wouldn't be legal to find out about a case and not report full details. Not to say that everyone running testing will know that, but still...

Thanks at @JanFebAnyMonth, @Firefliess. It is probably also in one of the many emails from DS3's school, although as he had covid just before Christmas no in school testing for him as still within the 90 days so not something we've taken much note of. probably not the time or place to rant about how he went on to share it with the rest of us, confirmation on Christmas Day that one's test was positive is not the best of presents

I've run some numbers. I think we'll have a zero day in roughly mid June. They're too messy to share without being laughed at, but throwing it out there

The testing regime has to change before then, if it's that low, it's not sensible to do the level of testing, even supre low false positive numbers become significant if there's no actual cases.

I think it's unlikely that super low cases will actually happen though.

I rather hope that if case numbers fall we'll be able to move to a situation of routine testing in schools a bit more selectively - ie in response to an outbreak.

@Firefliess

I rather hope that if case numbers fall we'll be able to move to a situation of routine testing in schools a bit more selectively - ie in response to an outbreak.

Based on sewage testing! Eventually it must happen!!!