Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@lurker101
good question
Not entirely clear but if you look at case breakdown (available for england only) it is basically split into three
number of LFD cases without positive PCR
number of LFD cases WITH positive PCR (much lower)
number of PCRs - presumably these are not connected to LFDs.
So the fact that they break it down in this way suggests that the number of cases in the top category still stands if there is a negative PCR following on from it

@lurker101
These numbers go via specimen date but for example from the 10th march there were
LFT without pcr 1042
LFT WITH pcr 28 (I would expect more to come and the above number to change but overall number to stay the same)
PCR 3609

[quote lurker101]@Frazzled2207 sorry if I’ve missed it, but if say 600 (random number) of those LFT positives are PCR negatives, would the case numbers be reduced down, or due to the fact that there has been a positive test mean it still qualifies for inclusion in the numbers?[/quote]
There was some discussion about that on a Twitter thread I was reading. Someone who seemed to know what he was talking about said that positive LFTs which were then confirmed by PCR tests would be removed from the LFT case figures - meaning that nothing was double counted. He said that in contrast, LFT positives who then tested negative via PCR (which he said was quite rare) are left in the figures as LFT positives, not confirmed by PCR. Sorry, but I don't have the link to hand to the Twitter thread.

Thanks @Frazzled2207 and @Firefliess I guess that’s the most prudent way and ultimately it doesn’t matter so much (at least in England) as long as they don’t set restrictions based on case numbers. I would be pretty angry if gyms reopening was held back due to positive LFT that were then not confirmed by PCR! But hopefully the numbers will be so low if it’s only 1000/day in England that that wouldn’t have an impact....

As of next week,way more positive LFTs will be confirmed by positive PCR. Because home based LFTs should be confirmed by PCR if positive, but centre based ones don't. Once secondary pupils have had their initial 3 tests in their school testing centre, then they will move to home testing and therefore should get confirmatory PCR if positive.

Anyone know whether the advice to isolate post positive school Lft still stand, even if a subsequent negative Pcr?

Specimen date for overall cases added in England today.

Thursday 11th

1740 added, as compared with 963 equivalent last week. From the dashboard breakdown 929 of today’s are LFDs.

Wednesday 10th

3126 cases added today taking total after second day of reporting to 44679 just over 10% up on the equivalent last week.

Tuesday 9th

Third day of reporting 515 cases added, total 5220, 5% lower than equivalent last week.

Monday 8th

Fourth day of reporting 117 cases added taking total to 5714, 3% lower than equivalent last week.

By spec date starting Monday 17353 cases added so far, at the same point last week 16584 cases had been added, so this week 4.6% up at the moment.

However looking at Regional level the picture is not even.

North west is 13% higher and Yorks Humber 10.6%, South east 10.5% up. North east up 9.5% and London 6.8% although that is driven by the outer London boroughs, no increase so far for inner London overall.

South west just 0.6% up and East Midlands 0.1%.

Then East of England 0.5% down, and West Mids 9.2% down.

Is there is lower take up in West Mids, or a greater spread of several days of LFDs in schools. At the moment 20 of the 30 West Mids LAs have fewer cases in the week so far as compared to the equivalent point last week. Of the unitary councils just Herefordshire and Solihull up.

In the South West the opposite picture most Unitary councils up - importantly for this thread not Torbay though - whereas all Gloucestershire and Devon district councils all down with a single exception. I presume these areas do actually have schools.

@Fferny1

Anyone know whether the advice to isolate post positive school Lft still stand, even if a subsequent negative Pcr?

If the LFT was done in school, yes the negative PCR is irrelevant.

If the LFT was done at home, then the PCR overrides it.

I spent literally hours this morning trying to register my home LFT result. Technical errors with online system, it's quite confusing anyway as it redirects you to report without registering which then talks about a (non existent) bar code not the WR code which is the obvious thing in the test strip. I finally reported by phone and the lady in the other end said she'd experienced similar problems herself sometimes!

Even if LFTs are done at home , I think many won't be reported.

*trying to register my LFT result .... QR code

In the South West the opposite picture most Unitary councils up - importantly for this thread not Torbay though smile - whereas all Gloucestershire and Devon district councils all down with a single exception. I presume these areas do actually have schools. Yes it was a zero today, I imagine the 7 day figure is going to really dip once the cases from the care home drop out.

Police were on local news, only investigating the Sidmouth home, not Exmouth or Torbay. They are waiting for the results of a postmortem.

@JanFebAnyMonth

I spent literally hours this morning trying to register my home LFT result. Technical errors with online system, it's quite confusing anyway as it redirects you to report without registering which then talks about a (non existent) bar code not the WR code which is the obvious thing in the test strip. I finally reported by phone and the lady in the other end said she'd experienced similar problems herself sometimes!

Even if LFTs are done at home , I think many won't be reported.

Although it says narcolepsy, scanning the qr code always works for me

I imagine narcolepsy is an autocorrect fail??

Presumably scanning the QR code only works if you've reached the right place on the NHS website to do that though? Which I couldn't.

@JanFebAnyMonth

I spent literally hours this morning trying to register my home LFT result. Technical errors with online system, it's quite confusing anyway as it redirects you to report without registering which then talks about a (non existent) bar code not the WR code which is the obvious thing in the test strip. I finally reported by phone and the lady in the other end said she'd experienced similar problems herself sometimes!

Even if LFTs are done at home , I think many won't be reported.

I've just done ds' 2nd one. It's all the questions that you have to answer that I think will end up with people thinking that they won't bother. So we have have they been abroad in the last few month etc. It would be better if they could ask for a phone number and text the result, and call if positive and ask these things then. I'm fairly quick on such things and it took me 5 minutes. I can imagine with 3 small children to do, dinner to make and get them to bed a fair number of people will forget or not bother.

We're doing LFTs at home. But I have to admit haven't as yet tried to register any of them (all negative). If we get a positive one, I'm thinking we'd most likely just go and get a PCR test. So the PCR cases might rise as a result of asymptomatic people being channelled into testing via LFTs, with many of those LFTs never recorded at all.

When I've registered my lateral flow results, it hasn't asked anything about being abroad! Literally just personal details and test results. Maybe school pupils get a different set of questions.

Thanks @PatriciaHolm.

@NuttyinNotts

When I've registered my lateral flow results, it hasn't asked anything about being abroad! Literally just personal details and test results. Maybe school pupils get a different set of questions.

That's what I would expect.

Offhand it asks:
If you work/been to school etc
What type of school they're in (nursery/primary/secondary etc)
If they've been abroad
Do you have symptoms?
NHS number (although you can say you don't know)
Phone number and email
Address
School (as well as the test registration site, which is, in this case, the school!)

It would have been good if they could have set up the school ones so you register the above once and then only have to put in the next test number.

@Firefliess

We're doing LFTs at home. But I have to admit haven't as yet tried to register any of them (all negative). If we get a positive one, I'm thinking we'd most likely just go and get a PCR test. So the PCR cases might rise as a result of asymptomatic people being channelled into testing via LFTs, with many of those LFTs never recorded at all.

same here. And reading stuff on here it really doesn't seem to be worth the hassle!

I've had a look at the S/W London boroughs, because I know their infection patterns best. The increases are largely coming in clusters e.g. Hook up from 2 to 10, Tolworth 5 to 11, Earlsfield South 12 to 21, Upper Norwood 6 to 11, Keston 2 to 8, Walton Hersham Road 6 to 11... And so on and on.
The pattern is a high proportion of MSOA dropping still and some flattening. The additional cases are all turning up in little clusters within maybe 15% of MSOA. I don't know the pattern for other regions, but to me this looks like real cases; the chances of false positive LFT driving this pattern are very low. It more reminds me of summer holiday returns in August when I started getting nervous about all the patchy additional cases, except this time I think we're finding the asymptomatic. Which would mean cases will drop like a stone in coming weeks. A big heavy stone, dropped from a height with no wind.

Just delurking to say I've not had to ask random questions about going abroad or symptoms etc when I've reported my and DHs negative LFTs. It is a bit of a faff, but I've had no issues. I believe it is important to report all results of these. The more tests are done then yes positives will go up, but will the rate? This can only be known if negatives are reported too. You can only report tests that were either completed yesterday or today, but I think people should report them.

I’ve just registered my second test (did first one earlier in the week) and didn’t have to answer any of the questions again, and the scanning function worked fine - I’m using an iPhone if that makes a difference. Took 1 minute

That's interesting that others haven't had to answer the questions. Wonder what's different!

@MargaretThursday when I’ve done LFT at council run sites I’ve had to answer those questions when completing it online. Don’t have kids so have no experience of the schools though to compare

Sorry, obviously my questions asked related to work, not school! But I was asked about travel as well as wfh/ooh etc.